New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting gator23:

wow, lol, no dont even joke about that. Anyway I am asking for calm, JFV would already be packing up Abuela/Grandma and evacuating.


LOL.....Ya!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
0z GFS ensembles by Day 6 already have the ridge pushing the trough out of the way and building back in over the east. 6 days isn't enough time for 93L to reach the north gulf coast.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
Quoting TampaSpin:


The stronger it becomes, the more Northward He goes!
Quoting Ivanhater:


The ensembles have a weaker solution which is why it does not feel the weakness, both the Euro and GFS show a trough breaking down the ridge and if the system is a strong one, it will feel it


Exactly
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Anyone have me on ignore...


I do, I can't see anything you write.
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571. IKE
12Z NOGAPS
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570. xcool





DARK GREEN MEANING T.S/
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Levi32:


Obviously the trough wasn't near that strong just one run before. There is some iffyness on the model as to how weak the ridge will be. Besides, the ECMWF having all its ensemble members to the west of the operational says something.


The ensembles have a weaker solution which is why it does not feel the weakness, both the Euro and GFS show a trough breaking down the ridge and if the system is a strong one, it will feel it
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Quoting gator23:

wow, lol, no dont even joke about that. Anyway I am asking for calm, JFV would already be packing up Abuela/Grandma and evacuating.


LMAO
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Quoting Drakoen:


And obviously a trough would make more sense considering climatology. And obviously the other models feature the same mid latitude trough.


The stronger it becomes, the more Northward He goes!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Pretty disturbing video from the GOM
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Appears HWRF track is more northerly





Cue the models are no good initially posts.


Notice there's no Hurricane, it looks like the HWRF is taking the GFS route, weak storm to Florida.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Anyone have me on ignore...


If they did, how could they answer you? lol

Think about that for a second lol
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Quoting Drakoen:


And obviously a trough would make more sense considering climatology. And obviously the other models feature the same mid latitude trough.


But then we just had the hottest week of June on record in the southeast US. The ridge is big and strong and isn't going away. That trough is riding the northern periphery far to the north. It may not be able to recurve it that much. I'd like to see where the 12z ECMWF has it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Are you the NEW JFV.....LoL....just kidding!

wow, lol, no dont even joke about that. Anyway I am asking for calm, JFV would already be packing up Abuela/Grandma and evacuating.
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Quoting Levi32:


Obviously the trough wasn't near that strong just one run before. There is some iffyness on the model as to how weak the ridge will be. Besides, the ECMWF having all its ensemble members to the west of the operational says something.


And obviously a trough would make more sense considering climatology. And obviously the other models feature the same mid latitude trough.
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Appears HWRF track is more northerly





Cue the models are no good initially posts.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I don't think so considering this big trough shown on both the ECMWF and the GFS




Joe Bastardi seems to believe a ridge will build and curve the storm westward into LA or TX.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
My forecast for 93L is:
80mph hurricane
landfall at yucatan(55% probablity) or:
100mph hurricane
Texas landfall(40% probablity)
My Forecast:
1)There are 10,000 blog entries prior to 93L becoming a named storm.
2)1200 bloggers will be poofed prior to any landfall.
3)1200 posts will state a Cat 5 is comming to S. Florida.
4) Some People will start boarding up within 3 days.
5) 600 posts will call this a fish storm, even though unlikely.
6) Someone will claim 100 degree waters in the Gulf.
7) 500 posts will have graphics of prior storms, 10 will claim Andrew is comming.
8) Several bloggers will tell you they know it is comming to them because the racoons are behaving oddly.
9) Rapidly intensifying will be stated 300 times.
10) I have a cruise on the 24th, should I go.
11) I'm in Iceland, any chance the outerbands affect me.
12) This thing is moving Southwesr over the last 10 minutes, I know it, will be stated a few times.
Just my predictions.
5)
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Quoting twhcracker:


yes human nature, especially since we are all poised for a nightmare season that is not yet begun but due any minute...


