A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Weather456:
@85

It is broad so it encompasses the general area south of the Caymans.


Ah ok. I'm getting better I just had a small part of it. :)
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How many points, 456?
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Well, this is the second weekend in a row that my golf game got cancelled due to weather. Standing water all over the course. This is the first time in 6 years this happened which is an indicator that weather conditions in the NW Caribbean have been more active this year than in years past. Hopefully not a sign of anything to come but not a good sign for sure.

I was taking a look at the area just entering the Caribbean and noticed that the 925 mb vorticity with it is almost as good as that with 96L. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become 97L over the next 12 hours or so.

I see this as a greater potential threat down the road than 96L as the latter will likely have its development interferred with by the Yucatan peninsula.

Here is the 925 mb map with the two areas in question.



Goodmorning Kman, I read that 96L looks like its going to take a similar path to Alex. I see 96L taking a totally different path than Alex, even if it heads towards MX/TX boarder. I feel like its going to go over its own warm waters and not have much land interference going into the GOM! Would like your thoughts on this and also how much faster do you anticipate 96L to develope than Alex?
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LOOKS LIKE 32 POINTS WE NEED 3 TO 5 POINTS FOR A T.C.F.A.
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96. IKE
Here's the coordinates for Alex when it was designated a TD...

06/25 22 GMT 16.50 -83.50 35 1004 Tropical Depression


Here's the listed coordinates for 96L as of 12Z....

12 GMT 07/4/10 16.2N 83.0W 25 1010 Invest
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quite clear from this where the low is in the NW Caribbean

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Can someone sprinkle their magic pixy dust and get a floater put on 96L?

Thanks...
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@85

It is broad so it encompasses the general area south of the Caymans.
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REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
**********************************************************
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Quoting Weather456:
Also according to the center given by the "NHC", the system already is north of the precursor of Alex so while the heading maybe similar to Alex, it appears it will be north thereof.


The steering currents push it NNW-NW. I'd be very surprised if it took a southern Alex-like track. I'd expect a more N Texas-like track if this develops.
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thanks Ike and others. There are a few of you that I pay attention to here. I say they would wish it on themselves until they were in the middle of one. Chest deep screaming to God to save them. Thanks to all of you serious folks again.
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlm/atlantic/dlm1.GIF
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Quoting Weather456:
I do not think the NHC is being aggressive enough on 96L. It has more like a 40% chance.


Agreed, and they're being too aggressive on 95L, that shouldn't even be an invest. However, they're watching it because of the Oil Spill cleanup efforts.
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Quoting Weather456:
I suspect a broad circulation is developing south of the easternmost Caymans.


I see a circulation right below looks like the westernmost island. On zoomed in RGB. Just the west of 80. Draw a ine strait out from Jamaica. Lol. I know this is technical and all. :)
Link
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yeah Weather456 around there but I am seeing it more south and a little bit more east just SW of Jamaica near 17.0N 78.5W and that is where I feel the Relocated COC should could will be
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:


hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...... low level steering.....

Shallow layer steering remains that way until about 48 hours. Link: PSU e-WALL forecast steering
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Also according to the center given by the "NHC", the system already is north of the precursor of Alex so while the heading maybe similar to Alex, it appears it will be north thereof.
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Quoting 422brzyldy:
I have a question before all the nonsense spewing bloggers get in on this then I'll leave everyone alone and go back to trying to learn something from the sensible bloggers. Why, when there is a system in the Gulf do some always aim it for their own area? Have they ever seen the destruction from a hurricane? NHC doesn't even have to get the evac part of the word out before I pack up and head for higher ground. Sorry but I just have to know why they would wish that hell on themselves.


Sometimes they're noobs, sometimes the models point there, sometimes the models don't point there but something dictates that it should go there.
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80. IKE
Quoting 422brzyldy:
I have a question before all the nonsense spewing bloggers get in on this then I'll leave everyone alone and go back to trying to learn something from the sensible bloggers. Why, when there is a system in the Gulf do some always aim it for their own area? Have they ever seen the destruction from a hurricane? NHC doesn't even have to get the evac part of the word out before I pack up and head for higher ground. Sorry but I just have to know why they would wish that hell on themselves.


Because they are wishcasters...they want to experience a system...or think they do. It's always been that way by a few, on here.

I'm waiting for the....there's a trough coming east and it will turn it...posts.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
We have been having another torrential downpour today, getting an early start!

This convection reminds me of tropical cyclone rain bands, its WAY heavier then the radar can really paint...

With rain getting such n early start, today is gonna be crazy stormy!

The PWAT came in around 2.40 today, its been this high for several days now... Let it pour!
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We have a very slow moving ridge across the Eastern United States, with a trough not being able to move in until 4-5 days. Therefore I would be surprise to see a track very similar to Alex. For now, Alex should move more towards the WNW to NW so track may end up slightly north of Alex's points.
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Quoting IKE:
UKMET 00Z @ 54 hours...



Nothing that I can see.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Happy Independence Day everyone.


