Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 851 - 901

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 — Blog Index

851. MiamiHurricanes09 6:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Dakster: How many points now? I counted 35. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

852. Patrap 6:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

853. stormpetrol 6:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
I think 96L is starting to consolidate now, I see what I call the COC around 17N/81.5W could be wrong though. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

855. xcool 6:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 041832 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1832 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.7N 83.5W 18.6N 85.3W 20.6N 86.9W 22.2N 88.4W BAMD 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.8W 19.0N 86.0W 20.0N 87.0W BAMM 16.7N 83.5W 18.2N 84.7W 19.6N 85.9W 21.0N 87.1W LBAR 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.7W 19.2N 86.1W 20.3N 87.6W SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 51KTS DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 44KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 23.7N 89.8W 25.7N 92.9W 26.7N 96.6W 27.5N 100.7W BAMD 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 90.4W 21.4N 93.3W 21.5N 96.7W BAMM 22.3N 88.3W 23.9N 91.2W 24.9N 95.0W 25.9N 99.4W LBAR 21.3N 89.1W 23.6N 92.2W 25.9N 95.1W 27.7N 98.6W SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS 73KTS DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 40KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 79.9W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

856. Patrap 6:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L is in Perfect SST's and well, the flue is open. 96L MSFC NASA viewer Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

857. Drakoen 6:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
BAMM suite further north Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

858. Tazmanian 6:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
i smell red at 8pm Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

859. Cavin Rawlins 6:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
I got 35 points for 96L and that excludes many things. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

860. Levi32 6:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
The steering currents won't remain this northerly for too long. The ridge is farther east than during Alex which puts Texas right in the risk area, but I doubt it will get farther east than Houston with the ridge centered over the SE US. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

861. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I counted 35. 35 it is here is list if anyone wants to add em up REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued. Surface Condition Points A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points 500 mb height Condition Points There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points 200 mb height Condition Points Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points Sea surface temperature Condition Points The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points Satellite data Condition Points The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points Miscellaneous Condition Points The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points ******************************************************** Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments:** 40413

862. Tazmanian 6:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: WHXX01 KWBC 041832 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1832 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.7N 83.5W 18.6N 85.3W 20.6N 86.9W 22.2N 88.4W BAMD 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.8W 19.0N 86.0W 20.0N 87.0W BAMM 16.7N 83.5W 18.2N 84.7W 19.6N 85.9W 21.0N 87.1W LBAR 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.7W 19.2N 86.1W 20.3N 87.6W SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 51KTS DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 44KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 23.7N 89.8W 25.7N 92.9W 26.7N 96.6W 27.5N 100.7W BAMD 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 90.4W 21.4N 93.3W 21.5N 96.7W BAMM 22.3N 88.3W 23.9N 91.2W 24.9N 95.0W 25.9N 99.4W LBAR 21.3N 89.1W 23.6N 92.2W 25.9N 95.1W 27.7N 98.6W SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS 73KTS DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 40KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 79.9W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ same track has Alex Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

864. Patrap 6:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: BAMM suite further north Noticed dat as well.. Hopefully thats not gonna be a trend, But we ALL must watch this one. Itza Bad seed. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

865. Dakster 6:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I counted 35. Alrighty... It is starting to look like it is coming together on the sat pictures. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926

867. CJC111 6:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Hurricanes101, post 778. In IE, you can go to tools --> Internet Options --> Security --> Restricted Sites and add the URL there. Keep in mind that you will need to remove it in the future should you want to go back to that page and see if they have stopped embedding content that either is too large or processor intensive. Hope that helps

868. MiamiHurricanes09 6:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
I'm beginning to some into agreement with the 18z BAMM, although I still think it should be more towards the right. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

869. Patrap 6:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Weather456: I got 35 points for 96L and that excludes many things. I tallied same.. The numbers denote the obvious Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

