Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4951 - 5001

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 — Blog Index

4951. hydrus 10:56 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: It's open on the west side. Do you think there was ever a closed low with 95L? Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14284

4952. mcluvincane 10:56 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: So much for "Forget 95L" pfffth Im second guessing a decision I made 2 Mths ago..In a BIG way. How bout dat 96L though? LOL Much more Semitic Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

4953. TerraNova 10:57 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Low level. Go to the CIMSS 96L page and then check vis 1km and check the surface, ship, and buoy observations. So then judging by satellite imagery movement would have to be WNW to NW which would have the cyclone crossing the northern Yucatan. This is the result of a center relocation, right? Interestingly the 18z BAM models initiate further south than the rest of the guidance. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

4954. TropicalNonsense 10:57 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
95L still trying to spin up a "small" area of convection. Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524

4955. CybrTeddy 10:57 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Don't see anything from the ATCF so far on a renumber. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20239

4957. NOLALawyer 10:57 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
95L may not be a "real" tropical system, but being under it all day, it has that "funny vibe" feeling to it that comes with tropical systems. I have been in enough to know that feeling. It is easy to discount it from afar, when it is on top of your head, it is a different matter entirely. Bravo to guys like Patrap that kept this in focus today. Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

4958. spathy 10:59 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Oh an 95L is looking to be more of a threat as it gets very close to land. . . And dont get me wrong. I am not pretending to be holier than.... As anyone one here knows I have lost it on this blog and am probably still on ignore by many. But after a few posts I give it up. And never during danger times. Ban me please if I do! Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10479

4959. Tazmanian 10:59 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Don't see anything from the ATCF so far on a renumber. when do they next update any one no? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

4961. kmanislander 10:59 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
I've gotta run now but will come back later. BFN Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

4962. Drakoen 10:59 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TerraNova: So then judging by satellite imagery movement would have to be WNW to NW which would have the cyclone crossing the northern Yucatan. This is the result of a center relocation, right? Interestingly the 18z BAM models initiate further south than the rest of the guidance. Yes Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

4964. Kristina40 11:00 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting NOLALawyer: 95L may not be a "real" tropical system, but being under it all day, it has that "funny vibe" feeling to it that comes with tropical systems. I have been in enough to know that feeling. It is easy to discount it from afar, when it is on top of your head, it is a different matter entirely. Bravo to guys like Patrap that kept this in focus today. Exactly. I likened it to the feeling before a Tornado up in the Midwest. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

4966. whipster 11:00 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting spathy: Bingo and thank you! People have forgotten how to debate for the most part, they take everything personally...Although here I have seen some very fine debates from some very learned people. Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 422

4967. aquak9 11:00 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
spathy I already have you on ignore hahahahaha Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

4968. wunderkidcayman 11:01 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Which support my idea look at comment #4930 Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5412

4969. RobertM320 11:01 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting msgambler: We are still getting blasted for talking about 95L. It seems we can only talk about the systems they want to talk about . msgambler, its not worth our breath. But, just let 96L become a Cat 2 heading for Corpus Christi, and we ignore it and discuss a wave in the CATL. They'd go nuts. No respect for the Gulf Coast. Time for me to take a break and go get some freah Gulf seafood. Seems no one else around the country wants any. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

4970. reedzone 11:01 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Seeing a nice tight circulation with 95L, as small as Marco in 2008. Interesting little storm, will probably NOT get designated at all since it's moving on shore NOW. ;) 96L looks better this evening,needs more organization tonight. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

4971. Inactivity 11:02 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: They technically could but would be reluctant to. They have classified a storm over Africa before, before it came off into the Atlantic. Do you know what storm that was? Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264

4972. MississippiBoy 11:02 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Storm,so if 96L gets it s act together and strengthens it COULD go more northerly than predicted and I know nothing is etched in stone. Member Since: April 6, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 278

4973. msgambler 11:03 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting RobertM320: msgambler, its not worth our breath. But, just let 96L become a Cat 2 heading for Corpus Christi, and we ignore it and discuss a wave in the CATL. They'd go nuts. No respect for the Gulf Coast. Time for me to take a break and go get some freah Gulf seafood. Seems no one else around the country wants any. POOF Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

4974. atmosweather 11:03 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Other than the fact that 95L has had very little deep convection near its COC even today when it became more defined, and is still seemingly at the base of a warm front based on the 18z HPC surface obs...the other thing is, what was the point of the NHC classifying the chances at 60% when the system is about to make landfall???...Why not just designate it as a TD/TS right then and there if they thought it had become significantly better organized and was producing 30 kt winds? And if they weren't thinking about upgrading it to a tropical cyclone...why would they post a 60% number in the first place 3 hours after they posted a near 0% chance? Just trying to get my brain around this... Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

