93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Floodman:


I think a better question is:
Which model is best at predicting cyclogenesis, track and intensity on a system that isn't vertically stacked, isn't generating much by way of convection and seems to have a very minor and disorganized surface circulation...anyone?
If it were all of those things why was a TCFA issued?
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Quoting watchingnva:


that wasn't the point of the question, and you know it baltimore...lol...apparently they see something we don't to issue the tcfa...


13 year olds dude, 13 year olds
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now which model is better? ding, ding, ding the ECMWF.


I think a better question is:
Which model is best at predicting cyclogenesis, track and intensity on a system that isn't vertically stacked, isn't generating much by way of convection and seems to have a very minor and disorganized surface circulation...anyone?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Thing is, the GFS cant even figure out theres a frickin Cane in the Pacific
Lol, it's failed to recognize 93L too.
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1197. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
337 PM EDT Thursday Jun 24 2010

Sat-sun...the weather for the weekend lies in a tangled combination
of the tropical wave currently near Jamaica and the dlm ridge across
the southeast and North Florida.


The GFS continues to show the Atlantic surface ridge axis shifting south
over central Florida...allowing the low level flow to veer to the south
and tap into the abundant tropical moisture associated with the
wave. The deeper moisture would allow for greater rain chances with
scattered showers/storms developing along the inland moving East
Coast sea breeze and with any boundary interactions over the
interior each afternoon. The European model (ecmwf) is considerably drier as it keeps
the surface ridge further north through the weekend...with continuing
easterly flow that taps into the drier airmass over the western
Atlantic. Decided not to go completely with the very wet GFS and
NAM solutions...but instead used a compromise of both with a
gradient of 50 percent probability of precipitation over the southern three counties that
have the best chance of moisture return to 30 percent over the
Volusia County coast and the northern Orlando metropolitan.


Similar to the Tampa discussion a compromise of both solutions it can go either way...

Ike what do you have in your area?



Written this morning....

LONG TERM... (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO FLIP AND FLOP RUN TO RUN WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN. I
WON`T GO INTO THE DETAILS OF EACH MODEL...BUT SEEING THE EURO
CHANGE FROM A 950 MB CYCLONE IN THE GULF ON THE 23/00Z RUN TO A
MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM ON THE 23/12Z RUN AND NOW TO AN EXTREME
SOUTHERN SOLUTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE 24/00Z
RUN...I HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL PREDICTIONS
REGARDING THE LONG RANGE PREDICTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE
GFS HAS NEVER REALLY INDICATED ANY SIGNIFICANT GENESIS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS (EXCEPT THE EURO) SEEM TO
CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THOUGH IN THE EVENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EACH DAY FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY RETURN TO CLIMO
VALUES...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

THE 24/00Z GFS WANTS TO SET UP AN ANOMALOUSLY LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOP A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF THAT WILL PUSH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DEEP INTO FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE`LL WANT TO WATCH
CLOSELY SINCE A FEW MODELS RUNS IN A ROW HAVE HAD THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...BEING LATE JUNE...CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY ARGUES AGAINST A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LET ALONE MOVING
DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...THUS WILL WEIGHT THE FAR EXTENDED OF THE
FORECAST CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 24/00Z
EURO SHOWS A MUCH MORE REASONABLE AND MORE DAMPENED SOLUTION...WHICH
SEEMS MORE REALISTIC WITH A STALLING BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE GEORGIA
BY THURSDAY.
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1196. AMKFLA
Convection also popping to the west of the low (and as we approach DMIN, no less.) Some of this is associated with land, but some is definitely due to the low's circulation.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No, I'm not thinking it's going to pull a sharp hook either. I'm just saying that no one can tell where it's going so people need to stop saying certain locations are safe/unsafe.




charley was mid august,its not impossible!!!,not likely,but it could happen...
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Quoting IKE:


Actually the GFS was tops in 2009 on the 1-3 day forecast tracks according to the NHC.
That was in 1-3 days, I'm thinking more towards 4-5 days.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Trough aint gonna be that strong, and even if this weak 93L develops gonna be weak too. Should be what Florida wants! no oil worse on the beaches and gives some quenching rains and wind to TX/LA


