Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2501 - 2551

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 — Blog Index

2501. Patrap 1:22 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
0045 UTC 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

2503. txag91met 1:23 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Skyepony: StormW~ 18zGFS doesn't develop 93L. Do you think that is how it will play out? It is possible...like to see the 00z ECMWF run before I rule it out. Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

2504. Ameister12 1:23 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting futuremet: Everything will be okay if the trolls stay away. This year has been good so far troll-wise. Let's hope it stays that way. Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3517

2505. HaboobsRsweet 1:23 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting skepticall2: I took it to mail Ah I was curious myself...heard he was pretty sick for awhile and also saw his sisters post. Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2507. weathersp 1:23 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

2508. Patrap 1:24 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
15N 69W There abouts Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

2509. mahep1911 1:25 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Good Evening all looks like a early start this year Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 791

2511. pottery 1:25 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Everyone is waiting to see a spin with 93L down to the surface. I fear that if/when we see that, there will be no stopping it.............. until it gets to land, that is. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

2513. Patrap 1:26 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 0000 UTC Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

2514. MiamiHurricanes09 1:26 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Bastardi: Even More Hurricanes Expected this Season, Three Could Hit Oil Spill Carly Porter By Carly Porter, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer Jun 21, 2010; 7:17 AM ET The 2010 hurricane season is set to become even more extreme, with 18-21 named storms now in the forecast, and some of those storms will impact the oil spill in the Gulf. AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has upped his original forecast from 16-18 storms, to 18-21, with at least eight impacts and six hurricanes, and two or three of those hurricanes will have major landfalls. Only five years in the 160 years of records had 18 or more storms in a season. "The hurricane season should have several hits on the U.S. coast from July through September, mainly in the Southeast and Gulf," said Bastardi. Bastardi suggests that based on years with a similarly active hurricane forecast as 2010, at least two hurricanes and one tropical storm are set to move through the area of the Gulf oil spill by the end of the tropical season. As many as three other tropical systems have the potential to track close enough to the spill to impact cleanup and capping operations, as well as other oil rig operations in the Gulf. "Above-normal tropical activity should feature four named storms in July, with one or two impacting the coastal areas," said Bastardi. August will also feature an influx of storms. "August should have six named storms, with two of three impacts on the U.S. coastline," said Bastardi. Bastardi predicts the heart of this season's storms will occur between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15. "Not only will that period be more active than normal, but the run up to it, and the time after it," said Bastardi. "There could be a period where there is a group of naming, two or three going on at once and five in a 15-20 day period." He is confident that tropical activity will occur before mid-August in the Gulf of Mexico, the estimated time frame at which BP expects the oil leak to be capped. Back in February, Bastardi based his predictions for the 2010 season on the tropical activity of analog years 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2008. Most of the past analog years Bastardi considered in his 2010 forecast for the Gulf had tropical activity before the middle of August. Even later into the summer, hurricane season will continue to ramp up. "By late August and September, the hurricane season should be front and center," said Bastardi. "Expect eight named storms in September and three or four U.S. impacts." An extreme winter and now an above-normal hurricane season could place 2010 in the record books. "It's hard to fathom another 12-month period where such wild swings would make weather so significant for such a large area of the population," said Bastardi. Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2516. AllStar17 1:28 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
REPOST 5:00 pm EDT National Hurricane Center Advisories: GRAPHICS UPDATE Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

2517. mcluvincane 1:28 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting pottery: Everyone is waiting to see a spin with 93L down to the surface. I fear that if/when we see that, there will be no stopping it.............. until it gets to land, that is. Very well said Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

2518. bappit 1:28 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Convection is bare but the structure is excellent: Say what? Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4368

2520. watchingnva 1:29 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
so....as of current rgb/vis/ir sats....14.8/69 sound about right??? Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2521. stormwatcherCI 1:29 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr: What Lat/Lon cause I don't see a center. 14N and 69W. Clear as a bell. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

