Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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601. Hurricanes101 5:34 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
The images from the LSU site are creating havoc on my internet connection Every other page loads fine for me and when there are no LSU images on the page here it loads fine as well Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

602. Tazmanian 5:34 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: IS JFV HERE yup he be banned Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

603. extreme236 5:34 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Well, I guess no circle east of the Antilles yet. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

604. IKE 5:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS........... How is it suppose to develop if it's heading generally WNW @ 15 mph? That places it over the Yucatan. Now if they said it was moving NW then I agree it has a shot within 48 hours. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

605. louisianaweatherguy 5:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: LOL, GFDL kills 96L in 12 hours. It did the same thing with 93L for those who remember. yeah and it kept alex as a tropical storm in the gulf, too... it was a CAT2 Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 685

606. Tazmanian 5:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting extreme236: Well, I guess no circle east of the Antilles yet. you can all ways E mail the nhc Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

607. wfyweather 5:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting extreme236: Well, I guess no circle east of the Antilles yet. It isnt needed just yet. Theres no guidance support plus conditions arent that favorable. They know it needs to be watched in 3-5 days... but not in the next 48 hours. Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

608. nrtiwlnvragn 5:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L 12Z GFDL graphics. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8932

609. MichelSouris 5:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
70mph-80mph winds in Scotland today - not tropical, but unusual for July in the UK!

610. Dakster 5:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quick. Someone hide the red crayon from the NHC... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

611. Drakoen 5:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. .......... How is it suppose to develop if it's heading generally WNW @ 15 mph? That places it over the Yucatan. Now if they said it was moving NW then I agree it has a shot within 48 hours. It is not over the Yucatan now. Not expected to reach there until Monday evening. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

612. MiamiHurricanes09 5:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Some slow organization is definitely taking place. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

615. Neapolitan 5:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting wfyweather: guys.... Alex absolutely drained the gulf of mexico of warm waters... 96L may develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm... but it will not measure up to Alex.... unless it stalls or something and lets the heat content build back up "Aboslutely drained"? Methinks that's a bit of an overstatement; at best, Alex dropped the SSTs in a swath running along the northern egde of the BOC by a single degree or so. The SSTs in that area could drop several more degrees and still support some nasty stuff. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11157

617. MiamiHurricanes09 5:39 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: "Aboslutely drained"? Methinks that's a bit of an overstatement; at best, Alex dropped the SSTs in a swath running along the northern egde of the BOC by a single degree or so. The SSTs in that area could drop several more degrees and still support some nasty stuff. No, he literally drained ocean heat content. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

618. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:39 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting ThePlywoodState: Perdon, was that a threat, analfabeto? Ooooooohhhhhhhhh, you are certainly asking for it now, Keeps. Oh, admin................ Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40551

619. MiamiHurricanes09 5:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: I still believe it may go through the channel. I agree. Steering forces it towards the channel. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

620. Dakster 5:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
If you ask me, Alex just "stirred the pot" of hot water... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

621. Tazmanian 5:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
and overe loop eddy and overe BP Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

622. xcool 5:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

623. muddertracker 5:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Looks like Mexico/Texas might have to take another one for the team. I'm not sure if we can do this all season long, though. Where's all the SHEER? Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

624. Tazmanian 5:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: hey keep this put him on Ignore Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

625. hydrus 5:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: old dirty 95L SHOWS LIFE It looks busy out there now. I cannot imagine what it will be like in August, September and October. If this pattern holds, there will be some really big storms moving into the Gulf. Alex was impressive. Next ones most likely will be more intense. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

626. Dakster 5:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
KOTG, LMFAO... You always have the best smiley graphics... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

627. extreme236 5:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Decent Weather Channel tropical update: M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Jul. 4, 2010 12:10 pm ET The tropics remain quiet around the globe. However, there are a few areas of interest. The first is in the northern Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure has been drifting westward and northwestward along a stalled frontal boundary. This low currently does not have tropical characteristics and is not expected to gain them before it moves ashore. Mid-level dry air is the main inhibitor for this system. In the western Caribbean, there is a tropical wave that is producing showers and some thunderstorms. In contrast to the system in the northern Gulf, this system in the Caribbean is in an environment that is conducive for development but probably not until it passes across the Yucatan and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico early week. A westbound tropical wave moving into the Windward and Leeward Islands is producing showers and brief gusty winds. Any chances for development are several days away when it is expected to reach the western Caribbean. The remnants of the front east of Florida and over the Gulf Stream is in a good position to evolve slowly into a low over the next few days. If the thunderstorms persist, this low could take on tropical characteristics. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

628. muddertracker 5:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
roflmao keeper! Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

629. stormwatcherCI 5:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting jlp09550: GOM disturbance blew up since last night..or at least a little. This one might surprise all the doomcasters. Lol Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

630. xcool 5:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
hydrus .yeah very busy August September Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

631. Bordonaro 5:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: "Aboslutely drained"? Methinks that's a bit of an overstatement; at best, Alex dropped the SSTs in a swath running along the northern egde of the BOC by a single degree or so. The SSTs in that area could drop several more degrees and still support some nasty stuff. The TCHP in the BOC area is pretty low because waters a very shallow <500 feet. Athough SST'S have rebounded to 82F. However, IF 96L tracks further northward, then we may have a problem. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

633. MiamiHurricanes09 5:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L almost directly over the warm patch of the 110ish kJ cm-2 heat content. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

634. Tazmanian 5:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting ThePlywoodState: Taz, mail! That outta shut you up for a while, -_-. re ported evere one hit re ported Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

635. xcool 5:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
"""") Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

637. Hardcoreweather2010 5:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
have a great 4th Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

638. Tazmanian 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting ThePlywoodState: Taz, mail! That outta shut you up for a while, -_-. that was un call for Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

639. hydrus 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: It is not over the Yucatan now. Not expected to reach there until Monday evening. With all that warm water, it could strengthen quickly.jmo Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

640. Bordonaro 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 96L almost directly over the warm patch of the 110ish kJ cm-2 heat content. Looks like 96L may be a little slow to develop. Convection is holding its own, she slowly boils away in the Western Caribbean Sea. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

641. scott39 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Did the NHC stop putting up floaters? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

642. leo305 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
a swirl seems to have formed west/wnw of jamaica moving NW/NNW at the moment.. it was a mid level spin, but it looks closer to the surface now Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

643. earthlydragonfly 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: I still believe it may go through the channel. after looking at those steering currents aloft... If it hits the channel will it make more of a easterly turn after reaching the gulf? Oh and good 4th of July to you Sir! Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1649

644. msgambler 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Hey Taz, just forward it to Admin. and ignore him. Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

646. TexasHurricane 5:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: I still believe it may go through the channel. Hi Storm, I realize it is early but where and how strong do you think this 96L will be? Just from what you are seeing now.... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

647. Drakoen 5:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Convection on the increase during the daytime and surface pressures falling when they typically should be rising. Something going on at the surface. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

648. MiamiHurricanes09 5:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Forget 95L. Agree. It basically has a 0% chance of development. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

650. Tazmanian 5:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting msgambler: Hey Taz, just forward it to Admin. and ignore him. thank you Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

651. mrsalagranny 5:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Forget the popcorn.Its time for something a lil stronger.Chips and Dip and a cold Dr. Pepper..........LOL!!!!!!Boy it is getting its act together isnt it.Storm if it follows the steering pattern could it then be a threat to Louisiana/Ms? Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 732

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