You're wrong, a hurricane going South of the Oil spill into the TX/LA border area would be terrible for Florida, the circulation around the storm would push all the oil North and East right into Florida. I'd rather a Cat 1 hurricane hit the Panhandle of Florida and then the circulation would push the oil North and West away from the Florida coast. Regardless of where this storm goes in the GOM it's going to make beaches somewhere an oily mess. I don't see any good scenario here other than no development but like that's going to happen over the next 3-4 months!
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey i hear you. The Euro is on your side but the GFS shows a stronger trough and we need to all monitor this as the models battle this out.


Thing is, the GFS cant even figure out theres a frickin Cane in the Pacific
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yup i was this about too say some in

Quoting TampaSpin:
The Blob behind 93L might be the real storm coming......Skyepony has been saying that for a few days also.....JUST SAYIN



this little thing may be are new 93L and i said MAY BE this thing has a good spin too it this zoon in

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Anyone see the similarities between Cindy and 93L track wise.


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well back to square 1 twc just RIP 93L so what now
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1187. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now which model is better? ding, ding, ding the ECMWF.


Actually the GFS was tops in 2009 on the 1-3 day forecast tracks according to the NHC.
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1186. DocBen
Out in the Atlantic a bit ... east of the Antilles ... another blob? Might it be 94?
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Quoting apocalyps:
Luckely the soccer team is in africa.
At least they will be spared to repopulate the US.


LOL! Looking forward to your apocalyptic views as the season develops.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
337 PM EDT Thursday Jun 24 2010

Sat-sun...the weather for the weekend lies in a tangled combination
of the tropical wave currently near Jamaica and the dlm ridge across
the southeast and North Florida.


The GFS continues to show the Atlantic surface ridge axis shifting south
over central Florida...allowing the low level flow to veer to the south
and tap into the abundant tropical moisture associated with the
wave. The deeper moisture would allow for greater rain chances with
scattered showers/storms developing along the inland moving East
Coast sea breeze and with any boundary interactions over the
interior each afternoon. The European model (ecmwf) is considerably drier as it keeps
the surface ridge further north through the weekend...with continuing
easterly flow that taps into the drier airmass over the western
Atlantic. Decided not to go completely with the very wet GFS and
NAM solutions...but instead used a compromise of both with a
gradient of 50 percent probability of precipitation over the southern three counties that
have the best chance of moisture return to 30 percent over the
Volusia County coast and the northern Orlando metropolitan.


Similar to the Tampa discussion a compromise of both solutions it can go either way...

Ike what do you have in your area?
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Quoting sarahjola:
twc just down played 93l. they said nothing going on in the tropics. that the wave in caribbean is not going to develop any time soon. they said thankfully we have nothing to be concerned about in the tropics right now. is that the opinion of everyone on here?


My advice is to stop watching them, you are never going to hear what you want.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Wait a second... I have lived on the Central Florida penisula for over 20 years and have seen quite a few tropical cyclones impact the peninsula in June... so one can not simply rule out the FL Peninsula... everyone along the GOMEX coast should be on the lookout.


You are absolutely right.
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1180. IKE
JAX,FL. long-term....

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS STILL IN GUD AGREEMENT ABOUT MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF AND
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR PCPN CHANCES PUSHING UPWARDS INTO THE 50-60% RANGE EACH DAY.
HIGHER PCPN CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON SOME KIND OF LOW
DEVELOPMENT THAT TRIES TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE WHETHER
THERE IS ANY LOCAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OR NOT...A MUCH WETTER PERIOD
WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE DOES TRY TO PUSH AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
what is a tcfa?


Tropical Cyclone Formation Advisory
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The Blob behind 93L might be the real storm coming......Skyepony has been saying that for a few days also.....JUST SAYIN
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey i hear you. The Euro is on your side but the GFS shows a stronger trough and we need to all monitor this as the models battle this out.
Now which model is better? ding, ding, ding the ECMWF.
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1176. Walshy
Quoting CaneWarning:


Uhhhh, 2 PM came and went.



