Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010 +2
Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...
Categories: Hurricane
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1451. StadiumEffect 9:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:
96L has yet to develop a surface circulation. Surface observations do support a position further east and north of the 18z initialization. I would put the system near 17.4N 81.9W based on surface observations.
Drak, what is your take on the wave near the Lesser Antilles?
1452. Hurricanes101 9:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
It appears 95L's development is being held hostage by NHC's interpretations of climatology?


No it is being held hostage by the fact that it is still attached to the front, has unfavorable conditions around it and has very little time before it makes landfall to do anything

not climatology; meteorology :)
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902
1453. fldude99 9:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Yous guys can watch 95, 96 or whatever else..I'm gonna go watch the ribs & brats on the grill
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 560
1454. Kristina40 9:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting btwntx08:
but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up.

tellin us that according to that it is


That is not English. And the post was certainly no threat.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
1455. Hardcoreweather2010 9:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Got the chase gear loaded up and ready for 95L :) Look at that new burst of convection right over the center
Link
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1456. Tazmanian 9:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting fldude99:
Yous guys can watch 95, 96 or whatever else..I'm gonna go watch the ribs & brats on the grill



send me some may way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111311
1458. Tazmanian 9:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
there is a lot of bickering going on about 95L may be we would this move on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111311
1459. Progster 9:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...in fact, I got into a "lengthy" discussion with Beven on it. But he told me, it was too frontal in nature. Strange.


There are more things under heaven and earth than are dreamt of in our philosophy - (with apologies to Hamlet :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 412
1461. kmanislander 9:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Power was off for about 2 hours up here and just came back on.


I know. Sorry about that, a circuit was out. Probably something to do with the weather conditions today.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
1462. wunderkidcayman 9:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
you guys are saying 81.9W I am seeing it at 17.0N 81.2W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5381
1463. Hhunter 9:18 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
yep kamen i just checked some other weather stations all the wind is coming south.southeast..can't find any west or north or east winds yet. for 96l
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2886
1464. Kristina40 9:18 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting btwntx08:

dont get the point do u he said everyone to shutup which is wrong in here

Uhm no, he said he was tired of people telling others that were discussing 95L to shut up. Tas has been wasting bandwitdth for the past two hours telling others what they should and should not discuss. I just solved the problem by putting him on ignore as it was obvious he is not going to stop making inane posts anytime soon.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
1465. StormGoddess 9:18 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Progster:


There are more things under heaven and earth than are dreamt of in our philosophy - (with apologies to Hamlet :)

Indeed. :)
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569
1467. Stormchaser2007 9:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243
1469. Greyelf 9:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
To RobertM320 - I just wanted to post to let you know that someone here does understand what you're trying to have a discussion about...you're not expecting a tropical system to develop into a cat 5 hurricane. You just want to know what kind of heavy weather might be coming your way and how heavy it may be. I'm not sure why Taz is so incensed and wanting bans just because he thinks it's a waste of time to discuss 95L. I also have no clue what Btwntx08 thinks constitutes a "threat" in any post you've made.

At the very least, I just wanted to let you know that at least someone gets what you're trying to discuss.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
1470. sflawavedude 9:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
I swear people here poof and report others for stupid reasons! :( 96l looks good and 95l could do anythnig before landfall. Watch it!
Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
1472. blsealevel 9:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
I see everyone point on 95L yes it's still attached to the stalled front I also see 1399's
point on this matter as I also will be drasticly affected by this to.
Best advice check NHC site for offical info on these storms and storm track's.
We all follow this site and this blog for any info we can get but I do not follow this site when my family and friends live's may depend on it. just my opinon thanks. DC
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916
1474. Hhunter 9:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
just got 41 knot wind gust however
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1475. Kristina40 9:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting btwntx08:
95L doesnt have deep convection just weak convection and NOTHING is gonna form out of this period....how many thimes do we have to say this its ATTACHED TO A FRONT NO DEVELOPMENT PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!


Time for you to join your friend, signal to noise is out of control
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
1476. Patrap 9:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Greyelf:
To RobertM320 - I just wanted to post to let you know that someone here does understand what you're trying to have a discussion about...you're not expecting a tropical system to develop into a cat 5 hurricane. You just want to know what kind of heavy weather might be coming your way and how heavy it may be. I'm not sure why Taz is so incensed and wanting bans just because he thinks it's a waste of time to discuss 95L. I also have no clue what Btwntx08 thinks constitutes a "threat" in any post you've made.

At the very least, I just wanted to let you know that at least someone gets what you're trying to discuss.


Indeed, and I for one concur.

All views within Logic and reason are always welcome.

The monomania iz ridiculous.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1477. IKE 9:21 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
1468....I'll take Accuweather's take over yours. You are like 99% of the rest of us...amateur bloggers.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
1478. kmanislander 9:21 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Hey KMan, is 96L a Caymen Islands threater for you and StormWatcher, up there?


Is that you JFV ?. Man you have more lives than a black cat.

To answer your question, it does not appear that 96L will be a threat to us other than the rain and high winds we are currently receiving from it.
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1480. louisianaboy444 9:21 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Link

My blog: Tropical Atlantic Awakens
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1215
1481. IKE 9:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
1471...bye.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
1482. Hardcoreweather2010 9:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
The bottom line is this Technically qualifies as a TD. Let's wait and see what the NHC does this evening. Time for some BBQ :) Happy 4th USA and Weatherunderground bloggers
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1483. Tazmanian 9:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


Is that you JFV ?. Man you have more lives than a black cat.

To answer your question, it does not appear that 96L will be a threat to us other than the rain and high winds we are currently receiving from it.



yes its him this go too his blog and look up and see what it says at the end
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111311
1485. RobertM320 9:23 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Kristina40:

Uhm no, he said he was tired of people telling others that were discussing 95L to shut up. Tas has been wasting bandwitdth for the past two hours telling others what they should and should not discuss. I just solved the problem by putting him on ignore as it was obvious he is not going to stop making inane posts anytime soon.


Thank you, Kristina
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
1486. Hurricanes101 9:23 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
The bottom line is this Technically qualifies as a TD. Let's wait and see what the NHC does this evening. Time for some BBQ :) Happy 4th USA and Weatherunderground bloggers


How does it qualify as a TD when it is still attached to the front?

That is our only issue here, you can talk about 95L all you want, but you seem to be ignoring the obvious facts that this is still attached to the front, has too much dry air around it and is running out of time
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902
1490. RobertM320 9:24 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Greyelf:
To RobertM320 - I just wanted to post to let you know that someone here does understand what you're trying to have a discussion about...you're not expecting a tropical system to develop into a cat 5 hurricane. You just want to know what kind of heavy weather might be coming your way and how heavy it may be. I'm not sure why Taz is so incensed and wanting bans just because he thinks it's a waste of time to discuss 95L. I also have no clue what Btwntx08 thinks constitutes a "threat" in any post you've made.

At the very least, I just wanted to let you know that at least someone gets what you're trying to discuss.


thanks
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
1492. msgambler 9:25 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Pat, Ike What is going on in here this evening? I come in to check on 95 & 96 and find more arguing. Can't anyone discuss any storm they wish to discuss on a weather blog?
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
1493. bappit 9:25 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
A Blind duck in Bangkok can see the closed Low spinning on the RGB Loop easily.

95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Click FRONTS and MSLP for more spurious info as well.

And Maybe take a gander at the radar.

That always helps in a, er,.."Synopsis"


Hey something's spinning around a bit there, eh?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4353
1494. tropicaltank 9:25 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
I think 96L may be a TD tonight.
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1495. Patrap 9:26 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
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1496. Hurricanes101 9:26 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902
1497. Patrap 9:26 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, Ike What is going on in here this evening? I come in to check on 95 & 96 and find more arguing. Can't anyone discuss any storm they wish to discuss on a weather blog?



Im in and out with Baby Back ribs and I see the same.

Its down right embarrassing.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1498. BiloxiIsle 9:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting btwntx08:

u been reported thats a threat to other bloggers here
Quoting btwntx08:

u been reported thats a threat to other bloggers here

Where was the threat? I'm sorry, but reporting people because they are concern about a system is rather petty, don't you think?
Member Since: May 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
1499. Tazmanian 9:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Hurricanes101:
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool




then whats talk about 96L and the wave be hid
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111311
1500. HurricaneSwirl 9:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Tazmanian:



will you 2 this stop with the bickering. and keep me out of it thank you or i will start re porting you


You are reporting people for no reason. Please at least try to see the other side. While I'm not in LA, I can. People can talk about 95L if they want.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1501. IKE 9:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Hurricanes101:
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool



Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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