93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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2153. MrstormX
11:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2010
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
NNNN

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
2152. ATL
11:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2010
Quoting Seflhurricane:
here is a good one lets see how many people will post the TWO thats another things that drives some of us insane

I'll say 5...closer to 10 if it's code red or back to code yellow
2151. Seflhurricane
11:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
this dont kill the nhc stie or you may have too pay for it lol
what about this site , i am surprised i has survived these past years
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I bet there are at least 100 people from this blog clicking the F5 button on the NHC site.
here is a good one lets see how many people will post the TWO thats another things that drives some of us insane
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
this dont kill the nhc stie or you may have too pay for it lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting alaina1085:

Well thats true. But you know the NHC lol. We will see.
Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2146. K8eCane
Question: Is there POSITIVELY a LOW LEVEL center on this thing yet that is currently capable of strengthening without hitting land in the near future?
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2145. uplater
Quoting RecordSeason:
Aren't we still like 11 hours from DMAX?


Getting cold early:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I bet there are at least 100 people from this blog clicking the F5 button on the NHC site.
YEAP
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting Seflhurricane:
you have no idea how these people are they are so conservative they drive some of us nuts


Im conservative in general in real life, but on here I would prefer if the nhc were liberal.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Remember…This is an entertainment blog. If a storm is approaching your area, please rely on your local Emergency Managers.
lots of valuable info is heard hear but yes always listen to local officials and the NHC
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting Seflhurricane:
you have no idea how these people are they are so conservative they drive some of us nuts
I bet there are at least 100 people from this blog clicking the F5 button on the NHC site.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2140. Fluid
Has anyone thought of meta-modeling the group's thinking...?

All you need to do is to slap together a program which can receive input (about the supposed location of a low, vorticity, direction, probability, etc) from each member of the group. The program would then assemble the varying views together, tossing outliers, and cough up a prognostication.

Then, as the reality unfolds, the program could compare the prognostication's components with the unfolding reality, and weight the input of various contributors to attempt to sharpen future prognostications.

It would be interesting to see what your group mind would come up with.
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2139. xcool
HWRF NOW BACK TO NOLA


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Doubt it. A lot of things that were not there at 2PM are now here at 8PM.

Well thats true. But you know the NHC lol. We will see.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Appears to me looking at a 30 image loop a stronger center is forming under the deeper convection. Also appears the system is moving more to the SW like the GFS and NOGAPS showed on the 18Z model run, only to resume a more NW movement later.
Agreed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Tazmanian:
better not stay the same or i rum the next two overe with a train


Lol. That may be the most honest answer of the night. And I'd bet you speak for a couple other people too.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
better have my train staneing be so it can run overe the next two if it stayed the same
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Just look at sat. It's wobbling around in the same place.


Looks like its dwindling to nothing or perhaps being absorbed by the new convection to the NE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember…This is an entertainment blog. If a storm is approaching your area, please rely on your local Emergency Managers.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11454
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Doubt it. A lot of things that were not there at 2PM are now here at 8PM.
you have no idea how these people are they are so conservative they drive some of us nuts
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting TampaSpin:




Wind Shear is definately lower than normal...according to the map.
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2130. xcool
WHXX04 KWBC 242321

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L



INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 24



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 16.2 81.5 280./ 9.9

6 15.9 82.2 250./ 7.1

12 15.8 82.8 257./ 6.1

18 16.1 83.6 294./ 8.2

24 16.5 83.9 311./ 4.8

30 17.1 84.4 324./ 8.1

36 18.0 85.1 322./11.2

42 19.0 85.8 327./11.6

48 19.9 86.8 311./12.6

54 20.3 88.1 287./12.8

60 21.8 88.7 339./16.5

66 23.1 89.4 330./14.2

72 24.0 89.8 335./ 9.7

78 24.4 90.4 309./ 6.9

84 25.5 90.4 357./10.9

90 26.8 89.6 33./15.5



STORM DISSIPATED AT 90 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Appears to me looking at a 30 image loop a stronger center is forming under the deeper convection. Also appears the system is moving more to the SW like the GFS and NOGAPS showed on the 18Z model run, only to resume a more NW movement later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUN 2010 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 12:51:07 N Lon : 115:01:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 920.0mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting MrstormX:


Nina for sure


YEPPER!!

Quoting alaina1085:

Thats not good.


NOPE it is not!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't be surprised gang if the NHC keeps it at 40% with the words 'has become slightly better organized'. Personally, I'd hold it at 50%.


Gotta go to 50% in 48hrs i would have to put it myself.....think they will too....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I THINK THE COC OF 93l IS NOW MOVED OR MOVING EAST TOWARD THE BLOW UP GOING NEAR 16N 79.5W
I DO EXPECT THE PLOTS AND MODEL PLOTS TO CHANGE AS WELL
I THINK THAT THE CENTER HAS LOWER PRESSURES THAN 1006MB
Just look at sat. It's wobbling around in the same place.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3633
Quoting alaina1085:
The two will prob stay the same. They want to see consistency.
Doubt it. A lot of things that were not there at 2PM are now here at 8PM.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2124. xcool
93L Convection firing up
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2123. Gorty
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't be surprised gang if the NHC keeps it at 40% with the words 'has become slightly better organized'. Personally, I'd hold it at 50%.


Slightly better organized yes, but, look how close it is to Central America, it can't possible develop in time unless it changes direction. I will keep my predition of development into a TD at 10% for now; I will till see what the NHC has to say at 8 PM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I THINK THE COC OF 93l IS NOW MOVED OR MOVING EAST TOWARD THE BLOW UP GOING NEAR 16N 79.5W
I DO EXPECT THE PLOTS AND MODEL PLOTS TO CHANGE AS WELL
I THINK THAT THE CENTER HAS LOWER PRESSURES THAN 1006MB
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't be surprised gang if the NHC keeps it at 40% with the words 'has become slightly better organized'. Personally, I'd hold it at 50%.
very true they have a tendency of doing that
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
The two will prob stay the same. They want to see consistency.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting MrstormX:
Okay what is the general direction of this system anyways...


Right now looks almost due west to me.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting TampaSpin:
Whoa. Lots of rain for Fl :)
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3633
better not stay the same or i rum the next two overe with a train
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Don't be surprised gang if the NHC keeps it at 40% with the words 'has become slightly better organized'. Personally, I'd hold it at 50%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
Quoting Tazmanian:
i hop the next two finds tune things here a little
Not if it stays the same...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hunkerdown:
Interaction is not spewing illiterate garbage.


Nothing I've seen coming from 'the kids' qualifies as illiterate. Now some of the adults, that's another story, lol.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Thats not good.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
8PM two should be out in 30 MIN
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting TampaSpin:




Nina for sure
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
i hop the next two finds tune things here a little
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Last couple frames you can see the low level clouds start to get pulled into the T-Storm complex to the east of the Nakkie LLC.

RGB
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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