Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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2353. LPStormspotter 12:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: ummm westward i dont see a eastward trend sry agreed.. happens every year . east casters,west casters LA casters...lol we shall see Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 378

2356. MiamiHurricanes09 12:41 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Nope, a cat 2 to cat 3. Just watch my friend very warm water and virtually no shear do the math. Exactly why I said that I'm not ruling out the possibility of RI, but a category 3 is quite a stretch. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2357. stillwaiting 12:41 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Its beeeeeeeeginiiiiiiiing!!!!watch the area I just discussed its starting to explode w/convection and its just begining,TD1 by the 11am,unless the NHC is ultra conservative like w/92L when it was a TD 2 saturday nights ago!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

2358. CyberStorm 12:42 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting StormW: It should develop...I won't speculate on track yet until I get the chance to look at a few more steering layers forecast maps...and until we get a solid development. I will take a look tonight however, at the updated steering layers and analyze the Guidance package. TY Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 211

2359. Stormchaser2007 12:42 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Meanwhile... 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 220031 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2360. MiamiHurricanes09 12:42 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: TPC seeing a circulation trying to form good sign Hmmmm...Let's see. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2362. Hurricanes101 12:42 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting stillwaiting: Its beeeeeeeeginiiiiiiiing!!!!watch the area I just discussed its starting to explode w/convection and its just begining,TD1 by the 11am,unless the NHC is ultra conservative like w/92L when it was a TD 2 saturday nights ago!!! I doubt a TD by 11am Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2363. tropicfreak 12:43 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Nope, a cat 2 to cat 3. Just watch my friend very warm water and virtually no shear do the math. monster. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2366. IKE 12:43 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: written by a bitter Mean Girl? LOL. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2367. ssmate 12:44 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: written by a bitter Mean Girl? LOL Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347

2368. GeoffreyWPB 12:44 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Nope, a cat 2 to cat 3. Just watch my friend very warm water and virtually no shear do the math. No southeast Fla. though. A major shift in steering currents would have to happen. Not likely. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

2369. fire635 12:45 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I doubt a TD by 11am Me too, but I'll stand by my thought of TD by 5pm advisory tomorrow. Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

2370. centex 12:45 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: this was noted from the nws san antonio DISCUSSION... TODAY IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE UPPER HIGH FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24H AND A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AN EASTERLY WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF LA/MS AND WILL MOVE WEST WITH TIME. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY... ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER ON FRIDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PATHWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE OPEN OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF AND GEM (CANADIAN MODEL) RUNS PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS COULD MOVE INTO THE GULF Yea I saw that this afternoon, I think useful for it's generality. Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

2371. clwstmchasr 12:45 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Nope, a cat 2 to cat 3. Just watch my friend very warm water and virtually no shear do the math. A lot of elements are in place for a significant hurricane if this were to develop. The one element against it is climatology. I haven't looked it up but I'm guessing there has been very few major canes in June. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2759

2372. IKE 12:45 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
93L...flosses teeth Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2373. TampaSpin 12:45 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
I would not rely on any model until 93L develops a LLC! Then let the models cycle 3 times before one can believe something. Right now all can do is look at the dynamics of what appears to be in the pipeline, the timing and format a guess as i have done! Its just a guess. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2374. BenBIogger 12:45 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Get ready for a disappointing night. JMO Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

2376. HaboobsRsweet 12:46 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting StormW: I'm gonna take a gander at things shortly...but you could be absolutely right...the NHC says that the coverage of those 3 models are limited to the near vicinity of the storm...I believe the value was something like 6-8 or 6-10 degrees at the most. This time tomorrow night I will feel more comfortable looking at tracks and strengths. Need to see if it comes together tonight and need to let the models run a time or two to intialize on the system. If this front does drop down from the north a more eastward track is not out of hte question. If I had to pick a place today I would look between texas LA border and Destin. But my thoughts on that can easly change tomorrow. Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2377. spathy 12:46 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Thank you Storm. I feel a little better about my train of tropical thought now. Quoting StormW: It should develop...I won't speculate on track yet until I get the chance to look at a few more steering layers forecast maps...and until we get a solid development. I will take a look tonight however, at the updated steering layers and analyze the Guidance package. JMO But model runs now are kinda like pulling on the reigns without a horse attached and expecting your direction and speed to change. Edit But the models do suggest that a horse may come your way soon. Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490

2378. MiamiHurricanes09 12:46 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting stillwaiting: Its beeeeeeeeginiiiiiiiing!!!!watch the area I just discussed its starting to explode w/convection and its just begining,TD1 by the 11am,unless the NHC is ultra conservative like w/92L when it was a TD 2 saturday nights ago!!! Too much caffeine maybe? As you just read in the TWD, 93L has a broad surface low. Unless this tightens up I wouldn't expect tropical depression status. I'm going to say a good 30 hours before any serious consideration of a tropical depression. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2379. BenBIogger 12:47 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: I would not rely on any model until 93L develops a LLC! Then let the models cycle 3 times before one can believe something. Right now all can do is look at the dynamics of what appears to be in the pipeline, the timing and format a guess as i have done! Its just a guess. agree Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

2381. stillwaiting 12:47 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: TPC seeing a circulation trying to form good sign looks like my guess was pretty good,I just used sat for analysis of my position,now let see if we have a TD1 by 11am!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

2382. IKE 12:47 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: Get ready for a disappointing night. JMO Comebacks.... (1)Downcaster (2)Troll (3)Ignored Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2383. GeoffreyWPB 12:47 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: I would not rely on any model until 93L develops a LLC! Then let the models cycle 3 times before one can believe something. Right now all can do is look at the dynamics of what appears to be in the pipeline, the timing and format a guess as i have done! Its just a guess. Models...Shmodels...93L will be TD1 by Wednesday. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

2384. MiamiHurricanes09 12:48 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: Get ready for a disappointing night. JMO Since you are imitating BenBlogger I'm just going to well you know. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2385. Hurricanes101 12:48 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting IKE: Comebacks.... (1)Downcaster (2)Troll (3)Ignored lmao Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2386. tropicfreak 12:48 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Too much caffeine maybe? As you just read in the TWD, 93L has a broad surface low. Unless this tightens up I wouldn't expect tropical depression status. I'm going to say a good 30 hours before any serious consideration of a tropical depression. Or in another words, a closed circulation Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2387. MiamiHurricanes09 12:48 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting IKE: Comebacks.... (1)Downcaster (2)Troll (3)Ignored You know it, lol. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2389. CaneWarning 12:49 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
I'll be more comfortable with the models after the hurricane hunters fly into the system. Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2390. MiamiHurricanes09 12:49 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: Or in another words, a closed circulation Yes a closed circulation, but it also has to be tight too. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2392. MiamiHurricanes09 12:50 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Ignore!LOL LOL, indeed. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2393. mchuter 12:51 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Hi there Patrap, Drak, and Storm W.....long time no chat!! Just tracking this little puppy from Slidell, LA. I was reading the posts all day...I really appreciate your imput!! Thanks again...Mary :-) Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

2394. BenBIogger 12:51 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Since you are imitating BenBlogger I'm just going to well you know. ? Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

2395. MiamiHurricanes09 12:51 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: lmao LOL! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2397. stillwaiting 12:52 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Too much caffeine maybe? As you just read in the TWD, 93L has a broad surface low. Unless this tightens up I wouldn't expect tropical depression status. I'm going to say a good 30 hours before any serious consideration of a tropical depression. actually I had sprite with dinner tonight(no caffeine)....watch and learn as convection explodes over the area near 14.8N,72.5W... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

2398. 1900hurricane 12:52 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 310 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010 .DISCUSSION... WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY NOTED IN/ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN AND WE SHOULD SEE PERHAPS A SMIDGE MORE FOR TOMORROW AS WV IMAGERY LOOKS TO BE HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE/LIFT FROM THE EAST. PER THE SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODELS...A GOOD CHC OF POPS ON TAP FOR WEDS. PWS PROGGED TO INCREASE AOA 2.1" AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT PRESENT NOT SEEING MUCH BEYOND SOME LOCAL- LY HEAVY RAINS FOR WEDS AS WE SEEM TO LACK A WELL DEFINED LOW-LVL BOUNDARY. BUT GIVEN THE DAYTIME HEATING/EXPECTED HIGH PWS WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS FOR WEDS. A RETURN TO THE MORE NORMAL 20% OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE POPS THEREAFTER. AS FOR EXTENDED GUIDANCE...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYS- TEM/SOMETHING FOR NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS TRACK AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN...BUT THEN THINGS GET SHAKY FOR ITS EVENTUAL MOTION WITHIN THE GULF. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE PROGS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE SRN STATES. LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS CRP IN ITS SIGHTS BUT THIS SHOULD/IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE DAYS GO ON. 41 Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10367

2400. watchingnva 12:52 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: ? you, my friend, are not slIck...:) like how i did that?...yea...lol Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2401. Drakoen 12:53 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
RAMSDIS satellite loops shows a lower to mid level cyclonic circulation just south of 15N near 70W. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

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