Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1501. IKE 9:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1503. bappit 9:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: If this wasn't still attached to the front its probable this would be TD2. I thought about making a post about the rules for Invest Bingo earlier. Maybe I should have. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4373

1504. itrackstorms 9:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
In the immortal words of Rodney King... Enough bickering already. 95L is a small system that will be of interest to residents along a very small part of the Gulf coast. By all means, keep an eye on it. Whatever happens, it is a short term story, tropically speaking. 96L is probably the bigger threat for more people, so some are putting more emphasis on that. Lets save the debate about what/when something should/shouldn't be classified as a tropical system when we don't have FOUR AREAS OF INTEREST TO TALK ABOUT! Sorry, got a little carried away there. Now, in the immortal words of Casey Kasem... on with the countdown! Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152

1505. Hurricanes101 9:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: then whats talk about 96L and the wave be hid see there you go again, we can talk about 95L as well Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1506. Patrap 9:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Im out..flight Houston,, BigDuke NOLA 7 Out. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111463

1507. Tazmanian 9:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool and for a fac am trying too end this i been mosty out of this Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1508. Kristina40 9:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Ignore works great folks. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

1509. IKE 9:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting msgambler: Pat, Ike What is going on in here this evening? I come in to check on 95 & 96 and find more arguing. Can't anyone discuss any storm they wish to discuss on a weather blog? Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests" Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1510. Patrap 9:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved. Set it,,and forget it!! Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111463

1511. stormwatcherCI 9:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting ThePlywoodState: No, K, I'm not him, lol! anyways, tahnks for your reply. Posted by: ThePlywoodState, 5:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2010 A Proposal To make Hurricane Evacuations Obligatory by the Law Prepared for Dr. Benjamin Lauren Hurricane Historian, Ph.D University of Miami By Janiel Francisco Vargas Navas Tropical Meteorology, Grad. Student Florida International University Funny, I thought it wasn't you. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1512. Tazmanian 9:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: see there you go again, we can talk about 95L as well ok will talk about 95L too Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1513. HurricaneSwirl 9:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests" LOL Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1514. Patrap 9:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests" Irony ALWAYS wins.. Okay,.. Back to da ribs and M-80's Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111463

1515. HurricaneSwirl 9:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: 1475,1469 i know what a threat is also no thanks to post 1490 LOL, okay, what threat did he make to you? What did he say he was gonna do to you? Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1516. BDAwx 9:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: as u can see its attached with the front still so nothing is coming out of it eventhough it looks nice like wont stay like that much longer Quoting btwntx08: but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up. tellin us that according to that it is Quoting btwntx08: ike they said wont either so were both right so there itsnt no take at all I'm sorry, is English your first language? I mean - I find it difficult to understand what you are saying and clearly you have difficulties understanding what others are saying. Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

1517. Dirtleg 9:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting ThePlywoodState: No, K, I'm not him, lol! anyways, tahnks for your reply. You can't say you're NOT him, and clearly have his name on YOUR blog. And noone really cares about your blog..reposting that is called spamming. Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1518. IKE 9:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Set it,,and forget it!! It is forgotten. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1519. Tazmanian 9:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests" thats ture IKE Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1522. msgambler 9:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Ok have a good night guys.....I'm out till the ribs are in the belly Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

1523. MiamiHurricanes09 9:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool To set the record I never told anyone to or not to talk about 95L. Actually, anyone can talk about whatever they please as long as it is on topic and not on something irrevelant. Now, please, enough of the constant bickering and back to what this blog is for. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1524. Tazmanian 9:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: im sorry but to me it was period maybe not to u also there is no reason that ike put me on his list tell him im sry about lets get back on 96L and me Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1525. HurricaneSwirl 9:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting ThePlywoodState: Taz, STOP IT, geeze, you are really begining to brother a lot of folks on here, -_-. Dude, it's over, Taz gets it now. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1526. bigdoge3 9:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Who is JFV or what is it? I notice everyone keeps saying that a lot in this blog?

