Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.
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I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.
Jeff Masters
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15 km resolution Canadian GEM. 95L lives, but barely. Vort max develops off the NE FLA coast. Domain too small for the Carrib.
Starting to think that the WPAC might see one of its, if not the most inactive season(s) on record.
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Yeah your right, it was 93L. The everlasting invest. Thank You for the clarification.
expect alot more this rainy season...i think i told you guys above average rains earlier this year.
Is interesting that some of the analogs for 2010 are among the most rainy years.
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This is a good link, btw, especially for ensembles.
Nope. Its not a strange weather pattern either. Why would you think there would be a connection?
...And as it does, our attention turns to likely pre-96L.
Google "linux windows dual boot how to" for setting up on a single machine. If I can do it so can you.
Large earthquakes (and I believe they have to be at least an order of magnitude larger than the Haitian earthquake) can cause changes to the earth in a number of ways, but they are very small changes that are not noticeable to humans directly, and any effect they have is fairly short-lived as other long-term processes that act on and in the earth eventually erase those small changes.
The tilt of the earth's axis changes naturally at speeds on the order of tens of thousands of years, and the earth's axis also rotates as the earth rotates (precession), again at a rate of several tens of thousands of years to complete one complete rotation.
yes it was, but there is no evidence to suggest that the precession of the earth (the tilt of its orbital axis) is affected by earthquakes. They are not an external force, and only a force external to the planet could alter its tilt. Now, the tilt itself wobbles on a long time frame (70K years, I think) but its not a consequence of earthquakes.
Hasn't it already been proven that this is JFV trying to pose as Drakoen? See if I ever respond to one of your posts again.
Please do not quote him.
I was about to say re. a potential system off S. Carolina that if it is supposed to form from this stagnant frontal system, there sure is enough energy / instability there....
I guess if you think of it this way: the circumference of the earth is about 131 million feet. 3 inches is about therefore about 1/600 millionth of the circumference. The change in solar radiation any single point on earth would therefore change by a maximum of one 600 millionth, or 1 sixty-billionth of one percent. This is not a significant amount and would be very very unlikely to affect weather patterns.
oh yeah anticyclone move soon to be 96L
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These orbital elements are chaotic with respect to small perturbations, but can be predicted with good accuracy out to 20-30 million years, so we are not affected until at least that long by small changes like those due to earthquakes, volcanoes or the building/erosion of mountain ranges.
Sorry, but sometimes things need to be quoted so people know what's up.
I think Alex was significantly larger than Darby, which possibly contributed to the latter's demise. Also, was Darby still that strong at the time or was he already weakening?
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