No time zone was stated...
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twc just down played 93l. they said nothing going on in the tropics. that the wave in caribbean is not going to develop any time soon. they said thankfully we have nothing to be concerned about in the tropics right now. is that the opinion of everyone on here?
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No, I'm not thinking it's going to pull a sharp hook either. I'm just saying that no one can tell where it's going so people need to stop saying certain locations are safe/unsafe.


I disagree. I can almost rule out a strike on Antartica. If you are in Antartica, I will go ahead and say it - you are safe.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
(Sarcastic) wow what a way to take out your anger on a tropical system........


Yeah. Believe me taking your anger out on a tropical system is pointless. They do not care.
Not that I've ever done that or anything. Well not before they came to visit. Lol.
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Wait a second... I have lived on the Central Florida penisula for over 20 years and have seen quite a few tropical cyclones impact the peninsula in June... so one can not simply rule out the FL Peninsula... everyone along the GOMEX coast should be on the lookout.
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what is a tcfa?
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
Quoting RitaEvac:
Florida folks on blog can breathe easy, this has TX/LA written all over it.


Actually we are very concerned about the surf and how it affects the oil in GOM.

Not to mention, we know nothing is set in stone. Tropical systems tend to go where ever they end up. :-)

way to early to not be paying attention
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No, I'm not thinking it's going to pull a sharp hook either. I'm just saying that no one can tell where it's going so people need to stop saying certain locations are safe/unsafe.


Yeah your correct i would say anyone from Mexico to the Florida Panhandle needs to keep a close eye but i got tired of people saying it was going to do a 180 and hit South Florida lol
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here is my quadroon:

and on the 25th of the month before the dog star is in the sky
terror shall reign with the number 93
and the letter k
it shall destroy a land that starts with the letter d

now, when it comes true people will say how right i am, only the numbers and letters were a little off. and when my boss catches me writing this she will read this "i will be caught typing by my boss" and be astonished. oh haha i just realized itsquatrain not quadroon HAHAHA
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
(Sarcastic) wow what a way to take out your anger on a tropical system........


Doesn't sound like helovetotrac at all, huh?
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Look i know your from Florida and you can bash me all you want but this is not October this storm is not going to make Wilma track....Maybe the Florida Panhandle is at a heightened risk but the Pennisula is pushing it big time

And it's not quite July, so early season troughs are not unusual either.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
PRESSURES ARE DROPING AGAIN NOW DOWN TO 1008.2MB AND DROPING WIND OUT OF THE E-ENE AT 15-20MPH

Pressure over here is 1007 and winds calm
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Look i know your from Florida and you can bash me all you want but this is not October this storm is not going to make Wilma track....Maybe the Florida Panhandle is at a heightened risk but the Pennisula is pushing it big time
No, I'm not thinking it's going to pull a sharp hook either. I'm just saying that no one can tell where it's going so people need to stop saying certain locations are safe/unsafe.
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PRESSURES ARE DROPING AGAIN NOW DOWN TO 1008.2MB AND DROPING WIND OUT OF THE E-ENE AT 15-20MPH
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
The thuderstorms are away from the center,is that organized to you??


that wasn't the point of the question, and you know it baltimore...lol...apparently they see something we don't to issue the tcfa...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1525
maybe it should go back to cape verd and start over again LOL which would be ese
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Quoting twhcracker:
it will be upgraded to red > 50% chance of development by 2 pm today
it's 4
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So I hear a TCFA has been issued in association with 93L...
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
My point is is that even after we get a system and the NHC puts out a track, that's not necessarily what is going to happen.

So people saying now that Fl is out of the risk area, or texas is out of the risk area is ridiculous.


Look i know your from Florida and you can bash me all you want but this is not October this storm is not going to make Wilma track....Maybe the Florida Panhandle is at a heightened risk but the Pennisula is pushing it big time
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Quoting twhcracker:
it will be upgraded to red > 50% chance of development by 2 pm today


Uhhhh, 2 PM came and went.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.