Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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5201. msgambler 12:00 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Patrap: I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time. LOL Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

5202. xcool 12:00 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
LMAO Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

5203. Tazmanian 12:00 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
from 0 too 60 back too 0 lol Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

5204. Patrap 12:00 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Snicker..ack.. hee,hee.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

5206. cg2916 12:00 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Ha, back down to 0 for 95L. This reminds me so much of 90L from 2009. It was code red, then all of a sudden code yellow because it was moving inland. Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2953

5207. CybrTeddy 12:00 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

5208. GeoffreyWPB 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
No circle for the Antilles wave. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9246

5209. SiestaCpl 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: LMAO! LOLOL Bonnie is..here..gone...LOLOL but darn ruined my day in the sun! Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 345

5210. wfyweather 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
way ta go nhc Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

5211. cg2916 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh. Dunno. Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2953

5212. aquak9 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
elconando- that was awesome! Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

5214. reedzone 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go! Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

5215. tpawxguy 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Really?? At 5:10 there is a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development with the low in the Gulf. The new advisory...0% chance. Wow...that's a new one. Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

5216. CybrTeddy 12:01 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Alright, I'm going to call it. 95L's RIP.. finally. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

5217. wunderkidcayman 12:02 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
HA HA LOL YELLOW 0% AND 30% ORANNGE Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

5218. Patrap 12:02 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

5219. partylight 12:02 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
back to near zero Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

5221. MiamiHurricanes09 12:03 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
My question to the NHC: If you are just going to put it right back to 0%, what's the purpose of raising it to 60%. I've got a feeling that mister "STEWART" is going to get an ear fold by the big honcho. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

5222. cg2916 12:03 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting reedzone: I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go! We've seen this before in 90L from last year. Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2953

5223. Kristina40 12:03 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Canotore just said that winds are TS force but it is coming ashore now and it is not widespread so won't be classified. Mentioned that it is a problem for the oil recovery and has been all week. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

5224. bappit 12:03 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting reedzone: I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go! When it goes inland ... Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 4423

5225. muddertracker 12:03 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Looks like forecasters STEWART/CANGIALOSI's coloring contest didn't go over too well last night...this one is pretty conservative, imo...kimberlain like, even... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2167

5227. stormwatcherCI 12:03 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Alright, I'm going to call it. 95L's RIP.. finally. I wouldn't call it RIP until it is no longer able to cause any damage or flooding. Until then maybe not a tropical system but still alive and kicking. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8058

5228. cg2916 12:03 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
What warranted a 60% in the first place? Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2953

5229. skkippboo 12:04 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Ok, everybody back in their chairs yet? Member Since: April 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

5231. xcool 12:04 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
now you know why i was lol Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

5232. MiamiHurricanes09 12:04 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

5233. TheDawnAwakening2 12:04 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
The NHC page hasn't even updated yet, so cool down. Member Since: December 4, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 251

5234. bappit 12:04 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh. Maybe the point is named Humberto. Whatever. Fortunately we don't have anything important to argue about. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 4423

5236. ElConando 12:04 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
"Go to tropics chat"- Eddye Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

5237. calder 12:04 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
good god people. Think about it. 95L suddenly started trying to organise and it looked to the nhc like it might be able to make depression status before landfall - hence the special advisory at 60%... Now since we're close to coc landfall and the system isn't yet a depression hence the percentage drops to near 0. Is it really that hard to comprehend? Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

5238. Hardcoreweather2010 12:05 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
From 0% to 60% back to 0% I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

5239. bappit 12:05 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting cg2916: What warranted a 60% in the first place? The little system was intensifying. Patrap posted a nice radar loop on it. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 4423

5240. Patrap 12:05 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting cg2916: What warranted a 60% in the first place? Musta been my YouTube video from 4:30 pm CDT Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

5241. washingaway 12:05 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Sure looks like something will happen in the gulf soon enough. Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1127

5243. weathermancer 12:06 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
BONNIE RED ALERT!!!!! (cancelled) Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 11 Comments: 481

5245. calder 12:06 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: for those u posted the TWO miami was the only allowed to post it no one else oh really? u should probably email admin. actually from now on i'm the only one allowed to speculate exaggerated percentages... Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

5247. TheDawnAwakening2 12:06 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Just updated, my bad. Post season analysis could reveal a sub tropical depression instead. Onto 96L, which is showing signs of development, although this could be a theme like last night where it looked good and then fizzled. Tomorrow morning will be interesting near DMAX. Member Since: December 4, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 251

5248. Hurricanes101 12:07 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: A lot of dissapointed people........ In the end that got it right IMO not disappointed here Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

5249. xcool 12:07 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Tazmanian LOL Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

5250. Darklight 12:07 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
So is he going to give Iran some new rockets to advance O'bamas muslim agenda?

5251. RobertM320 12:07 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Seastep: OK. For the 95L... and life... and such... knock it off. You obviously don't live in FL. Is it a weather event? Yes. Watch the weather, but this should not be something raising alarm. This is from a storm (that's 150mph anchorage) that came through my neighborhood about a month ago. 95L is not going to produce that. Not even close. If someone is not watching the weather and knowing that they are going to get some rain and wind, well, tough. I guess the bottom line is, it is not something that needs to be prepared for. Anyone in a hurricane effected area that is "really" concerned about this needs to move. Looks nice, though. ;) Seastep....Informative MAIL Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

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