93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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1603. bwt1982
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
No one says S. FLA is in the clear. No one along the GOMEX coast is cleared at this time. Even if S FLA does not get hit by a tropical system... there is still the oil out there to contend with, which could affect S FLA in many adverse ways.


Your right, just an opinion that it will be a slow season for S. Fla. I know overall it will be an active season. And I was speaking about the tropics, I know the oil spill is a mess. As far as 93L I think its pretty safe to say that SFla is in the clear.... LOL
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To the right of what???
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1601. JamesSA
Quoting Jeff9641:
If this is the new COC then watchout guys. Water temps there are 84 to 86 degrees.

It would also shift the track to the right. Hmmm.
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3 broad convection areas will allow 93L to choose its own destiny.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


This is try it is forming NE of the current low right now it almost seems to be elongating itself NE for the new COC position just SW of Jamaica. The tropical statement was right on. The new low seems to be forming in that convection complex NE of the curren low. Good Job NHC.


That is what i see too.....I thought it started forming about noon today!
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1597. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)














Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues

Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1596. JamesSA
My suggestion to cut down the noise level is to use the +- scoring system already in place, and make people with a sufficiently negative score go through a captcha each time they post. You could even make it so the captchas became progressively more difficult the more negative the score. And... only let people with a positive score rate posts with the +- buttons so trolls can't abuse the feature.

I think that would encourage politeness and cut down on the noise.
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There is so much energy/ concentrated moisture in the Caribbean (including 93L)that it's hard to imagine that nothing will come out of this. Quite amazing really....Link
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Quoting btwntx08:
lets get back on tropics plz all this stuff is off topic so if u dont stop the admin may take action so adivse u to stop this and lets get back on weather/tropics plz thank you


You're absolutely right. I hope extreme knows I was just going for a laugh. I know that's not Professor Thomas because I haven't been sent to the naughty chair in the writing lab. :) As far as topic of tropics. Glad to hear something may be coming together. Haven't looked at sat all day. Brb.
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Quoting ssmate:
That image is one Hot Mess.
It's the best it has looked so far...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1591. AMKFLA
A professional meteorologist posted this in another forum (storm 2k). Though it might give some insight.

"I agree...this is on its way now. The broad low has stoped moving west and is now getting pulled back to the east towards the convection. You can also see the low level cu field along the 15 latitude from 80-82W beginning to veer as the pressures are lowering. Something is going to try and get going near 16/80...whether its a new low or the weak low getting sucked under...I feel pretty confident now...thinking 80-85% chance."
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.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
i'm for freedom of speech personally. if i don't like something someone is posting i just ignore them. if i decide to get involved in bickering, well that's my decision. i personally have never seen anything on this site worth banning. no physical threats, or lewd comments. all i have seen is difference of opinion. not saying that threats have never happened. just saying i have never seen it. we are all guilty of taking difference of opinion as personal attacks from time to time. but it may be better to take a deep breathe and consider weather a difference in opinion is worth banning. i enjoy all of you on here and i love to read the different opinions everyone has. remember when it comes to mother nature even the experts are just guessing. if any of us don't like an opinion that is given on here we can simply not read it, or ignore it. i hope everyone has a wonderful day. i am going swimming in my pool that is like a hot tub right now. i really wish the water was cooler. oh, and one more thing- bp and govt. i was planning to take my kids to orange beach next week. they have never been and that's about as far as i can afford to go. so thanks for ruining our plans. jerks! i think i will send an angry e-mail to all of them. bp,and the govt. have a good one people
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
I have no weather knowledge just simple observations. I check the blog because I enjoy following the hurricane season and it could directly impact me, as it has in the past. Honestly, I get pretty nervous when there is a potential for a TD/Storm/Hurricane to get in the Gulf, especially with the oil gusher situation. I apologise if I come across as too "off topic" or non-serious but the levity helps me to deal and calms me. Besides, laughter is good for you. I do seriously appreciate the infomation I get here from those in the know. Thank you.
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1585. ssmate
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Lets try to get back on topic.

That image is one Hot Mess.
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No one says S. FLA is in the clear. No one along the GOMEX coast is cleared at this time. Even if S FLA does not get hit by a tropical system... there is still the oil out there to contend with, which could affect S FLA in many adverse ways.
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Wow - tempers are flaring! We need at least one storm to form to get it out of our systems I think, lol. I'm not going to offer my opinion because honestly I know next to nothing when it comes to interpreting most of this weather data, but that's why I rely on you guys. :) Living on the Gulf coast all of my life I do know that this "area" is in its very early stages and even the experts are guessing what its next move will be.

I think we're all here for the same reason, our interest in tropical weather, and I know that every blog will have its share of trolls, but let's just ignore the obvious ones and respect Dr. Masters enough to not clog up his site going back and forth with them.

JMHO, and I hope no one has to deal with the double whammy of a storm mixed with the oil spill.

Best wishes,

Someone who can remember the fun times had during Danny, Juan, Bonnie, Andrew, Lili, Claudette, Rita, and Ike :)
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Quoting reedzone:
It looks more clearer to me that a surface low is trying to form WSW of Jamaica, 81W and 16N (around there), right next to the convection. Notice how the convection to the east is now banding, circulating around this area of interest.


Saw that feature as well, again very Cindy like...
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I was actually wrong about the Sheer...Sheer is affecting 93L more than i thought.....

