Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010 | +6 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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I agree, I don't see much evidence of a surface low either. There is a very nil amount of vorticity at 850. This system will probably take at least 36 hrs to get going, but I have a feeling once it does, it's going to put on a show given the conditions it has.
Since the models appear to be dropping 93L, could one conclude that the next wave will find a more receptive environment, particularly with all that moisture ahead of it? By the way, that wave reminds me of Felix's infamous track.
Conditions are favorable all the way through the Caribbean. I would find it hard to believe that something organized didn't develop in a day or two.
Cool map!
Yeah
Im going to take a break until later tonight when things calm down a bit.
dude, there is no low at the surface, its not a bo bo. and its not very organized.
Hhhhmmm,yes its tru.
These things take time to mature.
93L is just now gaining some mo..
Beware the slow developer with a lot of TCHP ahead and no real impediments.
A case study may be the Isidore and Lili Systems from 2002
That is the key, explosive development or nothing at all. It ALL depends on when and if this thing gets down to the surface. It may not happen until this thing is about to go over the Yucatan in which case the excellent environment wouldn't matter.
I do have some. Even though environmental conditions are conducive, the model support for this system is coming primarily from the ECMWF and SHIPS. I would have liked to see the GFS jump on board to be certain this will be a depression. In addition, this system lacks a surface circulation which makes it even more difficult to determine what exactly will happen.
Hurricane Lili was the deadliest and costliest hurricane of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season for the United States. Lili was the twelfth named storm, fourth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm developed from a tropical disturbance in the open Atlantic on September 21. It continued westward, affecting the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm, then entered the Caribbean Sea. As it moved west, the storm dissipated while being affected by wind shear south of Cuba, and regenerated when the vertical wind shear weakened. It turned to the northwest and strengthened up to category 2 strength on October 1. Lili made two landfalls in western Cuba later that day, and then entered the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane rapidly strengthened on October 2, reaching Category 4 strength that afternoon. It weakened rapidly thereafter, and hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane on October 3. It moved inland and dissipated on October 6.
Lili caused extensive damage through the Caribbean, particularly to crops and poorly built homes.Mudslides were common on the more mountainous islands, particularly Haiti and Jamaica. In the United States, the storm cut off the production of oil within the Gulf of Mexico, and caused severe damage in parts of Louisiana. Lili was also responsible for severe damage to the barrier islands and marshes in the southern portion of the state. Total damage amounted to $882 million (2002 USD; $1.15 billion 2007 USD), and the storm killed 15 people during its existence.
Hurricane Lili at peak intensity
Formed September 21, 2002
Dissipated October 4, 2002
Highest
winds
145 mph (230 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 938 mbar (hPa; 27.7 inHg)
Fatalities 13 direct, 2 indirect
Damage $882 million (2002 USD)
$1.07 billion (2010 USD)
Areas
affected Windward Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Louisiana
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
#5
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
lol
Guess the hurricane.
the problem with the entire scenario is everything is in place for rapid intensification which models cannot handle.
John Hope
Born:May 14, 1919, Pennsylvania
Died June 13, 2002 Atlanta, Georgia
Few north Georgia residents have had such a positive and long-lasting effect on the people of the United States and the world than quiet, unassuming John Hope. For twenty years Hope was the backbone of severe weather forecasting at The Weather Channel. He became a national icon during the Weather Channel's coverage of Hurricane Hugo, although he had been involved in weather forecasting for most of his adult life.
John Hope grew up in Eastern Pennsylvania where he witnessed the Great Depression first-hand in the heavily industrialized Scranton-Wilkes Barre region. After his mother died when Hope was 16, he began working at a local grocery store to help the family. John joined the Army Air Corps, where he served four years, mostly as flight navigator. For a civilian career John returned to college to get his degree in math, then continued at the University of Illinois School of Meteorology.
His first post-graduate job was with the National Weather Service in Memphis. In 1962 he worked on the meteorology team that helped John Glenn get into space, and returned him safely to earth some five hours later.
As fate would have it, John Hope went on to become one of the people who created the National Hurricane Center in Miami in 1967. As the center was preparing the list of hurricane names for 1969, John suggested Camille as the "C" name, in honor of his daughter. Little did John Hope know that both he and his daughter would make history in 1969. Camille became the second most powerful hurricane to reach land in the history of the United States, and John was covering the storm.
John Coleman came up with the idea of The Weather Channel in 1981. At that time John Hope was wrapping up a 32 year career with the National Weather Service. Hope liked the concept of an around the clock weather network and when Bruce Edwards welcomed what few viewers were tuned in on May 9, 1982, John Hope was there. He served as senior meteorologist and was also seen in front of the camera, helping the struggling cable network through the tough times. He and his family moved to North Georgia, where The Weather Channel is located.
In 1989 Hurricane Hugo struck the coast of the United States in South Carolina. The Category 5 storm did immense damage as high winds and a high tide combined to create a storm surge of unbelievable proportions. John Hope was at the helm at The Weather Channel, calmly showing the storm, predicting the path and urging citizens to evacuate if possible. As the storm passed, letters began to roll in, praising both John Hope and The Weather Channel for its coverage of the hurricane. John had some favorite letters from those broadcasts: those from people thanking him for saving their lives.
In 1992 The Weather Channel had become a premier channel, considered a necessity by many, when Hurricane Andrew took aim at the heavily populated South Florida coast. John Hope was once again called on to lead the coverage, in spite of being 73 years old. Hope took a firm voice, warning people along a fifty mile wide, heavily populated area to evacuate. Andrew struck land near Homestead, Florida, and once again the letters began to pour in, thanking John for saving lives.
And what were you doing up at 3 this morning? LOL Still don't see anything much on the Navy site yet. It will be interesting to see what happens this evening.
Or do we?
http://weatherblog.abc13.com/2010/06/houston-weather-company-predicts-fewer-hurricanes-this-year.ht ml
Hurricane Felix 2007...ding ding ding. end of august and early sept.
or 60%
or 40%
I would say they keep it at 30% and there is no reason I see to suggest otherwise
That track seems too far south for Gilbert?
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