Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1601. Patrap 10:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Bada Bing from 18Z beell Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1602. AstroHurricane001 10:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap: ONE TO BOOKMARK ALL NOAA FLOATERS 95L/96L Use them Together, use them in Peace That looks like a hot tower developing north of 95L's circulation! Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1603. HurricaneSwirl 10:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: poll time 8pm do you think the nhc will up 96L too red A %60 B %70 C %80 the next wave sould be yellow so am going too do a poll on this has well A %10 B %20 C %30 1st one D - other - 40% 2nd B - 20% Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1605. Patrap 10:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L Rainbow Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1606. RobertM320 10:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Agreed. If pple weren't constantly calling his name, wishing he was here, insisting that every new blogger was him, and quoting him then telling him to shut up, I wouldn't even remember who the guy was. I swear pple really like him but don't want to admit it. Personally I don't care, and I wish other bloggers would stop investing so much energy in personalities. Then we could get back really decent tropical bloggers like nash28 and so on..... I have to agree...the last couple of times he really hasn't been bad, until people started going after him. This season's going to be too crazy for there to be this much wasted effort. If someone came in here for real information at a critical point, they'd leave with no information and that would be a sad thing. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

1607. muddertracker 10:06 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Taz...I'll go with 60 and 10. Oh, btw, thanks you for the advice on taking one of my posts down last week...probably a good idea that you did : ) Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2167

1608. Patrap 10:06 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1609. Bordonaro 10:06 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: poll time 8pm do you think the nhc will up 96L too red A %60 B %70 C %80 the next wave sould be yellow so am going too do a poll on this has well A %10 B %20 C %30 A) 96L will be red 60% A) Next wave yellow 10% Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1610. Tazmanian 10:07 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting muddertracker: Taz...I'll go with 60 and 10. Oh, btw, thanks you for the advice on taking one of my posts down last week...probably a good idea that you did : ) ok Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615

1611. itrackstorms 10:07 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap: 96L Rainbow Pat - I've grown to appreciate your posting of maps and models and such. I posted a few things thinking you stepped away. I'll let you take over. Your efforts are much appreciated Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152

1612. AstroHurricane001 10:07 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: I have a feeling NHC is, also, which is why they haven't taken the yellow off it. Good thing it's as tiny as it is..... That's the problem. Once the front leaves it alone the storm can intensify rapidly because it's so small. Remember Cyclone Tracy? Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1613. MrsOsa 10:07 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
MrStormx you have mail Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84

1614. Tazmanian 10:07 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: A) 96L will be red 60% A) Next wave yellow 10% ok Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615

1615. beell 10:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Bada Bing from 18Z beell Still connected on that one-but maybe close to breaking free. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 126 Comments: 13068

1616. medicroc 10:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap: 96L Rainbow Outflow really impressive Member Since: September 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

1617. Patrap 10:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting itrackstorms: Pat - I've grown to appreciate your posting of maps and models and such. I posted a few things thinking you stepped away. I'll let you take over. Your efforts are much appreciated Post away.. The mo da betta I say. ..beats the heck outta Polls and 3 initial posts. Plus..Im enjoying a adult beverage too. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1618. Claudette1234 10:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
GFS 18Z track the system 96L to Lousiana Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

1619. AstroHurricane001 10:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting reedzone: Models are not right in line with the steering pattern. Looking at the steering maps, 96L will likely go through the Yucatan Channel and head into the GOM, staying away from the BOC. I don't see it hitting anywhere south of the borderline of Texas/Mexico. Models should continue shifting to the right. Not saying it's heading to LA, just not Mexico, not likely by looking at the steering pattern. It favors a NW movement for some time. That track could allow the storm to track over warm waters, and bring in more warm water behind it. Models currently show a TS, but it will likely be stronger, and ominously the forecasts for Alex also depicted a TS early on. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1620. Hardcoreweather2010 10:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
95L will be what at 8pm 1) Yellow 2) Orange 3) Red 4) TD 5) Bonnie I will say 3 RED Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

1621. HurricaneSwirl 10:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Greyelf: Lol...I apparently didn't get the memo on what the alternate blog is. (Dangit.) Lol me too haha. Eventually all of the experts are gonna get fed up and move out, all of the trolls are gonna bicker here, and all of the people who aren't experts, but are serious about this stuff, like us, are gonna be left in the wind. :/ Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1622. Patrap 10:10 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting beell: Still connected on that one-but maybe close to breaking free. Me tinks ya right.. ..very interesting watching it . Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1623. reedzone 10:10 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Claudette1234: GFS 18Z track the system 96L to Lousiana Makes sense given the steering pattern. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

1624. 954FtLCane 10:10 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting RobertM320: I have to agree...the last couple of times he really hasn't been bad, until people started going after him. This season's going to be too crazy for there to be this much wasted effort. If someone came in here for real information at a critical point, they'd leave with no information and that would be a sad thing. There was no excuse for him to have used the derogatory word for gay in spanish today.... no excuse at all. That is the final comment I will make about him... BTW that rainbow sat pic of 96 looks impressive Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1465

