93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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I suggest everyone to stay on topic and behave properly, admin out on full force right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
Isn't it a little early for the trolls to be out? LOL


Too bad Taz isn't here to spay them.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
93L may be the ugliest TD I have ever seen if it does in fact get classified lol

needs to wrap up more
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4249. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon supposed to take off at 1430 UTC. Current UTC time is 1430 UTC.


Probably takding off right now.
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Quoting IKE:


What you're seeing...er hoping...is that it hits you.


agreed
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The southwest coast of Florida is also South Florida and we are way below normal for June,
Check your stats first

Quoting Buhdog:
South Florida way ahead of schedule YTD as far as rain is concerned.

Link
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Quoting Floodman:
Isn't it a little early for the trolls to be out? LOL


its never too early
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4245. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4032. Enforcer001
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.


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4244. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

iam not seeing this that strong and why qouote me zack and u dont post other stuff besides what i post also ppl dont like stormkat


What you're seeing...er hoping...is that it hits you.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Isn't it a little early for the trolls to be out? LOL
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Recon supposed to take off at 1430 UTC. Current UTC time is 1430 UTC.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
What models are reliaable at this time with 93L or do we need to wait until it is more north in the gulf?


Wait til the system strengthens; most of the models are wonky with weaker features. Expect to see some serious variance in the models as this one ramps up some
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Both jim williams,and mark sudduth have different opinons on invest 93l.


Where do you see this? I like Mark. I met him at a Lowe's once.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Will the NHC issue oil surge forecasts this season?? Just another 97 degree day on the bayou!!
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Recon hasn't started yet for 93L, but for the BP oil spill there is a recon
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
4232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Enforcer001:
epsilon was not annular...the last annular hurricane in the atlantic was isabel in 03

KOTG, go back to school.
see ya bye have a nice life catch you later adios
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Quoting Enforcer001:
epsilon was not annular...the last annular hurricane in the atlantic was isabel in 03

KOTG, go back to school.


He said it could act like one, like Epsilon acted like one. Not that it was one.

He's just trying to make a point that he thinks Celia has a chance of weakening slower compared to other storms in similar conditions. No hard feelings.
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I agree and it's wreckless to say Tampa is in the clear. Let's put it this way
A tropical system moving north hundreds of miles to the west of Tampa can still cause severe weather associated with outerrain bands.

Quoting Jeff9641:


They shouldn't say Tampa is in the clear tho.
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4229. aquak9
enforcer- altestic

you're gonna end up banned

quit with the personal attacks
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Since 1921!! Doesn't get much clearer than that!
Clear from hurricanes and clear complacency in Tampa.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yup...lots of good updates.


Really?? Wow ...I need to find that.
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4225. cg2916
A. 25/1800Z - FIX/INVEST TIME
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST - MISSION IDENTIFIER
C. 25/1430Z DEPARTURE - TIME
D. 17.5N 83.0W FORECAST - POSITION
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z - TIME ON STATION
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT - ALTITUDE(S) ON STATION
G. (None) - REMARKS (if needed)
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4224. Buhdog
South Florida way ahead of schedule YTD as far as rain is concerned.

Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, you just made that graph for nothing. HH take off at 17:00 UTC, the one that just took off is headed to investigate the oil spill.


Correct - it was the 06Z run that was scrubbed, the 18Z run is still on. They will be looking for COC around 17.5N,83W.
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Quoting btwntx08:
Quoting hurrkat05:
i"ll be back in 4 hours when 93L is classified the first tropical depression of the 2010 season..right now with the trough deepening in the rockies i would say the central gom somewhere between lafayette and pensecola has to pay very close attention to this..alex will will start this hurricane season out with a bang..i pity the the problems the central gom wil have with the oil..it realy doesn't matter if alex lands on the la coast we still going to have to deal with oil for lake pontchatrain...the best case scenario for us is alex passes to the east of biloxi but that makes it worse for the fla beaches oil will start to roll there way..the bottom line its a no win situation when it comes to the oil...it will be better for la the oil will be pushed south away from us if this track materializes..

no way no jose this is gonna be weaker so more wnw


His track is decent, dude.... anywhere between Houston and Panama need to watch this... but more West is also possible.
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What models are reliaable at this time with 93L or do we need to wait until it is more north in the gulf?
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4216. Patrap
The military Needs mets in All Branches.

Some of our younger posters 17 and older can consider that route maybe,..

A free Education and you get to Serve America and tell your Kids and Grandkids great stories to boot.
A win win for everyone
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting myway:


So you read the NHC public statement on the storm. Cooler waters=weakening
Annular hurricanes have a way of persisting through cold waters and high shear which is why there is some doubt over Celia's rapid decline. I think Celia is Annular is has a large eye for her size and no spiral bands at all and she is almost perfectly circular. Even if she doesn't meet all the requirements for an annular storm she can still act like one like Epsilon in 2005
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Quoting StormW:


To the best of my knowledge, it's a separate entity.


Thank You.....They "seem" to be one in the same when you read some of the literature/charts but I think that the ridge is sandwiched between the ITCZ and the TUTT when they "tandem" rise in the Summer above 10N.......
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Enforcer001

If you violate any of the general or specific terms applicable to Wunderground Data Feed, WUI has the right to terminate your use of the Site and the Data Feed and to take appropriate legal actions against you.


Well he already mentioned he had a different name before. Obviously already got banned.
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Quoting BFG308:
How do those vorticity plots get put together? Is there a link somewhere?


Link
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I see a similarity!!!

93L:


Tropical Depression Sixteen (2008):
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4204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Enforcer001

If you violate any of the general or specific terms applicable to Wunderground Data Feed, WUI has the right to terminate your use of the Site and the Data Feed and to take appropriate legal actions against you.
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Quoting Patrap:


Tampa iz always in the Clear..LOL


Since 1921!! Doesn't get much clearer than that!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.