2522. TampaSpin 1:29 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Skyepony: For 93L I'm thinking Tropical Storm, cat 1 at most. Conditions aren't as good as they appear & the real show is behind it at ~58W. Check the 850 vort map. 58W is further along in surface spin & an anticyclone is building over it, not 93L. 93L is just enjoying diffluence aloft being on the west edge of it. Also the air will cool over 58W first, giving it the advantage each night as they compete for water vapor. You very well could be correct as the 850mb Vorticity is much stronger there as noted......i would think they would be to close for both to develop. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2524. KoritheMan 1:30 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
New blog on 93L. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429

2525. MiamiHurricanes09 1:30 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Images for post 2514. Want scary graphs? Member Since:* September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2526. Drakoen 1:31 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Firing on the western side: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2527. FLWeatherFreak91 1:31 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: Is it just me, or is this thing BIGGER than Ike in radius? It has a long way to go to develop and may shed some of the excess stuff far from the center, but still... Massive wave... It will contract when the circulation gets going, if it foes that is. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3459

2528. hydrus 1:31 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: Is it just me, or is this thing BIGGER than Ike in radius? It has a long way to go to develop and may shed some of the excess stuff far from the center, but still... Massive wave... 92L was way larger when it was in the Central Atlantic. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14252

2529. Hurricanes101 1:32 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Celia up to 100mph Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2532. kimoskee 1:33 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
when did NHC upgrade to a 50% chance of becoming a cyclone? What is the chance of it increasing further in the next 12 hrs? Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

2533. JRRP 1:35 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Want scary graphs? this is from the last season Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

2534. bappit 1:35 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Patrap: 0045 UTC 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively. Yep, very disorganized, like you say Centex. I'm inclined to write this one off. No center, no nothing. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4368

2535. futuremet 1:37 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting P451: 93L 9 Hour IR Loop 30 Minute Increments per frame Ending 915PM ET Great structure, but very weak circulation. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

2536. MiamiHurricanes09 1:37 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting JRRP: this is from the last season Amazing how accurate they are. Time for the shutters. Lol. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2537. Patrap 1:37 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

2539. Stormchaser2007 1:38 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Looks like 93L is going to consolidate tonight. We still have people writing this off...so impatient. Tropical cyclone formation does not take 12 hours. Its a process. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2540. TampaSpin 1:38 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
ONe can see on the Wind Barbs that a Surface Low is forming.....HERE WE GO! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2542. weatherwatcher12 1:38 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting bappit: Yep, very disorganized, like you say Centex. I'm inclined to write this one off. No center, no nothing. It is not disorganized. Well convection wise maybe, but structurally as Drak said it is excellent. Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

2544. pottery 1:39 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting kimoskee: when did NHC upgrade to a 50% chance of becoming a cyclone? What is the chance of it increasing further in the next 12 hrs? 1- at 8:00pm 2- dont know for sure, but..... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

2545. Hurricanes101 1:39 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting bappit: Yep, very disorganized, like you say Centex. I'm inclined to write this one off. No center, no nothing. You forgot something SARCASM: ON Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2546. Grothar 1:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
From this image, it won't probably be long before it starts trying to wrap around that large circulation. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519

2547. fire635 1:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: wow d-min is brutalising 93L I wouldnt say its being "brutalized" by any means Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

2548. MiamiHurricanes09 1:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Looks like 93L is going to consolodate tonight. We still have people writing this off...so impatient. Tropical cyclone formation does not take 12 hours. Its a process. Especially that this is just the genesis, 93L just begun, long ways to go. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2549. Patrap 1:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

2551. TampaSpin 1:42 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12: It is not disorganized. Well convection wise maybe, but structurally as Drak said it is excellent. EXCELLENT.....there is hardly much at 850mb Vorticity....that is not an Excellent sign IMO! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

Viewing: 2501 - 2551

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters