Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting extreme236:
96L will probably be 30% max on the next TWO IMO. Should see a circle east of the Antilles also. Probably a yellow 10% one.

Quoting ThePlywoodState:


How dare you insult moi that way? :(.

Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS through 180 hours.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody seen the graphic for it recently? That was one of our better forecasting tools.... lol

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is your anwser

The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.


1950 Baker--Alabama....1950 Dog--out to sea....1951 Charlie--Yucatan/Mexico....1952 Baker-- out to sea....1953 Carol--Nova scotia....1954 ALice--Leeward isl out to sea....1955 Connie--N Carolina....1955 Ione--N Carolina....1956 Betsy--N Antilles, PR,Bahamas....1958 Fifi--out to sea....1958 Ilsa--out to sea....1960 DonnaN Antilles,Bahamas,Fla,east seaboard....1963 Edith--windward isl,PR,Hispaniola....1964 Cleo--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Fla....1966 Faith--N Antilles....1966 Inez--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Bahamas,Fla,Yucatan,Mex....1967Beulah--Hispaniola,Yucata,S Texas....1975 Eloise--Hispaniola,Fla panhandle....1979 David--Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Fla,Ga,Sc....1984 Klaus--out to sea....1985 Gloria--NE U.S....1989 dean--Bermuda,Newfoundland....1989 Hugo--N Antilles,PR,SC....1990 Klaus-- out to sea....1995 Luis--N Antilles,New foundland....1995 Marilyn--N antilles,VI.PR....1996 Bertha--N antilles,VI,PR,N carolina....1996 Fran--N Carolina....1996 Hortense--PR,Nova scotia....1997 Erika--out to sea....1998 Georges--N antilles,VI,PR,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Keys,mississippi....1999 Jose--N antilles,VI....1999 Lenny--N antilles....2000 Debby--n antilles,VI,Hispaniola....2004 FrancesBahamas,Treasure coast,Fla....2008 Omar VI.....




BOX #2 (since 1950)
1951 Item Cayman isl,Cuba....1952 FoxCaymans,Cuba,Bahamas....1961 HattieBelize....1981 KatrinaCuba,Bahamas....1988 GilbertYucatan,mexico....1995 RoxanneYucatan....1998 MitchHonduras....2001 irisBelize....2001 MichelleCuba,Bahamas....2004 Charley W cuba,Fla....2005 EmilyYucatan,Mexico....2005 WilmaYucatan,S Fla....2006 Dean Yucatan....


So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).

What about Box #2,Hurricanes developing or moving through after Oct 1st since 1950?
Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.

To wrap things up, two significant Hurricanes that hit South Fla did not pass through this box, Andrew 1992, and Betsy 1965!. Data may be slightly off because these boxes were based on data going back to 1900. We chose named storms since 1950 for recognition purposes.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z CMC takes 96L to LA in ~60 hours.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My opinion:

95L - Near 0% chance.
96L - 40% chance.
Antilles AOI - 20%.

For the next 48 hours.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's basically what forecasted steering currents will yield for. I don't think 96L will go over the Yucatan but rather the Yucatan channel from what I'm seeing.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z CMC takes 96L to LA in ~60 hours.

Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Good to see you too, Ontario bear!

Quoting extreme236:


I don't know, maybe. ECMWF seems pretty sure it's going to hit Mexico.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
listen up cockroach your about to get stomp on

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF 12z 30 hours

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF 12z 30 hours

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF 12z 30 hours

Quoting Bordonaro:

Looks like HWRF is pretty quick to develop 96L into a strong TS/weak Hurricane in 30 hrs.

Quoting extreme236:


That's crazy.

Quoting Orcasystems:


he isn't worth a ban KOG

Quoting xcool:
look out ROB BIG BIG MOM COME FOR YOU .