870. TexasHurricane 6:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The steering currents won't remain this northerly for too long. The ridge is farther east than during Alex which puts Texas right in the risk area, but I doubt it will get farther east than Houston with the ridge centered over the SE US. Houston is far enough...We are about 2 hours from there. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

871. mrsalagranny 6:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Gotcha.So we just have to wait and see if and when that takes place. Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 731

872. Tazmanian 6:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Alex part 2 on the way well there be a part 3 Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

873. Levi32 6:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
12z ECMWF may be a little too far south if the center of 96L consolidates farther north, but it illustrates nicely how the ridge staying strong over the SE U.S. protects the north gulf coast. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

874. MiamiHurricanes09 6:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Weather456: I got 35 points for 96L and that excludes many things. I was being conservative on the numbers too. If I count again I'll probably go around the 39 point threshold. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

875. Cavin Rawlins 6:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Weather, check my post 837 . It will refresh. Winds at 45 mph here now. visible imagery support the obs....there was low level clouds noted racing from southeast towards the eastern most cayman islands... Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

876. Tazmanian 6:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L is geting strong fast un like 93L at the same time Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

877. txjac 6:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
It's times like this that I wish I had a beard ...need something to stroke as I ponder ...and I'm a female Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563

878. xcool 6:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
models keep right soon Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

879. Dakster 6:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: However the CHS wx discussion does say how unusual the dry trough is----have never seen a statement quite like this: THE 12Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS...FEATURING PWATS ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH AND A K INDEX OF -25...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 115F. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE TODAY. Ummm. 115F? Ouch. I hope you have A/C. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926

880. Patrap 6:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Next Update My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays... Okay Folks.. Im out for Vacation, ..Dr Carvers on watch... Hurry Up Honey!! Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

881. Claudette1234 6:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I'm beginning to some into agreement with the 18z BAMM, although I still think it should be more towards the right. Me too also GFDL put track to North Texas. Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

882. MiamiHurricanes09 6:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Really nasty thunderstorms overhead here in Brickell. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

883. Tazmanian 6:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Okay Folks.. Im out for Vacation, ..Dr Carvers on watch... Hurry Up Honey!! pat i would re move that not worth geting a banned Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

884. Drakoen 6:48 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L, based on the models, won't spend nearly as much time over the Yucatan like Alex. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

885. weather42009 6:48 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
456 read your outlook, and by the looks of the tropics I guess you will be right again.

887. leo305 6:48 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
NHC put a floater over 95L Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

888. Levi32 6:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
12z HWRF did a much better job than the 12z GFDL, which was too far north. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

889. Tazmanian 6:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Dome C, Antarctica Unknown -115 °F its -115 be low 0 right now there i dont think i have evere seen it that cold there be for now back too 96L Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

890. MiamiHurricanes09 6:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L beginning to consolidate on the void of convection in the center of the system. Also, some very cold cloud tops continue to pop in the W/SW quadrant. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

891. Patrap 6:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: I didn't know about points for invests. Cool! We use a Table with 3 Judges with Cards.. Simon always Low balls Invests Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

892. TexasHurricane 6:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
So is everyone figuring TX for 96L or could it possibly go to LA? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

893. Tazmanian 6:50 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
dr m is on Vacation and look 96L takes off Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

895. MiamiHurricanes09 6:50 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: 96L, based on the models, won't spend nearly as much time over the Yucatan like Alex. If it does a track similar to what the BAMM/BAMS depicts it may not even weaken overland. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

896. msgambler 6:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
I think LA, but I don't know squat. Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

897. Patrap 6:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
95L/96L www.hurricanecity.com/closeup Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

898. kmanislander 6:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L organizing. Just saw a 43 mph wind gust here. Winds fluctuating between 30 and 38 mph. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

900. Dakster 6:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Hope 96L doesn't prove to be another "Ike" for Texas... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926

901. Tazmanian 6:52 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: what gfdl the lastest one kills it in 12 hrs lol i think it safe too say we can drop that one Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

Viewing: 851 - 901

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters