Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010 +2
Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...
Categories: Hurricane
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 5051 - 5101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

5051. kputerman26 11:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Orcasystems:
Not often we get Model consensus like this :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


how do you get that on google earth?
5052. aquak9 11:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036
5053. Kristina40 11:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

lol, that's ok. Although, at times, she acts like a hurricane...tearing through the house


I have six little mini "Hurricanes" to tear my house up. When 95L was forming near hear they all went to acting crazy for a couple days, the Greyhound joined them in the fun.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
5054. hurricanehanna 11:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting aquak9:
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.

same here in LA aqua....named storm deductible kicks in.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214
5055. Seastep 11:29 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
OK. For the 95L... and life... and such... knock it off.

You obviously don't live in FL.

Is it a weather event? Yes. Watch the weather, but this should not be something raising alarm.

This is from a storm (that's 150mph anchorage) that came through my neighborhood about a month ago.



95L is not going to produce that. Not even close.

If someone is not watching the weather and knowing that they are going to get some rain and wind, well, tough.

I guess the bottom line is, it is not something that needs to be prepared for.

Anyone in a hurricane effected area that is "really" concerned about this needs to move.

Looks nice, though. ;)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3407
5056. Patrap 11:29 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912
5057. CybrTeddy 11:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
I'm sorry to veer off topic.. but this just makes me angry and I have to vent this out. I personally know Charley, he's a great man, a former astro and a former Marine general.. I don't think he would say that.

NASA Chief: Next Frontier Better Relations With Muslim World

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said in a recent interview that his "foremost" mission as the head of America's space exploration agency is to improve relations with the Muslim world.

Though international diplomacy would seem well outside NASA's orbit, Bolden said in an interview with Al Jazeera that strengthening those ties was among the top tasks President Obama assigned him. He said better interaction with the Muslim world would ultimately advance space travel.

"When I became the NASA administrator -- or before I became the NASA administrator -- he charged me with three things. One was he wanted me to help re-inspire children to want to get into science and math, he wanted me to expand our international relationships, and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science ... and math and engineering," Bolden said in the interview.

The NASA administrator was in the Middle East last month marking the one-year anniversary since Obama delivered an address to Muslim nations in Cairo. Bolden spoke in June at the American University in Cairo -- in his interview with Al Jazeera, he described space travel as an international collaboration of which Muslim nations must be a part.

"It is a matter of trying to reach out and get the best of all worlds, if you will, and there is much to be gained by drawing in the contributions that are possible from the Muslim (nations)," he said. He held up the International Space Station as a model, praising the contributions there from the Russians and the Chinese.

However, Bolden denied the suggestion that he was on a diplomatic mission -- in a distinctly non-diplomatic role.

"Not at all. It's not a diplomatic anything," he said.

He said the United States is not going to travel beyond low-Earth orbit on its own and that no country is going to make it to Mars without international help.

Bolden has faced criticism this year for overseeing the cancellation of the agency's Constellation program, which was building new rockets and spaceships capable of returning astronauts to the moon. Stressing the importance of international cooperation in future missions, Bolden told Al Jazeera that the moon, Mars and asteroids are still planned destinations for NASA.

I promise not to go off topic again.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20629
5058. Kristina40 11:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
That's a good point aqua. Guess the people in LA should be happy no name for "lil fella".
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
5059. cloudy0day 11:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Just some questions from a new blogger, but long time lurker trying to learn more. There has been a blob of rain each morning now off of the southwest FL coast that sends a shield of rain up through central FL. Is this due to a stalled front? What how do I distinguish between upper and lower level spin in the clouds that I see on satellite?
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
5060. MiamiHurricanes09 11:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
As if the blog isn't long enough now, get ready for the 100 TWO's that are going to be posted...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002
5061. taco2me61 11:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
It rained down here from 5 till about 8:30. Came in from the Bay, but we needed it.

Be very "Carful What You Ask For"
It might be more than we all want....

LOL
Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2787
5062. Hardcoreweather2010 11:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
5063. stormpetrol 11:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
best spin i seen with 96L yet, it might get bumped to 40% at 8pm est
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6491
5064. Seastep 11:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
For 96L, StormW and Drak have taken the higher % route.

I'm going with CosmicEvents position, though.

Surface obs. No one really knows though. Another interesting one.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3407
5065. BiloxiIsle 11:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Kristina40:


I have six little mini "Hurricanes" to tear my house up. When 95L was forming near hear they all went to acting crazy for a couple days, the Greyhound joined them in the fun.

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.
Member Since: May 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
5066. MiamiHurricanes09 11:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting stormpetrol:
best spin i seen with 96L yet, it might get bumped to 40% at 8pm est
It will likely go to 40%, but IMO should be raised further to 50% or even 60%.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002
5067. mrsalagranny 11:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Hello everyone.So it looks like 96l is struggling tonight.Does anyone think it will get better organized this evening?
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
5068. CybrTeddy 11:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hello everyone.So it looks like 96l is struggling tonight.Does anyone think it will get better organized this evening?


