A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting guygee:
Pressure drop was coincident with a windshift from E/ESE to S.
Would that really cause a pressure drop of nearly 6 millibars over a 2 hour period?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting tropicfreak:


Hope whatever is left of 96L (maybe bonnie) affects VA. We have been bone dry for 3-4 weeks with little or no rain to speak of. Not to mention we have suffered scorching heat, sometimes with temps in the triple digits, and more of that is expected for the rest of the week. We could use a good soaker. For God's sake send the rain that FL and TX don't need up to here in Richmond!!


Believe it or not Houston was in a drought...Was. lol. Pray yall get some rain soon!
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Quoting duajones78413:


Where is this info coming from?


just different models that are being posted on here and from what some people are suggesting...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
4397. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Regardless of whether it develops the east Caribbean wave sure has a big moisture surge with it. I wonder where the moisture will go.

I also wonder how common little low pressures like the one that went over 42056 are in strong waves that aren't detected when they don't move over buoys.


If there really had been a 1004mb low center in there, I guarantee you we would have known about it lol. It would have been painfully obvious on visible satellite imagery.
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4396. angiest
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 96L is heading for TX


But which part? Brownsville to Sabine Pass doesn't make preparing easy.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
4395. oakland
Quoting LADobeLady:


Nice to see you as well Cosmic, you know me when the season starts I come back to WU. I hate to even type this, but I went to fill up my sugar container this morning, and there were ants in the sugar...


NOOOOOOOOO...... LOL
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4393. guygee
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was an actual pressure reading. Last night 96L decoupled, the mid level circulation was what we were watching while the low level circulation wondered off. Consequently, the low level circulation went over the buoy causing the dramatic pressure drop.
Pressure drop was coincident with a windshift from E/ESE to S.
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Quoting Levi32:


The low-level circulation went near the buoy but never had a pressure of 1004mb. The instrument failed in some way during that particular pressure drop.
Probably did.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting CosmicEvents:
"Antsy".....LaDobeLady knows all about that...........
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Nice to see you posting LaDobeLady. Be well.


Nice to see you as well Cosmic, you know me when the season starts I come back to WU. I hate to even type this, but I went to fill up my sugar container this morning, and there were ants in the sugar...
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4390. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Drakoen gave an explanation earlier concerning that.


The low-level circulation went near the buoy but never had a pressure of 1004mb. The instrument failed in some way during that particular pressure drop.
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Quoting LADobeLady:


In Houma, LA
Sorry I took so long to respond. My computer went down. You are just southwest of me. Yep, you got and are getting the rain. I'm in Westwego just south of N.O.(where I'm orginally from). Houma is great. Years ago my dad used to coach at Terrebonne High. Some of my neighbors here in Westwego, most of whom are gone now, were from that area and still spoke french. They were always asking/looking for other french speakers. I'm sorry I couldn't. My grandparents were the last in my family to do so.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, this is about the time you would start preparing but we still don't know what it is going to do and go for sure yet.....ughhhh


Yep just love it. It was bad when we knew what was coming. This year Mother Nature throwing n a new twist to make us crazy.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


That what I keep seeing and hearing....


Where is this info coming from?
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Interesting to note that if Bonnie actually forms from this, and traverses over the same general area, that it is a unique "early season" validation for Dr. Klotzenbach's paper last year on storm "clusters". However, he was focusing on activity during the peak of seasons as to clusters and this early seaosn "back to back" does not bode well for the real cluster action coming during the peak of the season and perhaps also a valiation of the very ripe conditions comning into June. My point is that we could see a few more storms in July if sheer remains low from Africa to the Lesser Antilles.
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Hey there everybody. Well, I would like to start blogging on here, but I can't seem to get my blog to start working where I can put an entry in there, no matter what I try! Oh, well!
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Quoting Levi32:
96L's center was never under 1004mb. That reading was clearly a fluke.
Drakoen gave an explanation earlier concerning that.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
look at Alex's wake

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Quoting Chicklit:
Wow. Dr. Masters goes on vacation and the blog goes wild. Looks like the wave east of the windwards is getting ripped apart.

shortwaveloop

Interesting setup, shearwise.
Yup. The TUTT is having a major role in pretty much "killing" the tropical wave. Here's the thing though, once the tropical wave reaches the Caribbean there will be very favorable conditions and I wouldn't be surprised to see this area really develop into something much stronger than 96L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
4380. Levi32
96L's center was never under 1004mb. That reading was clearly a fluke.
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Wow. Dr. Masters goes on vacation and the blog goes wild. Looks like the wave east of the windwards is getting ripped apart.

shortwaveloop

Interesting setup shearwise in the WestCarib.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


What amazes me is the models have such agreement on 96L(at least this model run) but were all over the place for Alex. If this projected track holds true it looks like us here in the Houston area are in for some more crazy weather!

Even if it stays a wave it will be a huge rainmaker, I think.

Well off to work, it was nice being here for 5 minutes in the past 3 days lol.
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4377. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting winter123:

NVM got it. I thought the COC (weak now but thats obviously where its trying to form based on convection and outflow) was in the carribean though??



