A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 51 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 — Blog Index

Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Morning! Look at how small 95L is! It's almost cute!



Reminds me of Ana of last year, or Marco of '08.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Carver

Also thanks weather 456, love your updates!

Happy 4th all! No real plans here today but nothing wrong with that :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning! Look at how small 95L is! It's almost cute!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:


well, it's gotta get itself stacked first. After that, it'll probably drive us crazy like Alex did. I'd honestly expect model movement to follow the same fluctuations as Alex.

But all in all? Probably somewhere within 250 miles of where Alex went.


250 miles north or south?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
47. mlb
This moisture isnt so bad (FL east coast). The temps are cool and the hibiscus are blooming!

The latest storms cant be good for the oil spill tho

Happy 4th all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What are the models saying about development near the bahamas?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


And it was at....06 GMT 07/4/10 17.5N 82.0W 25 1011 Invest


Looking at a visable loop appears at the previous position is a smaller vortex that may be rotating within a larger one that NHC has as the current position. Who knows, the smaller vortex may win out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


The one good thought is if 96L follows the same track as Alex (as predicted by some of the models) is the lower water temps because of the wake of Alex. So probably will have difficult time developing as much as Alex did.
It really doesn't take very long for the water to regain its heat.

Strong systems really get the water churned up, bringing cooler water to the surface in large amounts, but weaker systems like Alex (over most of its track) only cool the very top of the sea.

I'm going to look for some class notes I took last semester that describe the algorithm between hurricane strength, speed, and depth of water column affected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
28. earthlydragonfly 9:03 AM AST on July 04, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning All

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected

Tropical Update




Very insightful.. while reading it I would think "what about the Bermuda High and SAL" and things and you covered it all!! Well done and thank you


Thanks and anytime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
42. IKE
That's close to Honduras...this is headed across the Yucatan. Alex, part 2...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning guys I see finally we have 96L buy I think that our real COC is around 17.0N 78.5W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I do not think the NHC is being aggressive enough on 96L. It has more like a 40% chance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
39. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 96 2010070412 BEST 0 162N 830W 25 1010 DB


And it was at....06 GMT 07/4/10 17.5N 82.0W 25 1011 Invest
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Inactivity:


LOL,the only track difference I can find is that it might go through the Yucatan channel.
This is what is expected by StormW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the Holiday update...WOW, sue hope this weather pattern calms down enough for BP to plug the spill....FAST
Pray for a miracle...We need it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL 96 2010070412 BEST 0 162N 830W 25 1010 DB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingaway:
96L looks like it might be Alex jr.


LOL,the only track difference I can find is that it might go through the Yucatan channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingaway:
96L looks like it might be Alex jr.


The one good thought is if 96L follows the same track as Alex (as predicted by some of the models) is the lower water temps because of the wake of Alex. So probably will have difficult time developing as much as Alex did.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Possible second Caribbean threat?




Most definately,just not now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
96L models


How do you get all of those weather things on Google EaRTH?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
slides in sideways, hits the wall....man I hate these cyber-jumps...
you didn't spill any coffee did ya?
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L looks like it might be Alex jr.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very very wet here in SWFL too; all the action seems to be funneling moisture our way! Not going to be pretty if we stay this wet through to Aug/Sept, and then get a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning All

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected

Tropical Update




Very insightful.. while reading it I would think "what about the Bermuda High and SAL" and things and you covered it all!! Well done and thank you
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update DRC. Enjoy your holiday. :)

Hope I'm not flirting with a ban here.

Happy Birthday Suite Madam Blue!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone. This shot is from the lantana bridge taken a few minutes ago. They normally launch the fireworks from a barge but this year they will b launching from on shore due to economic reasons. Unfortunately the rain chance is at 70 percent though were hoping for a break come showtime.



Happy 4th!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi All,
Hot here in Boston. Heat wave - 90 Deg for the next 7 days! Does anyone know if the waters off the cost of Mass are at record highs like the rest of the Atlantic? Alot of shark sightings off of Cape Cod.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beeleeva:
Morning all! Happy 4th!! Not quite as soggy in Katy as it has been...


This summer seems to be setting up similar to 07 in Texas. We had about 6.5 inches of rain in the gauge last night and it rained more during the night. 6.5 in six days is over 25 percent of our annual rainfall out here near the Rio Grande. Thanks Alex.
Now Invest 96 is lurking out there and at least rain from 95 out in E. TEX. It must be an El Nino year!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting itrackstorms:
Good Morning 96L...

I almost posted this view just now but saw you had already. IDK but almost looks to me like the COC is closer to 80W than 82W and around 17.9N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Dr. Carver. I appreciate the update!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting Huracaneer:
Thanks Aqua9. But why would it take the more western course rather than the eastern one as shown here (the CIMMS site layer analysis).
StormW was on earlier and he said he expects the models to shift east. He said he will be back on this evening after church.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Aqua9. But why would it take the more western course rather than the eastern one as shown here (the CIMMS site layer analysis).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr.Carver thank you, enjoy your 4th and look forward to your posts while Dr.Masters is on vacation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Possible second Caribbean threat?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all! Happy 4th!! Not quite as soggy in Katy as it has been...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Huracaneer:
Well tried to post a question and a new blog started. Here in the Tampa bay area drowning in continuous tropical rain and no wind. Almost feels like a coming tropical system (except for the no wind part). The question is (anyone who knows please comment), if like 96L there are steering currents, one N to NE and one more West, which way is the storm going to go?


well, it's gotta get itself stacked first. After that, it'll probably drive us crazy like Alex did. I'd honestly expect model movement to follow the same fluctuations as Alex.

But all in all? Probably somewhere within 250 miles of where Alex went.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25838
Good Morning 96L...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well tried to post a question and a new blog started. Here in the Tampa bay area drowning in continuous tropical rain and no wind. Almost feels like a coming tropical system (except for the no wind part). The question is (anyone who knows please comment), if like 96L there are steering currents, one N to NE and one more West, which way is the storm going to go?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning All

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected

Tropical Update


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L Have a great 4th of July

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L models

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
slides in sideways, hits the wall....man I hate these cyber-jumps...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25838
Here's an article describing long term averages for tropical activity in July from TWC...

Typical July Atlantic Tropical Activity

I have a feeling this July may be Atypical...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. Look pretty ominous. Skies are clear and sunny here in New England. Have a great 4th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning... thx Doc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 51 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
77 °F
Mostly Cloudy