You, too.
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Good morning

Well, this is the second weekend in a row that my golf game got cancelled due to weather. Standing water all over the course. This is the first time in 6 years this happened which is an indicator that weather conditions in the NW Caribbean have been more active this year than in years past. Hopefully not a sign of anything to come but not a good sign for sure.

I was taking a look at the area just entering the Caribbean and noticed that the 925 mb vorticity with it is almost as good as that with 96L. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become 97L over the next 12 hours or so.

I see this as a greater potential threat down the road than 96L as the latter will likely have its development interferred with by the Yucatan peninsula.

Here is the 925 mb map with the two areas in question.



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I have a question before all the nonsense spewing bloggers get in on this then I'll leave everyone alone and go back to trying to learn something from the sensible bloggers. Why, when there is a system in the Gulf do some always aim it for their own area? Have they ever seen the destruction from a hurricane? NHC doesn't even have to get the evac part of the word out before I pack up and head for higher ground. Sorry but I just have to know why they would wish that hell on themselves.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The BAMMS did not go more right in this 12z run.



hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...... low level steering.....

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Happy Independence Day everyone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
The one thing people need to be aware of with the ATCF site is the data changes frequently, not only current data but past data. This morning at 2 AM the location was shown as 17.5N 82W. On the recent update they changed the 2 AM position to 15.8N 81.9W. So now it is if the previous 2 AM position never existed.
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It appears slightly east of the models initialization point.
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Quoting IKE:
High pressure is the USA's friend, so far in 2010 in the tropics.

Comment #63...then the first coordinates on 96L on WU were off. It's simply moving WNW at 290 degrees at 11 knots...


Yes but could also be its worst nightmare in the near future.
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Quoting Weather456:
I do not think the NHC is being aggressive enough on 96L. It has more like a 40% chance.
it will be at 40 soon enough maybe at 2pm
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I suspect a broad circulation is developing south of the easternmost Caymans.
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66. IKE
UKMET 00Z @ 54 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
65. IKE
High pressure is the USA's friend, so far in 2010 in the tropics.

Comment #63...then the first coordinates on 96L on WU were off. It's simply moving WNW at 290 degrees at 11 knots...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
INV/96/L
MARK
16.3N/83.4W
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more resons for my thought on the relocation of the COC AL 96 2010070412 BEST 0 162N 830W 25 1010 DB last it was 2010070406 BEST 0 158N 819W 25 1011 DB

i SAY THE CENTER IS AT THE SAME LAT AND LONG THAT WAS IS MY COMMENT A FEW MINUTES AGO

ooops sorry for the caps
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992

WHXX01 KWBC 041318

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1318 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100704 1200 100705 0000 100705 1200 100706 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.2N 83.0W 17.8N 85.3W 19.3N 87.3W 20.6N 89.1W

BAMD 16.2N 83.0W 17.3N 84.7W 18.2N 86.2W 18.9N 87.6W

BAMM 16.2N 83.0W 17.4N 84.7W 18.4N 86.3W 19.4N 87.9W

LBAR 16.2N 83.0W 17.5N 84.7W 18.6N 86.1W 19.7N 87.6W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 32KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100706 1200 100707 1200 100708 1200 100709 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.8N 90.7W 23.7N 94.0W 24.8N 97.9W 25.0N 101.8W

BAMD 19.6N 88.8W 20.2N 91.4W 20.4N 94.4W 20.2N 97.5W

BAMM 20.3N 89.3W 21.7N 92.2W 22.7N 95.7W 23.2N 99.4W

LBAR 20.8N 89.1W 23.1N 92.0W 25.1N 94.7W 26.3N 97.8W

SHIP 47KTS 61KTS 72KTS 77KTS

DSHP 28KTS 39KTS 51KTS 36KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 80.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 77.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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The BAMMS did not go more right in this 12z run.

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60. IKE
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT


Should be over the Yucatan tomorrow at that speed and motion.

I think the NHC has a good track on 96L...

"A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 21N93W BY TUE NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY W-NW TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THU."

From here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning everyone.

I did not check in here yesterday so did not know about the 2nd invest until now. YIKES.

Hope they both just go away without any problems anywhere!

Just stopping in to wish Dr Masters and his staff and all of you a
wonderful Independence Day!

Celebrate safely and have a good time.

Happy Birthday America!
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The latesst CMC Model looks like it has 96L going straight for central LA and then takes a little hook to the left before landfall hitting on the TX/LA border. I think 96L is going to be more of a central Gulf Coast threat.
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ahhhhh,fully expected a new born 96L this morning!!!,Happy fourth of July everyone!!!!!!,I'm expecting 96L to impact SWFL's weather mid-late week,its allready been one soggy weekend looks like the moisture train is going to be aimed at my area today as well...
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I hope then that something turns it south again!
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...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 80.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 77.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Bye...
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96l will be farther north.
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Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Morning! Look at how small 95L is! It's almost cute!



Reminds me of Ana of last year, or Marco of '08.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.