Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

95L Doesn't have to develop into anything more than it is to cause some major problems for the Oil clean up and recovery. Morgan City is ground zero for ships going in and out to the Horizon site. It is of great interest to those of us on the Gulf Coast so I appreciate those of you that are still posting updates on it despite the cries of "it's dead". It is still very much relevant to we Gulf Coasters.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have

95L is non-tropical. Anyways I don't see any "deep" convection on satellite imagery.

Anyone got ASCAT winds for 96L?

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have

Hmm, should I listen to you, or the NHC?

Guess who wins?

Quoting muddertracker:
I can only remember one time a storm transitioned and became a tropical storm..it was right after I started blogging here, i think. It was off the coast of South Carolina, if memory serves...can anyone help me out on this one? Probably around 2007/08?

Gabrielle. Overcame dry air.

mhm.. It doesn't look connected to anything on visible satellite.. and besides even if it was, the trough *(front)* is falling apart.. and creating lots of little swirls along what was the boundary..

if it had no chance, the NHC wouldn't have given it a 10% possibilty of becoming a TC.

Quoting cg2916:
How many TCFA points does 96L have?

I counted 35.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
95L is non-tropical. Anyways I don't see any "deep" convection on satellite imagery.

Yup.

96 has a lot more to develop but we could still have a TD coming out party for both tonight. You are probably right on the recon for tomorrow but I see a TS by then. And BP going wth. It's not nice to play with mother nature.

Quoting muddertracker:
I can only remember one time a storm transitioned and became a tropical storm..it was right after I started blogging here, i think. It was off the coast of South Carolina, if memory serves...can anyone help me out on this one? Probably around 2007/08?

I am thinking Gabrielle and it took days for her to transition

Quoting Weather456:
To add, upper lows especially TUTT cells are maintained by subsidence. We are in a state of upward motion.

thank you great answer.

Quoting jlp09550:
Is that a spin?

Yeah it is but in that satellite clip the frontal boundary it is attached to is very clear.

Forgive me if this is a stupid question....
Should most of the storms this year hit the gulf states and miss South Florida? It seems a lot of storms are headed for TX...

Quoting Weather456:


35

That warrants a possible TCFA.

can we put 95L too rest now and move on

Quoting Kristina40:
95L Doesn't have to develop into anything more than it is to cause some major problems for the Oil clean up and recovery. Morgan City is ground zero for ships going in and out to the Horizon site. It is of great interest to those of us on the Gulf Coast so I appreciate those of you that are still posting updates on it despite the cries of "it's dead". It is still very much relevant to we Gulf Coasters.

I gave you a "+" for the best post of the day!

95L, is literally the second coming of Marco

And the LSU Site is the Only one with the Wunderground tropical Link on a College site ..too

Check the "Tropical Weather" Link on the WAVCIS Page.

Quoting connie1976:
Forgive me if this is a stupid question....
Should most of the storms this year hit the gulf states andmiss South Florida? It seems a lot of storms are headed for TX...

I wish. This is just the type of set-up we are in. Right now with all the heat is centered is in the Caribbean, thus most activity develops there.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone got ASCAT winds for 96L?

Both ASCAT and Windsat missed it.

Quoting MrstormX:
95L, is literally the second coming of Marco

except Marco was tropical and not attached to a front lol

Quoting cg2916:


That warrants a possible TCFA.

If that's what Navy counted as well, they can issue one at any time. NHC is still at orange but Navy is independent with its TCFA's. Plus, they issued a TCFA for pre-Alex (93L) when NHC still had it at orange. So I think it's possible we'll get one tonight.

Quoting leo305:
mhm.. It doesn't look connected to anything on visible satellite.. and besides even if it was, the trough *(front)* is falling apart.. and creating lots of little swirls along what was the boundary..

if it had no chance, the NHC wouldn't have given it a 10% possibilty of becoming a TC.

%10 ch is vary low

Sure are some decent winds out there...nothing showing a west winds, but no obs in the right places.


(clock for full size)

Quoting MrstormX:
95L, is literally the second coming of Marco

96L is literally the second coming of Alex.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I counted 35.

We need 36 for TCFA correct?

Quoting IKE:


I gave you a "+" for the best post of the day!

Thanks Ike, some people seem a bit myopic about this.

Quoting Kristina40:
95L Doesn't have to develop into anything more than it is to cause some major problems for the Oil clean up and recovery. Morgan City is ground zero for ships going in and out to the Horizon site. It is of great interest to those of us on the Gulf Coast so I appreciate those of you that are still posting updates on it despite the cries of "it's dead". It is still very much relevant to we Gulf Coasters.

I hear you, we feel the same. Nobody on here can predict where it's gonna go or what it's gonna do for sure. We're just offering our opinion here and everyone has their own. But trust me, were on your side nobody wants a major system coming onboard especially with this Oil Disaster.

Gabrielle..yup...thanks guys!

Quoting Hurricanes101:


except Marco was tropical and not attached to a front lol

thats too bad lol oh well

That is one large wave that just exited the west African Coast...

Quoting Hurricanes101:


except Marco was tropical and not attached to a front lol

So it's the literal second coming except without the literal lol.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


We need 36 for TCFA correct?

35-38 means possible TCFA, 39 is mandatory TCFA.

Quoting connie1976:
Forgive me if this is a stupid question....
Should most of the storms this year hit the gulf states and miss South Florida? It seems a lot of storms are headed for TX...

Connie don't worry when/if anything comes close to south florida channel wsvn, will be all over like flies on you know what, stick with everyone on here & you will be informed in timely manner of impending ts.canes coming to a city near you

Quoting Weather456:
96L is not only consolidating its convection but getting ready to spin.

I lurked for awhile this morning then come back in the afternoon to find this! Man, that thing is really taking off. We could have a TS in no time if it doesn't slow down.

Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Keeper, I'm sorry for earlier today.

am dont think keeper is on right now

Quoting CybrTeddy:


We need 36 for TCFA correct?

If it's 35-38 they may issue one if they feel it's needed. If it's at 39 it should be issued no matter what.

Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Keeper, I'm sorry for earlier today.

You've already been reported :) too late now

Hm.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L is literally the second coming of Alex.

lol lol

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That is one large wave that just exited the west African Coast...

Woah, one at a time... until August that is.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L is literally the second coming of Alex.

Exactly!

Hurricane Cindy July 5-6 2005




95L

Quoting CybrTeddy:


We need 36 for TCFA correct?

35-38 if dvorak numbers warrant (obviously that is not the case with 96L). Once numbers reach 39 it is mandatory that a TCFA is issued. As a side note, remember that TCFA's are issued only during weekdays and never on weekends.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I really want an SSD floater for 96L.

For now, you could use this: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404

Quoting jlp09550:
Hm.

Starting to consolidate, trying to get that classic TD comma shape.

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That is one large wave that just exited the west African Coast...

Is it just you and I that thinks that way- cause Ive been on here for an hour talking about that wave but noone is even mentioning it at all.