New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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1427. 47n91w
Give me a month, and I'll be joining the 30-something group.

Quoting StormW:


No...I'm 30...something...something like 22 years past
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1426. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Might have to be a big one


You should see the Filter Wrench
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting cg2916:


Dry air not a problem.


Dry air won't be a problem for this system, in the Caribbean, at least. It's partly associated with the monsoon trof. If you look across Northern South America, you'll notice that there is hardly any convection it is normally loaded with convection. That is because the trof moved north out into the Caribbean and helped spark 93L.
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Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks

fix a flat, mosquito/bug repellant
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Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go run out and get a New Oil Filter for the House.




Might have to be a big one
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting cg2916:


Dry air not a problem.


Oh noes, it's a DUSTCANE! Everyone needs to evacuate before it gets to cat -5!!
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Wow the Carribean is getting soaked, which is very bad news for haiti, if something develops here it will take a while with the size of this thing.
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1419. Patrap
Im gonna go run out and get a New Oil Filter for the House.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
ever been a year when hurricane's made landfall in every state along the Gulf coast?????,not the same hurricane but 5 different canes???
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Can anyone tell me how to adjust the size of the page? The text runs off the right side and I have to scoot the page over to read it.

BE NICE!
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Good afternoon. I was relieved to see the 12z EURO. I don't know how anything will play out. But that was a hell of a lot better than a major cane. They may be exciting to track and talk about. But the reality of one sucks worse than a lot of things I've come across. And I've been around a while. :)

Ok. There's my downcasting moment for the day. But if it works I'll become a downcasting fool. :) The only local opinion I could get was from Houston. Not very local to me but they said the models are having a hard time gauging the strength of the Bermuda High. We'll see what happens.
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1414. Patrap

2015 UTC RGB

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting CaneWarning:


As long as it doesn't get kicked to the N.E. once it gets into the Gulf.
If any state should be concerned with 93L (which at this point in time they shouldn't) it would be Texas. But we are still a loooooooooooong ways before I know that what I said will be accurate.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1411. cg2916


Dry air not a problem.
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Quoting gator23:

it pours actually LOL


Maybe it does "pore" in this case...LOL
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1408. xcool



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Quoting winter123:

No it's actually a dead pixel :(


Dammit! I hate it when that happens...
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1405. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Check the SST box,and MSLP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1404. gator23
Quoting gordydunnot:
My synopsis for this season is the gulf coast could have done well this year without one. But as they say when its rains it pores.

it pours actually LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


A little Windex and a papertowel will take care of that

No it's actually a dead pixel :(
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Bye Bye Shear, wowza


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everything changes everyday....
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1399. Patrap
92L Floater - Dvorak Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
I created this myself, learning is fun, when used with weather..

12z RAOB from Curacao...

Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Celia now at 90 mph.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Quoting winter123:

I think I see a pinhole eye


A little Windex and a papertowel will take care of that
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Highly unlikely. WNW motion will probably continue for quite some time.

If it continues WNW I will probably get some rain out of it like Dr.Masters suggests.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Could be. But as of now I doubt that there is one well-defined circulation.


yeah, the whole areas pressure is dropping, and its gonna play a huge role in the track how far south or north the low forms
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My synopsis for this season is the gulf coast could have done well this year without one. But as they say when its rains it pores.
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1390. Patrap
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

A lot of people discount long-range hand-held radios because of cellular phones. However, during and after Ike, there was no cellular service in the greater Houston/Galveston area for several days to a week or more depending on the area you were in. If you live within a few miles of family, it is worth the $50 bucks or so to get a pair.


Thats a good one for sure.

I will add it to my Prep Entry soon.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting extreme236:
NWS PR forecasting the wave near 55W to approach the area by Wednesday/Thursday and bring active weather there.
Yeah, that's the wave the models took to Florida yesterday.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Just looking at the visible you can see there is basically no spin, its gotta drop the pressures a bit more to get it goin, and the buoys around are saying that it is dropping
Could be. But as of now I doubt that there is one well-defined circulation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Highly unlikely. WNW motion will probably continue for quite some time.


As long as it doesn't get kicked to the N.E. once it gets into the Gulf.
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1383. Patrap
Caribbean - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Mini Oreos

A lot of people discount long-range hand-held radios because of cellular phones. However, during and after Ike, there was no cellular service in the greater Houston/Galveston area for several days to a week or more depending on the area you were in. If you live within a few miles of family, it is worth the $50 bucks or so to get a pair.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS PR forecasting the wave near 55W to approach the area by Wednesday/Thursday and bring active weather there.
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1380. Patrap
Current Severe Weather

Heat Advisory

Statement as of 1:42 PM CDT on June 21, 2010

... Heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

Heat indices outside of rain areas will remain in the 105 to 110
degree range this afternoon. The chance of rain is expected to
increase on Tuesday... therefore the heat advisory is not expected
to be extended in time.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The heat index is a measure of how hot it feels when the effects
of humidity are combined with the temperature. A heat index of
105 degrees is considered the level where many people begin to
experience extreme discomfort or physical stress. The heat index
is measured under shady conditions... and direct exposure to
sunlight can increase the heat index as much as 15 degrees.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.



22/TD


Local Storm Report


06/21/2010 0258 PM

Lakefront Airport, Orleans Parish.

Marine tstm wind m44 mph, reported by ASOS.


Pkwnd 03038 at 1958z.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


At this point...I don't see 93L affecting south Fla.
Highly unlikely. WNW motion will probably continue for quite some time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to be improving on satellite imagery was we speak, but there is no one well-defined circulation. If you look at 850 millibar vorticity you can see multiple vorticies all over the place. Could take a couple days before TD status, but I think it could be accomplished within 48 hours. I think it could be a concern to the GOM states if it does develop.


Just looking at the visible you can see there is basically no spin, its gotta drop the pressures a bit more to get it goin, and the buoys around are saying that it is dropping
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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