4975. MississippiBoy 11:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Thanks for your input Pops. Member Since: April 6, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 278

4976. Bradenton 11:05 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting LightningCharmer: I enjoy the debate. Call me crazy. I just don't enjoy when the discussion is disrespectful, threatening, or uses inappropriate language. Children and adults can learn quite a bit by arguing as long as they don't let their emotions and egos get in the way. Well said. Many here need an ego check. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42

4977. Asta 11:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Anyone have a recommended precipitation forecast map for S.E.LA?? Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

4979. Kristina40 11:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting msgambler: POOF He was actually agreeing with you msgambler. I think you misread him. He has been following 95L as well. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

4980. PensacolaBuoy 11:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
95L should remind the army of amateur oil skimmers at the Deepwater Horizon site that they are highly unlikely to get a 5-day notice to evacuate for a threatening cyclone. I hope they develop a better plan than they seem to have now! Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 348

4981. palmpt 11:07 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Bradenton: Well said. Many here need an ego check. But storm should stay above the fray. Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

4982. RobertM320 11:07 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting msgambler: POOF poof??? I'm on your side. I was one of the ones arguing that we needed to watch 95L. And you poof me? WOW! Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

4983. Hhunter 11:07 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
looks like 96L is pulling it together like i thought it would by pulling the mid and low level center together. Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2886

4985. spathy 11:07 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aquak9: spathy I already have you on ignore hahahahaha Well now I know why you still like me.Snicker Looks like you may get some of our recent drizzle /storms /downpours. Stay safe and send me your storm supply list. You may have something I didnt think of:0) Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10479

4986. texascoastres 11:08 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Tar balls on Bolivar at galveston, they have tested it and it is a match to the dna of the gulf oil spill Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

4987. Ossqss 11:09 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting hydrus: Kinda strange watching the thunderstorms move from south to north this time of year. Yup, kinda like a anomalotropicasaurousmaximus Rex on the move :) Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

4988. msgambler 11:09 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Kristina40: He was actually agreeing with you msgambler. I think you misread him. He has been following 95L as well. You are correct Kristina, I misread it. Sorry Robert. Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

4989. biloxidaisy 11:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Wow... lots of tension here tonight... hate to see it in another month. Deep breath everyone.. deep breath... Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 243

4990. Asta 11:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
re:4974. atmosweather: It is going to rain. probably alot.. And just a few inches at the wrong time in an already saturated S.E. LA environment can cause street flooding in some areas. I just cautioned my elderly parents not to try and venture out and get caught in it until this system overwith... Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

4991. RobertM320 11:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Kristina40: He was actually agreeing with you msgambler. I think you misread him. He has been following 95L as well. Thanks, Kristina. And btwntx08 as well. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

4992. breeezee 11:11 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
hello everyone ,pressure dropping rather quickly here in morgan city hope it moves on shore before it gets to windy,with all that oil offshore wouldn't be pretty Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 90

4993. Orcasystems 11:11 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Ossqss: Yup, kinda like a anomalotropicasaurousmaximus Rex on the move :) Oh god...I can see JFV using that nick next time. Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

4994. BiloxiIsle 11:11 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting msgambler: POOF Wow, you "poof" people who agrees with you...to many "poof" happy people here. Member Since: May 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

4996. jaevortex 11:12 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
I really wish half you guys would get out of this blog and stop bickering like school kids so I can get on with reading good post from good informed WU bloggers. I really don't care who agrees with who or who put who on ignore. Seriously let's get on learning about the weather instead of learning about who's ignore list is longer and who's not talking to whom today. You all sound like a bunch of married couples bickering.

4997. RobertM320 11:12 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting biloxidaisy: Wow... lots of tension here tonight... hate to see it in another month. Deep breath everyone.. deep breath... lol, daisy, for sure... I'm really leaving now for some seafood...BBL Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

4998. Drakoen 11:12 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
While 96L is organizing convection it has yet to acquire a closed surface low. Wind reports south of the system are out of the east. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

4999. Patrap 11:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Near Current Image 5 years ago almost to the Hour My point the last 24 hours.. Mmmmmmmm,..L/o ribs Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

5000. xcool 11:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
jaevortex so true. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

5001. aquak9 11:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
spathy- we're not getting any rain here for probably a week. Storm supplies? well we were gonna crank up the genny but we forgot. beef jerky, instant coffee, toilet paper. And a rabies shot. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

Viewing: 4951 - 5001

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters