Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.
Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.
Jeff Masters
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Here's the parallel GFS at 102 hours....
Morning.
Models don't take it anywhere near Alabama. Based on the NHC track, right now, it's headed for Mexico....
"THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT
AND PASS INTO THE SW GULF TUE. A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 21N93W BY TUE NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY W-NW TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THU."
You mean Dennis?
"TOOK PURE MEX MOS GUIDANCE AFTER WEDNESDAY. WAVENUMBER 5
COMPUTATIONS HAVE A RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A BIT OVER THIS AREA
WEDNESDAY THEN REBUILDING ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THAT WOULD BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR MORE NORTHERLY MOVEMENT OF WEAK BAROTROPIC WAVES IN
THE GULF."
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE TROPICAL
WAVE FORECAST TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THIS PERIOD. THE
WAVE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF
WEDNESDAY...AND TRACK WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COAST BY
FRI/SAT. HIGH PWS (2.0-2.5 INCHES) WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS (50S/60S) IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRAS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DRYING
TREND IN THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING THURSDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY TYPICAL LEVELS OF 30S/40S FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Excerpt:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N76W TO 17N80W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W.
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