Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Makoto1:


You have a point... I do think they're handing the invest tag out more, however. Overall, that's good, because there's more model runs on systems that may develop.


Yeah, I sure don't have a problem with extra model runs! haha
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CIMSS 18h00 UTC

Windshear
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Quoting AlexEmmett:
TAZ this isnt the one we know though its a imporsonater rememeber what happened the keeper last year




hmmmmmmmm
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What?? Lol.

lol well it is but his Handle is

ThePlywoodState
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700mb and 500mb vorticity show that this disturbance is already closer to vertically-stacked than pre-Alex was at this point, and thus this system we have now will not have nearly as much struggle trying to get together if it tries to develop. Typhoon-like developments are all gradual, but this one could be faster than Alex was.

700mb vorticity:



500mb vorticity:

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



now now keep i would re move that
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Thanks Cybr looks to be drifting north what did the models say.
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TAZ this isnt the one we know though its a imporsonater rememeber what happened the keeper last year
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Quoting Levi32:
850mb vorticity has been increasing all day SSW of Jamaica, under the heaviest thunderstorms.




yup
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Quoting Levi32:
850mb vorticity has been increasing all day SSW of Jamaica, under the heaviest thunderstorms.

Indeed.
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Quoting aquak9:
Hmmmm...DirtLeg, you and Alex, for being "newbies", sure seem awful familiar.


Of course I could post a Disturbed youtube but I'd get banned for sure.

carry on...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i have new Plywood state from the day i have started posting here


I have read plywoods blogs, that is clearly not this JFV joker that keep recreating names

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Quoting AlexEmmett:
Miami its
ThePlywoodState
What?? Lol.
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Miami its
ThePlywoodState
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i have new Plywood state from the day i have started posting here
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850mb vorticity has been increasing all day SSW of Jamaica, under the heaviest thunderstorms.

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Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
Hurricanes>>well I just assumed since I received a quite angry email in horrible spanish after I mentioned his real name. :)

yah its not the PLywood state ur thinking of he doesnt even have a picture
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Quoting aquak9:


no...I'd just MOVE if I were you.
Where to? Mars! Between hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, brush fires, blizzards, droughts, dust storms, etc, there doesn't seem anywhere to go? Oh, might as well throw in oil as well!
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Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
Hurricanes>>well I just assumed since I received a quite angry email in horrible spanish after I mentioned his real name. :)
What is his exact name?
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I dont even see plywoodstatenative on here
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Good evening all, the cloud mass below Cuba looks to be coming together.Have you all been discussing this.




are you JFV?
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Quoting ElConando:


That ain't JFV.

than who is he becuase he pissing me off worse then jFV does and thats saying somthing
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Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
Plywood state is JFV...again


Plywood state has been here a while. Not JFV.
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Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
Plywood state is JFV...again


That ain't JFV.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3777
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I don't think anyone can really tell because this is the first year that they've rounded the percentages to the nearest 10%. They gave a couple invests out to yellows before I think but I have no idea if it was a 10% a 20% a 0% or what. All years before this just grouped them by Low, Medium, and High.


You have a point... I do think they're handing the invest tag out more, however. Overall, that's good, because there's more model runs on systems that may develop.
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Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
Plywood state is JFV...again

Crap he hate me no wonder the blog hate you JFV,ThePlywoodState, Weatherstudent just go away we dont want u
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Good evening all, the cloud mass below Cuba looks to be coming together.Have you all been discussing this.


Yes. The models are developing it, including the ECMWF our most reliable model that picked up on Alex and has been developing it for awhile now.
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Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
Plywood state is JFV...again


nope try again
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Isn't it farther SW also?


Looking at my images in post 423, I'd say it's no farther south in terms of cloud extent than Invest 93L was at this point.
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Quoting Makoto1:


What I'm wondering is whether the percentages are more conservative or the invest are tagged more often. I'm guessing the latter but has anyone around longer noticed which?


I don't think anyone can really tell because this is the first year that they've rounded the percentages to the nearest 10%. They gave a couple invests out to yellows before I think but I have no idea if it was a 10% a 20% a 0% or what. All years before this just grouped them by Low, Medium, and High.
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Good evening all, the cloud mass below Cuba looks to be coming together.Have you all been discussing this.
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Quoting StormW:


Well, the pattern hasn't changed in almost 2 1/2 months...what makes you think they'll change drastically in the next 2?


Are you implying that the steering pattern will generally in the Caribbean, shift from central American to Western or Central GOM hits?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3777
on the second pic--sorry got keyboard happy
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Another thought....upper-level conditions were worse for pre-Alex at this point than they are right now in the western Caribbean. There is a very nice upper ridge developing there right now.

Invest 93L 0z June 25th upper winds:



Current upper winds:

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Quoting aquak9:
Hmmmm...DirtLeg, you and Alex, for being "newbies", sure seem awful familiar.


Of course I could post a Disturbed youtube but I'd get banned for sure.

carry on...

well about that .... jk
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462. JLPR2
Northern half of this TW looks like a pacman XD


Hello everyone! :)
Today marks the 3rd year I have been a member of WU, hooray! :3
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Uh Oh, sounds like a weather conspiracy to me! My generator was stolen last December and I was hoping to go at least one season without it. Does this mean that I might need to replace it? (Galveston area)


no...I'd just MOVE if I were you.
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Look at Levis two pics-- there is a "?" over Honduras area----- really weird
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ThePlywoodState who the hell is this, admin ban this guy who is he he talking crap about my mom
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Hmmmm...DirtLeg, you and Alex, for being "newbies", sure seem awful familiar.


Of course I could post a Disturbed youtube but I'd get banned for sure.

carry on...
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AOI/XX/XL
MARK
16.7N/80.1W
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Quoting Levi32:


Driving me nuts how it's doing that all over again.....this disturbance wasn't even created by a pre-existing feature. The tropical wave coming into it now isn't the source and is only adding to it. It's just like typhoon development again.
Uh Oh, sounds like a weather conspiracy to me! My generator was stolen last December and I was hoping to go at least one season without it. Does this mean that I might need to replace it? (Galveston area)
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


And you know how the NHC has been this year, if it makes it to 10% it'll be declared an invest, they've done it with every 10% or higher this year so far.


What I'm wondering is whether the percentages are more conservative or the invest are tagged more often. I'm guessing the latter but has anyone around longer noticed which?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.