Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting extreme236:


Most likely your correct. But if it develops a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient organization before then, it could be classified.

Well it is possible that they could upgrade it before tomorrow, but they will need hard-core info such as a clear-cut ASCAT pass. Either way I'm very sure we will have TD #2 tomorrow after recon investigates.

Quoting leo305:


it clearly isn't dead on the visible, stop calling a system dead when it clearly is not, even if everything is against it, it still is there and its alive and spinning.

that dos not mean a dran thing 95L is a

NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE

Quoting Tazmanian:



95L is a non Tropic low

Looks tropical to me. I think we may get a little storm pop up there soon.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Between 12z and 18z coordinates 96L has been moving NW. If you extrapolate current motion, 96L will move through the Yucatan channel, clipping extreme western Cuba.

XTRP is not a model! :D

Some say the outer bands of Gustav were actually stronger then the cane. lol

Quoting yonzabam:
What's the most likely track for 96L? Over Yucatan, through the channel or over Cuba?

NE tip of Yucatan, probably won't affect the system much.

Quoting Weather456:
Gonna go out on a limb and say reccon will find TD 2.

Well, considering the fact that ASCAT and WindSat are BOTH missing 96L, I don't know whether to agree or disagree, but I'm thinking it'll be a close call, but probably TD 2.

Buoy at 25.9N and 89.6W....Link

Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.0 °F

Quoting Tazmanian:



that dos not mean a dran thing 95L is a

NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE

It can become a SUB TROPICAL LOW..

does not have to be purely tropical for it to develop..

Click FRONTS and MSLP

95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Quoting Weather456:
Gonna go out on a limb and say reccon will find TD 2.

yup me too

Ok these images from the LSU site are screwing up my internet really bad guys

use another site

Quoting Dakster:
Hope 96L doesn't prove to be another "Ike" for Texas...

Shhh....please don't even think like that

Quoting Patrap:
Click FRONTS and MSLP

95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

It aint rocket science today,..LOL

Quoting cg2916:


NE tip of Yucatan, probably won't affect the system much.



Well, considering the fact that ASCAT and WindSat are BOTH missing 96L, I don't know whether to agree or disagree, but I'm thinking it'll be a close call, but probably TD 2.

We dont need those two useless pieces of data when we have reccon.

Quoting btwntx08:
convection on 95L is gonna collaspe if not its doing that now

yup

Quoting leo305:


Who cares? It can become a SUB TROPICAL LOW..

does not have to be purely tropical for it to develop..

It is still attached to a front. Which means, it cannot develop into either a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Plus, it's soon heading for land.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Looks tropical to me. I think we may get a little storm pop up there soon.

It is non-tropical because it is still attached to a frontal boundary. Here's what the NHC says:

"SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE"

Quoting Dirtleg:
NW of Tampa, JUST off shore. New spin starting up

Been looking at that since this morning on the Bay News 9 Klystron regional radar.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ok these images from the LSU site are screwing up my internet really bad guys

use another site

They work just fine for me.

Quoting CoffinWood:


They work just fine for me.

me too now that I minused them lol

Is that a spin?

95L looks like Marco.

ok Hardcoreweather

95L is non-tropical and still attached to a front

It may look pretty, but it is not going to develop into anything


96L has a much much higher chance of being a TD

Quoting jlp09550:
Is that a spin?

It's been spinning. Nothing new there.

Quoting extreme236:


It is still attached to a front. Which means, it cannot develop into either a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Plus, it's soon heading for land.

therenot geting it aret they

Quoting jlp09550:
Is that a spin?

Yes, a very tight one at that.

Quoting Weather456:


Good question, it depends on how much heat 96L uses. if you notice 96L is trapped in fast steering flow so I suspect it would not remain in the NW Caribbean for long. I think there is enough heat to support a third system, though it will tend to be weaker.

Thank you 456. I am a new blogger but have always been very interested in the weather. Especially the Hurricance Season. I am here to learn as much as possible from you all. I see that you and StormW have Much Respect

I really want an SSD floater for 96L.

Someone need a Browser upgrade, that IE stuff is archaic

Tropical or subtropical doesn't make a difference... that is a developing low and looks to be developing rather quickly. Really tightens up nicely in the latest frames.

Quoting Patrap:
itsa Mojo rising..


Itsa Mojo rising

LOL I thought so. Just seemed interesting that everything starts firing all at once...

How many TCFA points does 96L have?

Quoting Patrap:


Someone need a Browser upgrade, that IE stuff is archaic

don't have IE, thank you for assuming though

It works fine now that I minused all the stuff from the LSU site lol

Quoting Patrap:
Gustav's first Band approaching in 08 NOLA

Patrap- WOW! That brings back memories.Facing Gustav was like getting back on the horse that kicked ya, at least for me, and when that first band came through, my stomach was flipping. It was SO dark, SO fast.
Anyway, happy 4th!

Yep. 96L building some of the deep stuff...95L notsomuch.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have

-50C cloud tops is not "deep"

96L looking Impressive but I think still at least 48hrs from a closed circulation unless something unusual happens.

METAR and Buoy info near 96L...

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Tropical or subtropical doesn't make a difference... that is a developing low and looks to be developing rather quickly. Really tightens up nicely in the latest frames.

Doesn't matter how well defined the low is, even if it has an eye popping out. 95L is attached to a frontal boundary and is non-tropical.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I really want an SSD floater for 96L.

Me too.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have

Umm.... 456 you answer! LOL

I can only remember one time a storm transitioned and became a tropical storm..it was right after I started blogging here, i think. It was off the coast of South Carolina, if memory serves...can anyone help me out on this one? Probably around 2007/08?

Quoting Hurricanes101:


don't have IE, thank you for assuming though

It works fine now that I minused all the stuff from the LSU site lol

Your welcome,

..anytime

Quoting cg2916:
How many TCFA points does 96L have?

35