1625. BahaHurican 10:10 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Yep. We had very gusty winds up to 48 mph and BOOM out they went. Yah, lightning strike did us in last night, for about 2 hours. Looks like we're setting up for another lousy evening that way.... Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: iam still here just watchin and reading baha don't want to fall into a trap lol glad to see it's not just greyelf and me... lol looking at 4 potential areas of development and wondering how the blog will survive if all of them threaten to develop in the next 4 days..... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

1626. HurricaneSwirl 10:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
I doubt 96L will be red until tomorrow at 2AM. Probably 50% at most at 8PM. But hey, I guess there's a decent chance that I'm wrong. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1627. bappit 10:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Interesting how they analyze the front for 95L. It curves down through the northern half of the storm. The convection seems to be on or to the east of the front in the tropical air. The northwest section does not seem to have the convection. (I'm going by the GOM visible loop.) So I guess when that happens the low is said to be "attached" to the front. The front is a boundary enhancing convection, and if the front were not there then the convection would not be there. Just speculating ... trying to understand what "attached" means. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 4423

1628. RobertM320 10:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: Lol me too haha. Eventually all of the experts are gonna get fed up and move out, all of the trolls are gonna bicker here, and all of the people who aren't experts, but are serious about this stuff are gonna be left in the wind. :/ Point well taken, Swirl Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

1629. Tazmanian 10:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L is all so smaller then 93L was so 96L can ramp up vary fast Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615

1630. EricSFL 10:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
The last thing good'ole Jindal and the people of Louisiana need is a tropical cyclone heading their way. Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

1631. Eyewall07 10:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Claudette1234: GFS 18Z track the system 96L to Lousiana Link Please :) Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 40

1632. Relix 10:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Some info regarding the wave east of the Antilles? Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359

1633. Patrap 10:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Click FRONTS and MSLP 95L Wv Loop Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1634. AstroHurricane001 10:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
To the blogger recently affected by Hurricane Alex, the next time you are p-ssed at something, please take an effort not to bring the anger onto the blog. When people get angry here, it creates drama. Thanks. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1635. RobertM320 10:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting 954FtLCane: There was no excuse for him to have used the derogatory word for gay in spanish today.... no excuse at all. That is the final comment I will make about him... BTW that rainbow sat pic of 96 looks impressive no argument there. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

1636. hydrus 10:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: 95L will be what at 8pm 1) Yellow 2) Orange 3) Red 4) TD 5) Bonnie I will say 3 RED I think orange mane...:) Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682

1637. Hurricanes101 10:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: 95L will be what at 8pm 1) Yellow 2) Orange 3) Red 4) TD 5) Bonnie I will say 3 RED I see 1 yellow Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1638. Patrap 10:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1639. CybrTeddy 10:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
IMO if the NHC's in a really generous mood they'll give 96L a 50% chance. I don't seem them jumping to Red just yet, they'll want to see persistence. They MIGHT emphasis on the might bump 95L up to 20-30% just in case it decides to break away from the trough just in time to develop. They might also give a 10% to the wave in the Eastern Caribbean with 'some slow development is possible' Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

1640. Patrap 10:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1641. sarahjola 10:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
95l is what we in st.Bernard call a tropical poof:) that has got to be the tiniest storm i have ever seen. its almost cute:) could 95l have any chance to develop into something else. the storms in the system are some what non existent. 96l looks as though it could be nasty. does any one think it could get strong fast? quicker than Alex did? never mind what the update says, where do you all see it moving right now at this moment? where is your fix on the coc, if it has that right now? thanks in advance:) happy 4Th everyone! God bless America! Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

1642. medicroc 10:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I see 1 yellow Red Member Since: September 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

1643. Claudette1234 10:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting reedzone: Makes sense given the steering pattern. Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

1644. EricSFL 10:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
LOL Patrap! Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

1645. Hurricanes101 10:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
95L has very little convection to it, and none of it is strong pressures are still high in the area, overall 95L is still pretty weak Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1646. sarahjola 10:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
why is 95l not firing up convection? tia:) Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

1647. JLPR2 10:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: IMO if the NHC's in a really generous mood they'll give 96L a 50% chance. I don't seem them jumping to Red just yet, they'll want to see persistence. They MIGHT emphasis on the might bump 95L up to 20-30% just in case it decides to break away from the trough just in time to develop. They might also give a 10% to the wave in the Eastern Caribbean with 'some slow development is possible' I agree 100% :) I see I came here after the drama ended :D Huzzah! just in time LOL! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

1648. ACEhigh 10:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Is that Plywood psychopath really a met grad student? The paragraph or so of that "thesis" I could actually endure read as if it were written by a mentally deficient 4th grader. Either something is rotten at FIU or this guy is full of it. This site needs to start charging a nominal fee or something- I'm ignoring over 130 people and yet it is still quite an effort to muddle through the incesant nonsense. Member Since: April 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

1649. Tazmanian 10:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
am sorry all i guss i did yet thing out of hand a little but am sorry so what this forget it and get back too the weather Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615

1651. BahaHurican 10:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Use ur tools, folks. Don't quote inflammatory / derogatory remarks. Use [-], [!] and [ignore]. DO post interesting links, imagery and articles that relate to the wx events being discussed. Don't kill off all the crows in the world by making wild unsubstantiated (to replace a shorter word lol) guesses about the wx; use ur tools! Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

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