96L's actually becoming better organized. 95L's at a red alert right now too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20629
5069. Kristina40 11:33 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.


They are, I trust the critters far more than I trust my local weather people. They don't need fancy devices to sense pressure drops.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
5070. Patrap 11:33 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?


Its in the Null spot as to Forward motion,

. seems the tightening of the Wind Field or circ is keeping it there as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912
5071. msgambler 11:33 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting taco2me61:

Be very "Carful What You Ask For"
It might be more than we all want....

LOL
Taco :o)
Be quiet, be very quiet....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
5072. AlexEmmett 11:33 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As if the blog isn't long enough now, get ready for the 100 TWO's that are going to be posted...

hahaha good point
5073. hurricanehanna 11:33 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Kristina40:


They are, I trust the critters far more than I trust my local weather people. They don't need fancy devices to sense pressure drops.

amen to that...my two dogs always let us know when the barometer drops...
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214
5074. GeoffreyWPB 11:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
96L doesn't look too bad to me:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9244
5075. plywoodstatenative 11:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
that blob of rain is what is giving us the flood warnings in south eastern broward. Its like each day we are getting pounded with either heat or rain.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147
5076. reedzone 11:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Looking at the visible, 95L actually does look like a TD, a very small TD at that. The little guy came really close, but no cigar, in other words, no classification.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249
5077. stormpetrol 11:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
I see 2 possible centers, one at 19.7N/83.8W , another at 18N/82.5W and I'm still confused!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6491
5079. LightningCharmer 11:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
For the last couple weeks the local news reports were stating the oil would probably not reach south Florida.

This isn't good news for south Florida. Why hire if the oil is not on its way? Could all this storm activity have something to do with this, or is it merely political?

BP Hiring 300 S. Floridians To Build Oil Response Team

Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111
5080. SiestaCpl 11:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


ahhh...tropical rain bands...and warm wet nearly firm land to sweeten it's path across the bayous...
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
5081. Kristina40 11:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
I said 96L seemed to be trying to pull itself back together earlier in the day. It still does.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
5082. msgambler 11:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.
I agree Biloxi. We had a shepard during Camille and she went nuts. All night long we had to try and keep her calm. We lived in Gulfport at the time
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
5083. skkippboo 11:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting hurricanehanna:

amen to that...my two dogs always let us know when the barometer drops...


How do they let you know?
Member Since: April 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
5084. MiamiHurricanes09 11:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting stormpetrol:
I see 2 possible centers, one at 19.7N/83.8W , another at 18N/82.5W and I'm still confused!
96L has multiple vorticies so it makes it difficult to pinpoint.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002
5085. aquak9 11:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
hanna, kristen- didn't know what other states it applied to.

watches/warnings have their good points and bad points.

I prefer picking apart the macrame of information here on WU, than being fed the stuff they feed the sheeple.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036
5086. plywoodstatenative 11:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Now on 95L, this coming from the Weather Channel that it could easily be named a tropical storm by landfall and that the national hurricane center was actually keeping a close eye on its development even though it was coming onshore into the Louisiana parish's. So with that said, are we looking at something like that for the rest of the season or something else?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147
5087. oakland 11:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
that blob of rain is what is giving us the flood warnings in south eastern broward. Its like each day we are getting pounded with either heat or rain.


I've been watching the western side of it move my way all day. I'm amazed it held together all the way from Naples
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520
5088. SiestaCpl 11:37 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


Its in the Null spot as to Forward motion,

. seems the tightening of the Wind Field or circ is keeping it there as well.



Goes13 low cloud product shows slow westerly drift as well...
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
5089. aquak9 11:37 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?


they float.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036
5090. mrsalagranny 11:37 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
You are right about 96l.I think I looked at an earlier post.Im sorry.And wow for 95l.It held in there.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
5092. Tazmanian 11:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
how march longer in tell this site updates


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111610
5093. Kristina40 11:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?


Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
5094. skkippboo 11:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting aquak9:


they float.


HAH!
Member Since: April 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
5095. MiamiHurricanes09 11:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Tazmanian:
how march longer in tell this site updates


Link
Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002
5096. xcool 11:40 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
WHY ROB
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526
5097. spathy 11:40 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting aquak9:
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.


Good point.
See NHC has alot to think about :0)
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529
5098. msgambler 11:40 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Good evening granny
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
5100. Seastep 11:41 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Sorry, forgot the pic in 5055...

Here it is:

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3407
5101. Tazmanian 11:41 PM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour.



my poor F 5 key
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111610

Viewing: 5051 - 5101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather
Partly Cloudy
64 °F
Partly Cloudy
Community Activity