LOOP it and speed it up very fast....clouds are blowing right off the top!
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Quoting reedzone:
It looks more clearer to me that a surface low is trying to form WSW of Jamaica, 81W and 16N (around there), right next to the convection. Notice how the convection to the east is now banding, circulating around this area of interest.


That would be very beneficial to the system, but I don't think that's what it's doing.
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It looks more clearer to me that a surface low is trying to form WSW of Jamaica, 81W and 16N (around there), right next to the convection. Notice how the convection to the east is now banding, circulating around this area of interest.
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CMC/GEM has proven itself over the past couple weeks to be pretty accurate on track but very inaccurate on intensity.
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ok connie, this is very much street talk here and not profesional talk here because I am a completely unlearned idiot, but I am trying to pay attention and figure it out myself. From what I can understand the only thing really stoping this from The only problem is the spin is not aggresive enough at the right height. Sorry havent got the whole height things figured out yet. I hope my street language can help. Or at least make you feel less ignored. And for everyone else out there if I am totally wrong here please help me learn not rip me to shreds thanks
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1576. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Wow, well said...
Yes..No Poof for 53rdWeatherRECON: :)
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Quoting Drakoen:
I'm starting to really think this blog does need some type of payment to be in here


I don't think it needs to be a paid blog. I just think people need to follow some simple rules, or face getting permantly banned! I learn a lot on this blog, and it should be a fun learning environment... free of political, social, or other views not pertaining to severe weather (tropics, tornadoes, fires, etc.)! JMO
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1574. bwt1982
Checking in after a long day at work.... Looks like 93L is still looking disorganized... Just glad to see S Fla in the clear which is a good thing! Cheers to another slow season here in South Florida!!!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Lets try to get back on topic.

Thank you.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hydrus:
I say that SkyePony nailed it days ago and the system S.E. of Jamaica steals the show. If this materializes, those forecast tracks the computers are putting out will change drastically.jmo


or the CMC nailed it and we get 2 systems
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1569. Patrap
Man..itsa Big Circulation fo sho..



93L Floater - Visible Loop

Check the last 2 frames to lose the Bad ones.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Lets try to get back on topic.

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1566. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
He was referring to me because he was telling me something that someone already told me, LOL, I know it's dumb, but what can you do?
Quoting Drakoen:


Exactly
I say that SkyePony nailed it days ago and the system S.E. of Jamaica steals the show. If this materializes, those forecast tracks the computers are putting out will change drastically.jmo
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Just an idea. Why not simply use the "Ignore" and "Report" features that are already present on the blog?
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You have to remember she is pregnant. Her hormones are outrageously high anything could set her off. Try to have some empathy.
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GOM wasn't a boiling pot for Cindy like it is now. If 93L takes a track similar to Cindy, I wonder how it will blow up in the GOM.
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1560. Drakoen
Quoting CosmicEvents:

During hurricane season, maybe just make people put up a credit card as proof of identity. For younger people with no CCC then use their parent's card along with a faxed note.
.
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That should keep things in check. If not, then add on a 10 cent charge per post, with all proceeds to go to Portlight.


I wouldn't mind that at this point.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:
I just want to let you all know it has been an absolute delight to see you all forming such a close knit community here at on Dr. Masters blog on wunderground. I'm not being sarcastic either, all of the 'weathered' bloggers have been extremely patient and informative with the flood of newbs since the doc opened his blog for comments years ago. 

This really cant be understated as the demographic on this site is extremely far reaching. Young to old, northerners and gulf coasters, Americans and islanders,  Europeans, New Zealanders and Australians. And lots of others I've failed to mention. 

Even though there are frustrations and miss communications and misunderstandings with the hundreds of varying opinions, your really a pretty civil bunch:) I know I thoroughly enjoy visiting to read the latest goings on directly from those 'in the know'. 

On the situation in the Caribbean. We all acknowledge there is tremendous energy and potential in the tropics right now. Wether or not this materializes, and how, is EXACTLY what we are ALL here for. 

The tools being used are the best we've ever had. You guys are putting up excellent charts, diagrams, sat views. Keep watching, keep learning, above all though be patient and kind. Because really, if or when, 'something' does happen. It usually gets pretty somber around here, as we all know the specific ramifications of the eventual outcome of cyclone genesis. 


Wow, well said...
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Quoting Patrap:


Hurricane Cindy on July 5, 2005, at 1745 UTC
Formed July 3, 2005
Dissipated July 7, 2005
Highest
winds
75 mph (120 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 991 mbar (hPa; 29.26 inHg)
Fatalities 1 direct, 4 indirect
Damage $320 million (2005 USD)
$355.2 million (2010 USD)
Areas
affected Yucatán Peninsula, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana







As you pointed out historically speaking the track and overall guidance is very reminiscent to Cindy, even the convection looks exactly the way 96L did when it became Cindy. The difference is definitely climatological features, I doubt the intensity will be to scale with Cindy especially if the oil actually hurts cyclogenesis as some have predicted.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:
I'm starting to really think this blog does need some type of payment to be in here

During hurricane season, maybe just make people put up a credit card as proof of identity. For younger people with no CCC then use their parent's card along with a faxed note.
.
.
That should keep things in check. If not, then add on a 10 cent charge per post, with all proceeds to go to Portlight.
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I still think a new LLC will emerge to the North of the current spin.....JMO
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Thank you all!! :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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