93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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theirs going to be a new burst of convection over the LLC,it looks to be located right over it you can see on the IR loop,this low is getting organized..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting houstongator:
I have a question that you guys may have already addressed. We have assumed that the hurricane will make a mess of things, with regards to the oil, if it comes in west of the spill. It will push all the oil up into the land. But what happens if we can get an Allison (95) type track (east of PCB) out of this thing? Will that get north and west winds blowing the oil back out to sea. Just a question from an amateur.


good question, but i definitely don't know the answer. it seems like it's a no win situation either way. if oil blows out to sea, it gets in loop current, if it's blown on shore, it gets on beaches, marshes, and maybe even our homes |:0
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Quoting Drakoen:


No convergence line. And ask the Windsat what happened to the other half LOL


LMAO. That's funny Drak !. But there is a convergence line, look closely.
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Quoting Joanie38:
Our local met here in Lake Charles said it's impossible for two systems to form that close together..he said it was like 2 magnets repelling each other....said it was impossible....just thought i'd mention this lol...hello everyone....active blog tonight eh? :)
Impossible? No. Unlikely? Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Our local met here in Lake Charles said it's impossible for two systems to form that close together..he said it was like 2 magnets repelling each other....said it was impossible....just thought i'd mention this lol...hello everyone....active blog tonight eh? :)
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2947. hydrus
.
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2946. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Look at the convergence line to the NW of those Westerlies. And where is the other half of the closed low ?


No convergence line. And ask the Windsat what happened to the other half LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
11:00 pm EDT National Hurricane Center Update
**GRAPHICS UPDATE


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2944. 1965
Quoting StormW:
Getting ready to sign off...would you believe the center may reform a little east, south of Jamaica?


Yep. That area has had sustained heavy convection since this afternoon.
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Im not as impressed with 93L as I was earlier, still think it has a good shot but in the short term im not feeling it. I need a real circulation and then we will talk.
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2942. wxhatt
Yes, there seems to be two areas of concern now in the caribbean.
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Quoting Drakoen:


All those westerlies and it's not closed lol?
We'll find out whether it's closed or not when the reconnaissance aircraft goes to investigate tomorrow.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
is there any particular model that has been getting 93Ls "track" right? i know it's hard to really say being that it's not too organized, but is there one model that seems to have a handle on it more than the others? if so, which one?
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Quoting Drakoen:


All those westerlies and it's not closed lol?


Look at the convergence line to the NW of those Westerlies. And where is the other half of the closed low ?
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Quoting Ameister12:

Ava was stronger.

Ava had 915 mbar. Celia has 926 mbar.


Idont talk about MB i talk about speed 140kts. And not my data is NHC discussion report.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh ok. I think I see that. :)


I've been visualizing the jog to the east of the center in my mind's eye since 8pm, but for lack of an edjumakashun, let alone any experience, in these matters have held off prognosticating such a devious move on the part of 93L. Many thanks to StormW for the intellectual cover! :)
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Quoting Drakoen:


There is a good chance it will. Best chance we have seen thus far.
Agreed. Lots of factors in its favor, it just needs to consolidate on a LLC, which should be hard considering that there are multiple vorticies stealing energy from each other.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I wish we had recon data on Celia. Would be interesting to see the actual pressure and winds instead of satellite estimates :/
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Buzz Saw..

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2933. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:
Low pressure there all right just not closed. Nothing new with this system. The NHC have been tracking a low for days off and on


All those westerlies and it's not closed lol?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
2932. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Drakoen, you thinking that 93L will become TD #1?


There is a good chance it will. Best chance we have seen thus far.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
Low pressure there all right just not closed. Nothing new with this system. The NHC have been tracking a low for days off and on
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Quoting Claudette1234:
CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.

CELIA CAT 5 HURRICANE




Ava was stronger.

Ava had 915 mbar. Celia has 926 mbar.
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We keep talking about Dmax and Dmin, but it seems that not much really has happened during Dmax with 92L and 93L... could just be because I wasn't up to see it but idk
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Thanks!
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Drakoen, you thinking that 93L will become TD #1?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:
Windsat reveals a broad area of low pressure associated with 93L.
Exactly. Posted it a few pages back saying the same thing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 7544:
hmmmmm is this 93l over fla

or .......Link


Never saw that prospective before. What run is that from? I couldn't tell where it was coming from. Which I've found is the problem with all longrange CMC/GEM
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
You mean the one that's already getting shunted off towards the North. Nothing to worry about there. That wave will be with Luca Brasi soon.


austintx, looks like we've got our answer. thanks cosmic.
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2921. Drakoen
Windsat reveals a broad area of low pressure associated with 93L.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
2920. 7544
with aall this action dmax should be interesting tonight . we might even see another invest forming at that time prob at 20 north
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Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Sorry if this has been discussed - don't see it on my initial browse. Anyone know if the slight rotation near (what I think is) 50W/20N is anything?
Quoting truecajun:


that's what i'm wondering about too.


LOL I read your post right after I put mine up and wondered if we both were talking about the same thing.. Anyone have insight?
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Quoting truecajun:
hello everyone. i see that 93L is still being fickle.

i have a question. i didn't read back through the blog, so forgive me if this has already been discussed.

is the blob east of the windward islands anything to worry about - development wise?
You mean the one that's already getting shunted off towards the North. Nothing to worry about there. That wave will be with Luca Brasi soon.
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Quoting Claudette1234:
CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.

CELIA CAT 5 HURRICANE





she's a beauty
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Want to save?

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
74w 16n is what i'll be watching tonight and tomorrow. i can see anything with the so called 93l llc but at 74w 16n it looks pretty clear to me. jmo though. i'm sure most will disagree, but i will watch that area. 93 looks like it may make land fall soon. so my eyes will be set on a new location. night all hope we see something soon with this big mess in the caribbean
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
not much help.... well on second look it does show some westerlies



If you look at that closely all you will see is a convergence line just off the coast of NE Honduras. No closed low.
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Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Sorry if this has been discussed - don't see it on my initial browse. Anyone know if the slight rotation near (what I think is) 50W/20N is anything?


that's what i'm wondering about too.
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Quoting weathersp:
Added a trend line...

Those ups and downs are because of diurnal variations but the overall trend indicates much lower pressures in the vicinity of that buoy, a sign of worsening weather.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.

CELIA CAT 5 HURRICANE



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a question that you guys may have already addressed. We have assumed that the hurricane will make a mess of things, with regards to the oil, if it comes in west of the spill. It will push all the oil up into the land. But what happens if we can get an Allison (95) type track (east of PCB) out of this thing? Will that get north and west winds blowing the oil back out to sea. Just a question from an amateur.
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Quoting 7544:
hmmmmm is this 93l over fla

or .......Link


That's interesting
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Sorry if this has been discussed - don't see it on my initial browse. Anyone know if the slight rotation near (what I think is) 50W/20N is anything?
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Anyone know what 93L is going to have to do before it develops?
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me tinks 93L is very much trying to become vertically stacked and has stalled to a crawl;)...93L=looking more organized den eva!!...and if it can stay off shore and/or drift northerly w/stand a good chance of a TD forming in the next 12hrs IMO
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
hello everyone. i see that 93L is still being fickle.

i have a question. i didn't read back through the blog, so forgive me if this has already been discussed.

is the blob east of the windward islands anything to worry about - development wise?
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Quoting kmanislander:


This time of year I only come on infrequently. The wait for something definitive to happen will drive you crazy
Lol, I'm sure it will.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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