What amazes me is the models have such agreement on 96L(at least this model run) but were all over the place for Alex. If this projected track holds true it looks like us here in the Houston area are in for some more crazy weather!
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Yes, I get "antsy" sometimes because this is the area (around Yucatan) that I like to start "getting ready" if need be...but hope that's not needed. Thanks!
"Antsy".....LaDobeLady knows all about that...........
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Nice to see you posting LaDobeLady. Be well.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Was the pressure drop at 42056 last night real or instrument error?

Anyone know yet?
It was an actual pressure reading. Last night 96L decoupled, the mid level circulation was what we were watching while the low level circulation wondered off. Consequently, the low level circulation went over the buoy causing the dramatic pressure drop.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
From Baltimore Sun.The heat wave in the east could be a record breaker.The only escape is from the heat is a cooling center or the beaches/pools.In ocean city maryland there are more life guards on duty than usual due to the amount of people in the water.One visiter from the beach said "I've never seen like this".This is only the beginning of the heat wave hear in baltimore said meteorologist Sue Palker.Expect tempetures to stay in the mid-upper 90's at least until sunday or tuesday of next week.Not only is the heat affecting baltimore,but other places as well,such as washington d.c,and philadelphia,and new york.Make sure if you have to go outside stay hydrated.Stay away from caffeine,and limit your activities.


Same here, ridiculously hot here. 100s are expected until the weekend with what? NO RAIN!!
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Quoting extreme236:
Nonetheless, 95L does look better organized, but it's just out of real estate.
Best it's looked yet...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
4371. guygee
I accept any eyeball challenge
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Not trying to turn this into a prediction thread but many of you are asking for me to pick a location for landfall along with intensity so here goes . Please don't get upset if I pick your location. I am going with landfall Thursday at 1pm in Cameron,LA with 65 mph winds.
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thats the worst part. If it bombs in the GOM whoever gets it will have to sit and ride it out. If the timeline of the models play out.


yeah, this is about the time you would start preparing but we still don't know what it is going to do and go for sure yet.....ughhhh
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
4367. Patrap
I have that inbound feeder heading toward me here uptown.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 96L is heading for TX


That what I keep seeing and hearing....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010


.MARINE...COMPLEX MARINE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY. THE MODELS ARE ALL
SHOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA TRACKING
NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE WAVE. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE TOO FAST/STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE NAM A LITTLE
TOO FAR NORTH. GENERALLY OPTED FOR A WEAKER/SOUTHERN SOLUTION THAN
THE NAM AND THIS HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE NEW 05/12Z EURO. AS A
RESULT...WILL SHOW WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL STARTING ON
TUESDAY AND BUILDING TO NEAR OR TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO SUMMERTIME
NORMALS LATE IN THE WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE WAVE
MANAGES TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE MARINE
FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE TRENDED UPWARD. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE WAVE AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GENESIS
IN THE MODEL FIELDS...FEEL A WEAKER APPROACH IS BEST AT THIS TIME.
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AVN satellite imagery shows waning of convection as the diurnal minimum approaches.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's likely that the bulk of organization and development will take place in the Gulf of Mexico.


Hope whatever is left of 96L (maybe bonnie) affects VA. We have been bone dry for 3-4 weeks with little or no rain to speak of. Not to mention we have suffered scorching heat, sometimes with temps in the triple digits, and more of that is expected for the rest of the week. We could use a good soaker. For God's sake send the rain that FL and TX don't need up to here in Richmond!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's likely that the bulk of organization and development will take place in the Gulf of Mexico.


Thats the worst part. If it bombs in the GOM whoever gets it will have to sit and ride it out. If the timeline of the models play out.
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Quoting Patrap:
5 years ago tonight



Now we're into the realm of Omen Climatology.
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looks like 96L is heading for TX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
4358. Patrap
Quoting LADobeLady:


More like BPville now down by Coco marina


Lil Houston I hear..it be
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Patrap:




Looks like it could be a good size storm if it gets its act together....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting winter123:


They don't even look much different! Why is 95L not even a TD then?


Cindy wasn't upgraded until well after the fact, we all knew she was more than a TS because we were in it.

Only the shadow knows the reasoning behind the NHC.
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Quoting angiest:


If Ike had followed the forecast track a 20-30 foot surge would have gone up the Houston Ship Channel instead of just off to the north and east as happened. Not to mention putting the core of Houston in the eastern eyewall. And yet much of Houston was a tremendous mess for some weeks after getting hit by the "weak" side of the storm.

So we still haven't had our own worst case.


I went through Ike here in Pearland, and the southern half of the storm was worse than the northern half, windwise! And no we have not had our own worse case. And that is ok!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's likely that the bulk of organization and development will take place in the Gulf of Mexico.



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
Quoting Patrap:


My fav spot in Se La..Cocodrie and Dulac.
by Far.

Heaven


More like BPville now down by Coco marina
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4352. Patrap






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Bordonaro:

That is 96L's problem. It still is an open wave, no closed center of circulation is apparent!

The lower pressures in that area, are due to high SST & high TCHP keeps the system popping off large masses of heavy convection, that waxes & wanes. Conditions are favorable for slow development, of course, we all have to wait.
Yes, I get "antsy" sometimes because this is the area (around Yucatan) that I like to start "getting ready" if need be...but hope that's not needed. Thanks!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.