Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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3352. weatherwatcher12 5:37 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Larger view Convection of both sides of 93L Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

3353. xcool 5:37 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
GOOD JOB ROB.LOOK AT 93L GOOD Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3354. xcool 5:38 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
OMY Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3355. Levi32 5:38 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
0z CMC shows development of 93L but is just plain weird....showing a 2nd system that tries to combine with it in the gulf. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

3356. weatherwatcher12 5:38 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: its alright lol i'll allow it too and mine :) lol Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

3357. futuremet 5:39 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Consecutive storms slamming FL! Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

3358. xcool 5:39 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
CMC SHOWS 2 STORMS Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3359. Levi32 5:39 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
The CMC solution is very unlikely....2 storms won't form that close together. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

3360. xcool 5:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3361. TampaSpin 5:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Looks like 93L is getting hit by higher Sheer unexpectedly. Looks to be the most important factor of its inabiliity to get going! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3362. futuremet 5:40 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 0z CMC shows development of 93L but is just plain weird....showing a 2nd system that tries to combine with it in the gulf. Levi, this is going to be a complex scenario. We might possibly have two interacting systems two track. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

3363. EricSFL 5:41 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
The GFDL has created a very "GUSTAVISH" possible track. Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

3364. futuremet 5:41 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Good night. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

3365. StormGoddess 5:41 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Looks like 93L is getting hit by higher Sheer unexpectedly. Looks to be the most important factor of its inabiliity to get going! Coolness! :) Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 570

3367. Levi32 5:42 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting futuremet: Levi, this is going to be a complex scenario. We might possibly have two interacting systems two track. Who knows....that would be wild. Goodnight. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

3368. Levi32 5:43 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Looks like 93L is getting hit by higher Sheer unexpectedly. Looks to be the most important factor of its inabiliity to get going! It's not getting sheared. Shear is around it not over it. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

3369. Levi32 5:44 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
93L was never expected to develop fast. It is a complex situation with a lot of heat that has to get bundled, and that process does not happen rapidly. Nothing I have seen so far was unexpected. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

3370. TampaSpin 5:44 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting xcool: Dang.......that better not happen...gotta say tho....the GFDL has always had a decent history of being fairly close! I sure hope its wrong this time. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3372. xcool 5:46 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
TampaSpin IFIFIF HAPPEN .I;M NOT LEAVE. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3373. EricSFL 5:46 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Where do you live xcool? Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

3375. xcool 5:48 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
SLIDELL LA .RIGHT BY mississippi gulf coast Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3377. xcool 5:49 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Link HERE Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3378. reedzone 5:49 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Here's a map I made earlier explaining the conditions around 93L and it's short term movement, in my opinion of course.. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3379. EricSFL 5:50 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting xcool: SLIDELL LA .RIGHT BY mississippi gulf coast If a hurricane were to threaten your area xcool, I suggest you follow the evacuation orders as necessary, especially for the safety of your family. Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

3380. xcool 5:51 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
WT-- 0K WT-- Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3381. xcool 5:51 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
EricSFL SEE MY GIRL FRIEND & SON LEAVE NOT ME . Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3384. xcool 5:54 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
I'M AT HIGH -RISK AREA FOR LANDFALL 2010 HURRICANESEASON. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3385. KoritheMan 5:54 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Dang.......that better not happen...gotta say tho....the GFDL has always had a decent history of being fairly close! I sure hope its wrong this time. GFDL is known to have a poleward bias. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

3386. EricSFL 5:55 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
If a hurricane cat 3 or greater were to threatten the Miami metro area, I would certainly not stay here. House roofs here in SFL are not built to withstand such windspeeds... Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

3388. xcool 5:55 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
EricSFL I STAY FOR DRIY BI--- IN 2005 LOL LOL Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3389. JVGazeley 5:56 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
The bizarre new CMC run; where does that second system come from? Is that the wave behind being pulled past 93L to the north? Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

3390. Levi32 5:57 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM: Possibly trying to pick up the remains of 92l? It's not 92L. It's the wave behind 93L currently approaching the windwards. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

3391. WatchingThisOne 5:57 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Here comes the 0z GFDL forecasting a Cat 3 in the Gulf of Mexico. Watch everyone scream "It's alive!" now. It was always alive....it never died today. It's getting close to decision time at the DWH site. I read recently that time to get things shut down (as much as that can be accomplished) and vessels out of the way was about 110 hours. The 12Z model runs tomorrow are going to be important ... hope 93L has an identifiable center, enough circ and a good read on forward speed to get them initialized properly. If they have to move off the DWH site, expect a 10-day setback in relief well operations. They are "ahead of schedule" and are projecting the kill in the second week of August (not sure how they are ahead of schedule because earlier projections were for late July/early August). Would sure be nice if this one stayed weak and headed west. Those drillers need to stay on task. Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3393. xcool 5:59 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
btwntx08:? Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3394. xcool 6:00 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
..SPECIAL FEATURES... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N69W ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 15N71W TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W MOVING WNW 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO 20N67W AND WITHIN 125/150 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3396. xcool 6:01 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
F4PHANTOM NOT92L .NEW WAVE Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3397. TampaSpin 6:02 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Levi32: It's not getting sheared. Shear is around it not over it. Levi i just zoomed in and i gotta disagree with you....it is getting hit by around 20kts of sheer..... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3399. EricSFL 6:03 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
At the moment, the wave behind 93L has better 850 vort. than 93L. Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

3401. xcool 6:04 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
btwntx08 00Z NGP TX ? Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

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