New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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2178. 7544
taz get 2 cookies and if 94l forms tonight he gets 5 lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6859
2177. centex
Same as 2PM except they upped to 50%. I guess models coming into agreement is the reason.
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2176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2154. ElConando 11:58 PM GMT on June 21, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
Lots of moisture to work with




Kinda looks like a disorganized chaos in WV.


tonight the first organizing convective cycle commences after 11pm and before 2am to take us into the morning
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Anyone have an oppinion as to where the center of acivity (not coc, so don't go off on me) of 93. (And I'm sure eveyone has an oppinion) but still.
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2174. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
WOW WOW WOW


from 10% this AM too 50% this PM

That is the reality of this, right there.......
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Quoting SavannahStorm:
Wow, SHIPS has 93L at 79 knots in 120 hours...


Previous run had it up to 100 knots.
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2172. GatorWX
Quoting btwntx08:
actually i was the closest i had 40% just 10 more higher i told u it wouldnt stay at 30 % take that


then you win!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


hmmm.... 50 comments in 5 minutes



note even no they are doing some new this year with the % if they where still doing the old way we will be red right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
from the 8pm TWO

FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
50%...Impressed.
Quoting Tazmanian:
WOW WOW WOW


from 10% this AM too 50% this PM


I said earlier that it should have been 50%! As i said earlier today...can't tell me in 48hrs that this won't be at least a TD in 48hrs .....so now they are saying in 48hrs there is a 50/50 chance.......heck i think the chances are even higher than that now....in 48hrs there is little doubt in my mind we will have our first TD and maybe our 1st named storm within the next 48hrs.
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2168. Patrap
93L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

One has to take in to account and respect the Overall Synoptic Presentation which has improved steadily all during the Daylight Hours today.

Im in total support of the NHC 50%.

Its one to watch.

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The 00z SHIPS wasnt as aggressive as the past 3 runs.

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


What about the Keys hurricane? I believe 1933?


1935, Labor Day... but not named.
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sorry I dissapeared cleo 58 was right
Chances are good for 93L I hope it becomes Alex before I go to camp
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Also remember that the NHC could have tools that are not available to us.
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Quoting Grothar:


Bow-wow, am I close?

Haha, I think you've got it! XD
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see what i mean the nhc no more then what we no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
2160. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
245

WHXX04 KWBC 212323

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L



INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 21



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 13.2 67.6 290./11.1

6 14.3 68.8 311./15.8

12 15.0 69.6 314./10.3

18 15.8 71.4 293./19.1

24 16.4 72.6 295./13.1

30 16.8 73.6 296./10.6

36 17.5 75.0 297./15.2

42 18.1 76.2 294./12.4

48 18.5 77.3 294./10.9

54 19.1 78.1 305./ 9.3

60 19.3 79.0 283./ 9.4

66 19.7 80.0 293./10.0

72 20.2 80.7 306./ 7.9

78 20.7 82.0 291./13.8

84 21.0 82.8 291./ 7.8

90 21.5 83.6 304./ 9.1

96 22.0 84.6 292./10.1

102 22.4 85.2 309./ 6.9

108 22.8 85.8 302./ 7.2

114 23.4 86.4 315./ 7.9

120 23.9 86.6 335./ 5.5

126 24.3 86.7 351./ 4.3


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Quoting marmark:
Andrew made it to landfall.


I know, it was upgraded later.
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2157. GatorWX
Quoting TampaSpin:



A little discomforting, eh Tampa??
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
But to say that 93L is not going to develop is pretty foolish considering the conditions it has ahead of it. I do believe the area right before 93L has a chance of development but don't kill off a system.

The NHC also just confirmed that 93L has a good chance by upgrading to 50% and saying that upper level winds are conductive for development.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Lots of moisture to work with



Kinda looks like a disorganized chaos in WV.
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2153. 7544
yeap
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6859
I am thinking "Red" no later than 8am tomorrow morning... possibly at 2am. Seeing as Dmax is in that time frame.
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2151. IKE
I thought they might lower 93L to 20%, but when I saw the GFDL I thought they would keep it at 30%. I never expected a 50% chance with such a positive outlook for TD development.

NHC is the experts. My opinion is simply a guessing game. Just surprised the models don't show much...yet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


hmmm.... 50 comments in 5 minutes = blog RI
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2148. Drakoen
Lots of moisture to work with

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting GatorWX:
Would someone please post the TWO. TIA



oder up


000
ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Link Although 93L's cloud tops warmed earlier today, its overall structure continues to improve, as noted by this loop. We'll have to wait until later tonight to see what happens.
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I am wondering 93L is going to do more than turn north, because if it gets to a certain strength and it feels that weakness, FL may need to be watching.
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WOW WOW WOW


from 10% this AM too 50% this PM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
2143. Grothar
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok what is the only named category five that never made a landfall? Sorry no url to steal an answer from this time


Bow-wow, am I close?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
Wow, SHIPS has 93L at 79 knots in 120 hours...
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2141. GatorWX
Would someone please post the TWO. TIA
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2140. marmark
Quoting BaltOCane:


Camielle and Andrew, but Andrew was upgraded in 2003-04 ish
Andrew made it to landfall.
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Quoting xcool:
good job taz



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If this continues we should see a TCFA before too long.
Doubt it. Let me count up the numbers.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Now Tampa on those models, you really want to give someone heartburn?
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Game OVER BP....your Yaht just sunk.....!
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2134. cg2916
Storm said that the GFS for the past 3 runs has been showing a strengthening in the subtropical ridge. What does this mean for 93L?
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18Z 93L HWRF


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2131. 7544
Quoting IKE:
That should fire everyone up for the evening

that 50%and the gfdl we should see over 3000 post before midnight lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6859
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

#7
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't quote him. He has but a clue of what is going on.


Ok this is coming from a 13 year old kid who right now has 4 Tropical Storms this year already? along with Reedzone,Hurricane 101 and about 15 other peeps. okay!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.