TW --- are you in the P-cola area?
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Below is what i posted on my site...NO WISHCASTING AT ALL....just facts as i see them...

11:30 AM on June 21, 2010
Invest 93L has be declared by the NHC. The potential for a storm to form from this Invest is very high and very alarming as Models are starting to show a very strong system in the GOM by Saturday or Sunday. Not only is the Waters very warm above normal, but the Sheer forecast for this time period is NO Sheer to only some sheer as high less than 15kts. A NAMED STORM IS COMING! Currently, there is little Vorticity in association with 93L but, Divergence and Convergence is on the rise so Voriticity will be coming as the Conditions for development with no Sheer is increasing by each passing minute. Without sounding like a WishCaster, but this has the potential to become not only our first named storm of the year but, also our first Major Hurricane of the year! JUST SAYIN!

Also, we need to watch the Bahamas also, for a possible spinner as well to possibly come together as we might just have 2 at the same time coming together. DAM!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't think so considering this big trough shown on both the ECMWF and the GFS




Obviously the trough wasn't near that strong just one run before. There is some iffyness on the model as to how weak the ridge will be. Besides, the ECMWF having all its ensemble members to the west of the operational says something.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks


Do you own any camping supplies? A propane camp stove is real handy. Ours got us through Katrina and Wilma in Miami (total of 3 weeks no electricity between the two storms). Stock up on propane canisters for it. Also, make sure you have simple things handy like a GOOD manual can opener, large soup pot (in case you have a boil water mandate), and if you have a generator, make sure you have some box fans handy that you can use off the generator to help make up for lack of air conditioning. I am sure I will think of more things that came in handy. If I do I will list them later...
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Quoting leelee75k:
Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have.

anyone else?

see #529, clothes pins
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Quoting gator23:

I have read it. I am trying to prevent some people in here from jumping to conculsions about landfall. NO LLC


Not jumping to conclusions... This system has the potential to become huge. Everybody needs to monitor it over the next few days to see what comes of it IF anything
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thanks boyznme!

Another great suggestion and one I didn't think of.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
You guys want to know where 93L is going? Here is a map I created yesterday for you guys



*rolls eyes
Haha! My beach house in La Romana, DR is safe! Thank you.
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Quoting scott39:
Thank you

no worries, we have both been on here a long time without incident. I respet your opinions and I would not want any bad blood between us because of a misunderstanding.
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544. BDAwx
Quoting weathersp:
Last Night's 0z Euro...



that is so cool!!! :D
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Quoting Levi32:


The general direction of those ensemble members makes more sense than the exaggerated recurve into Mobile that the operational run had last night.


I don't think so considering this big trough shown on both the ECMWF and the GFS


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i am a long time lurker -since 2003
i just looked at the gfs 850 voricty model
what is every ones take on that ??
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Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks


Frozen jugs of water - they more you can make the better - I found that even a regular water bottle of ice was great for keeping things cool - and then to drink.

If you don't currently have one - a line to hang wet things on - haven't gone through a storm yet that something didn't get soaked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks


Propane gas tanks for your Grill or briquetts which ever you use.....i have 3 full tanks during the season i keep.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Link

Thanks!
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You guys want to know where 93L is going? Here is a map I created yesterday for you guys



*rolls eyes
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536. xcool
TampaSpin LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have.

anyone else?
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Quoting gator23:

hey scott, I sent you mail.
Thank you
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Quoting Drakoen:
Ascat shows a sharp tropical wave but no closed low.


That's a step towards it, likely that this might develop a close surface circulation in about 24-36 hours from now. Its a wait and see situation, personally I believe the NHC will hold 93L either at 20% or 30% yellow.
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Quoting gator23:

I have read it. I am trying to prevent some people in here from jumping to conculsions about landfall. NO LLC


Are you the NEW JFV.....LoL....just kidding!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks


clothes pins!! There is just no limit to the uses for these nifty little devices. Hold a tarp together, hang up those wet clothes you cant dry, hang up the camping dishes to dry, basically anything you can or need to hold closed or hang up!! We are never without them.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.