1527. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Im in and out with Baby Back ribs and I see the same. Its down right embarrassing. there makin a fool of themselves Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40528

1528. kmanislander 9:32 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Posted by: ThePlywoodState, 5:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2010 A Proposal To make Hurricane Evacuations Obligatory by the Law Prepared for Dr. Benjamin Lauren Hurricane Historian, Ph.D University of Miami By Janiel Francisco Vargas Navas Tropical Meteorology, Grad. Student Florida International University Funny, I thought it wasn't you. Yeah, I saw that when I went there. Didn't have to though, the syntax was a dead giveaway LOL Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1529. Tazmanian 9:32 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
i wish they re that : Quote Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1530. MiamiHurricanes09 9:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved. Thank you. If only everyone did that. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1531. AstroHurricane001 9:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
95L is getting its act together. In the past few hours, it has competely separated from the front, and has developed a well-defined circulation. It looks like a subtropical storm, a smaller version of Edouard in 2008. Models expect the storm to make landfall in Louisiana, then loop back eastward, possibly into the Gulf Stream. 96L is strengthening as well. Convergence is occurring on satellite imagery, and the newly developed circulation is especially apparent on the storm's south and west sides. NHC recon should investigate both systems very soon. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1532. jpritch 9:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 291

1533. AllyBama 9:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Don't make me bring my rubber flyswatter in here to whack a few butts!....play nice guys - lol Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

1534. midgulfmom 9:34 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
WOW..tough crowd today...lots to watch that's interesting. Maybe instead of chillin'out some of us should be grillin' out. Happy 4th all! Check back later... Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

1535. kmanislander 9:34 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
I think I'll come back later. Trying to navigate through this blog now is like driving a road filled with pot holes. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1537. Tazmanian 9:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting BreadandCircuses: I gotta come out of a %#@&$% up-tempo record and talk about somebody's dead %#@&$% dog!! i would we move that if i where you Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1538. Dirtleg 9:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
bigdoge3....read your email for the latest update Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1539. Tazmanian 9:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
IKE mail Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1541. BahaHurican 9:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: Guys why are we focused so much on 95L when its in an unfavorable environment. Why aren't we paying any attention to 96L? It poses the greatest threat right now. So the reality is, 95L won't develop. 96L is better organized, and is continuing to organize as well. So why'd I have to come back in here to read all this unnecessary bickering? Someone said last month some time that pple in here need to learn to multi-task, because we SHO-NUFF won't be having one system at a time at the height of this season.... we need to get used to talking about 3 or 4 systems at a time, instead of demanding that only one be the main point of discussion. And look at the TOPIC of today's discussion, which says that both invests are worth talking about.... let's stop wasting our energies rowing about which one is more important, because that's going to differ depending on where the system is in relation to you. And let's be more tolerant of other pple's interests, because by definition pple in different locations are going to have different priorities. As a case in point, I'm still much more interested in a) the stalled out front near me and b) the Twave coming up against the eastern Antilles, simply because they are the ones most likely to impact me personally. Should I be insisting that nobody talk about 95L or 96L? After all, they're only going to hit the GoM! We need to have lots of different voices talking about the different aspects of the wx situation that make up the overall picture. Let's work together, agree to disagree where necessary, and get the job done. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

1542. wunderkidcayman 9:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
oh yeah guys pressures are falling pretty good now just a while ago pressure was 1013.2 Mb now 1011.9 and dropping at airport in G.T. in Grand Cayman Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5421

1543. Tazmanian 9:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: sry all i was mad at something and got me ticked off sry about everything im just not me this past hr so ike uningore me and taz this thing is over...this stuff happens when i get pissed so sorry all i think you sould e mail that too him Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1544. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting BreadandCircuses: em> soon to be replaced with empty space Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40528

1546. louisianaboy444 9:39 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Time for you to join your friend, signal to noise is out of control This is why i have him on ignore! Gah lol Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

1547. wxvoyeur 9:39 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001: 95L is getting its act together. In the past few hours, it has competely separated from the front, and has developed a well-defined circulation. It looks like a subtropical storm, a smaller version of Edouard in 2008. Models expect the storm to make landfall in Louisiana, then loop back eastward, possibly into the Gulf Stream. 96L is strengthening as well. Convergence is occurring on satellite imagery, and the newly developed circulation is especially apparent on the storm's south and west sides. NHC recon should investigate both systems very soon. Wow, looks like 96L will be a TS tomorrow! Member Since: June 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

1548. weatherwart 9:39 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
What the...? I think I'll go get Chinese take-out and come back later. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

1549. Tazmanian 9:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting weatherwart: What the...? I think I'll go get Chinese take-out and come back later. good point i may go fix me up a little pizza be good kids Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

1551. MrstormX 9:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Looks like its time for the serious people on here to go to the alternate site, until the nonsense blows over. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

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