Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StormW:


Looking where they have the "center" located for initialization, I would say the channel.

I agree. I will go by with whatever you say stormW.

Quoting cooldayr:
Ok poll time

Do you think invest 96 will

A) fall apart
B) become a tropical depression
C) become a tropical storm
D) become a weak hurricane
E) become a major hurricane

Hmm this is hard, probably borderline C/D. Either strong tropical storm or weak hurricane if it develops. I'll have to go with C though.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


And we're back to the same buoy that we were at when Alex was developing. Unbelievable lol.

The fact that we already have a code orange just a couple days after Alex means that we are entering the real season, Alex wasn't a sporadic early storm, he was the beginning of a long consistent onslaught...

Indeed.

30% not enough

Quoting futuremet:


I do not think this is the case. The ridge is not as strong as it was during Alex.

My current thinking takes it through the Yucatan channel, thereafter it becomes uncertain. But I am leaning more towards a Texas event.

hmm

My SWAG is for C. Cat 1-2 Hurricane.

Quoting Levi32:
Back later.

Link ....This looks unsettling...The NAM model..

Quoting Weather456:
30% not enough

What would you put it at ?

There is no such thing as a weak Hurricane.

If it's a Hurricane and a Shingle hits you at 74mph,its still gonna leave a mark.


They called Hurricane for a reason.

I hope NOTHING hits the Gulf until that mess is cleaned up !!But weather is tough to predict !!

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


And we're back to the same buoy that we were at when Alex was developing. Unbelievable lol.

The fact that we already have a code orange just a couple days after Alex means that we are entering the real season, Alex wasn't a sporadic early storm, he was the beginning of a long consistent onslaught...

93L was weak at the time it seem like 96L is stronger

12Z EURO landfall Brownsville

Quoting Weather456:
30% not enough

Agree. I think it should be at 40% or 50%. But then again, Kimberlain wrote in part the outlook. :)

It isn't that the ridge is weaker this time around, is that it is located further east.

26C depth Isotherm

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What would you put it at ?

40-50%

I THINK 96L further N

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My current thinking takes it through the Yucatan channel, thereafter it becomes uncertain. But I am leaning more towards a Texas event.

Yes, I am thinking the same thing for the moment. The 12Z CMC seems a little too bullish with the trough.

12Z EURO landfall Brownsville

Quoting Patrap:
There is no such thing as a weak Hurricane.

If it's a Hurricane and a Shingle hits you at 74mph,its still gonna leave a mark.


They called Hurricane for a reason.

And if it is a roof tile, it will leave a little more than a mark...

If anyone missed it

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected

How can I block content from a certain site so it does not transfer

For some reason the lsu site is making my browser take forever to load the page

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
A shame that we don't have recon today cause 95L could have easily been at least a subtropical tc. It also bothers me when most of you all say that it's dead and want to worry about 96L that is not going to bother anybody for days when there is system that is going to impact LA tomorrow. How can you say it's dead when it's looks the best that it's looked since it was tagged an invest ?

Because it looked much better yesterday early afternoon. It's a very small convective cluster that would not have garnered an ST dvorak number of higher than 1.0 at best.

95L looks like a mini TS and I think 96L will be a northerly Alex

INV/96/L
MARK
17.1N/81.4W

So you think it is more organized than the NHC thinks ?

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
A shame that we don't have recon today cause 95L could have easily been at least a subtropical tc. It also bothers me when most of you all say that it's dead and want to worry about 96L that is not going to bother anybody for days when there is system that is going to impact LA tomorrow. How can you say it's dead when it's looks the best that it's looked since it was tagged an invest ?

no need for one will you give 95L a rest its done it overe 95L is RIP gone it had it ch but nevere made it so put 95L too rest and move on too 96L plz

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

96L has the capabilities of rivaling Alex if it goes north of his track. Similar to how Emily track south of Dennis and Felix tracked south of Dean. And the highest heat content is in the central GOM

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN

Quoting xcool:
12Z EURO landfall Brownsville

What intensity are we looking at in terms of millibars?

Quoting futuremet:


Yes, I am thinking the same thing for the moment. The 12Z CMC seems a little too bullish with the trough.

Agreed.

Quoting Dakster:


And if it is a roof tile, it will leave a little more than a mark...

A large dent?..lol

btwntx08 (

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So you think it is more organized than the NHC thinks ?

Looking at the visible images, the system appears well organize, its circulation however is not as define but it deserves a higher percentage especially if we are looking at 48 hrs as in the NHC TWO.

Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN

how many time do we need too see that lol

Quoting Weather456:
If anyone missed it

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected

Very good outlook and update. I enjoyed it.

Are they still collecting oil or is it shut down due to the weather?

I would be a little nervous with 95L over me out in the open water. Even thought it isn't a TD, it is still more than your afternoon thunderstorm.

Quoting Tazmanian:



how many time do we need too see that lol

About as many times as you mention JFV taz.

anything else sport?

Quoting btwntx08:

oh no not again lol

Well, it is Hurricane Season and right now N MX or S TX look like the likely target. As always, stay tuned :o).

Which direction(s) has less favorable conditions for 96L to develop in and why?

Impressive cloud tops in the -80˚C range can be noted in the W/SW quadrant of 96L.

12z GFS hit middle tx