A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting StormW:
Hi kman!


Hi there Storm. Looks like "son of 96L" trying to come to life just offshore the N coast of Honduras. This season may be one where we see many unexpected things, like how 96L has behaved so erratically to date.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Sorry i posted the possible LOw developing off TampaBay from my phone. Now on the computer.....MORNING BY 1 minute...LOL

I really felt like a geek reading this blog on my phone for the last few years. I was hiding and supressing my terrible habit. Now I know, I'm not alone. I'm out of the closet now.
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3699. angiest
Quoting IKE:
96L ain't looking like much on both GFS's.

GFS 12Z at 66 hours....



Parallel GFS 12Z at 42 hours....



I've never really seen GFS pick up this system.
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3698. Drakoen
The GFS shows shear relaxing and becomming more conducive in the central and western GOM over the next 24-36 hours which could allow for some GOM development of 96L.
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Yeah Aqua, rained that little bit here this morning but that is all we have gotten.
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3694. Drakoen
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
sorry nrtiwlnvragn don't see that weak cyclonic curvature in that area also look at some station abd this is the result

1010 mb bouy near yucatan
1013 mb West Carib Sea bouy
1014 mb Little Cayman bouy
1010 mb Cabo Gracias a dios Wx station(honduras)
1011 mb La ceiba airport Wx station(honduras)


It is there. Look at the Yucatan Channel
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Quoting StormW:
Got your attention?

12Z STATISTICAL MODELS


12Z DYNAMIC MODELS


Yes! Less organization and less models running is always a good thing in the morning. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Tim


Sorry i posted the possible LOw developing off TampaBay from my phone. Now on the computer.....MORNING BY 1 minute...LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3691. beell
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like a pretty decent spin in the blob just to the east of Honduras where the heaviest convection is. Is it my eyes or do you see it too ?


I agree. Something is trying to spin up there.
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3689. aquak9
gambler- no water needed here! I got PWATs aoa 2.0 inches today.

was hoping annoying alex would be followed by boring bonnie...not gonna happen.
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Water is really high right now. The family drove by the Caernarvon flood wall yesterday and the water was almost up to the road. Just saw we are in a coastal watch because the tide is 1 foot above normal because of the winds. We really could take a break from the rain.
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BR/NOLA Radar
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3678 Sounds reasonable.
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sorry nrtiwlnvragn don't see that weak cyclonic curvature in that area also look at some station abd this is the result

1010 mb bouy near yucatan
1013 mb West Carib Sea bouy
1014 mb Little Cayman bouy
1010 mb Cabo Gracias a dios Wx station(honduras)
1011 mb La ceiba airport Wx station(honduras)
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imo 96L probably won't develop until Thursday in the Gulf.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like those readings we saw yesterday from buoy 42056 may have been correct. Ship Carnival Liberty reported a pressure around 1006mb at 8UTC. 96l jumped northward in a big way.


Thats what I concluded this morning after first going WTH with the 8AM coordinates.
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3680. IKE
96L ain't looking like much on both GFS's.

GFS 12Z at 66 hours....



Parallel GFS 12Z at 42 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:
Got your attention?


You definitely have mine.
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3501 IKE "21.1N and 85.7W is at the Yucatan channel...WTH?"

Well the NHC did say in their discussion that they viewed 96L as the wave that came in from the east, and not as the pre-existing convective system that the wave travelled into.
And bloggers did discuss how the wave was in the process of passing through the convective system yesterday. Apparently it has.
So while we've been waiting for typhoon-like development in our convective-system96L, the NHC tracked their wave96L into the Gulf.

Or at least that's the only way the 96L's new position makes sense to me.

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Mobile Radar
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3676. bassis
Quoting StormW:


Statistical Models

NHC.

NHC MODEL TECHNICAL SUMMARY


Thanks. I know most of that went over my head but now when I see those graphs i will comprehend what I'm looking at
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That's right Aqua, at least your trying. Looks like ya did a bang up job also.
Give her some water folks cuz she's on FIRE!!!
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3672. Dakster
Storm,

Got mine and I don't even live in the area... Not a great model run for those in Northern TX / LA...
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3671. aquak9
hey gambler? I'm trying here. Really I am. I might be dumb as a bag of rocks, but you'll never see a bag of rocks try harder than me.
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95L briefly a warm core system ?

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting StormW:
Got your attention?

12Z STATISTICAL MODELS


12Z DYNAMIC MODELS

I'm paying attention!
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Little bit of weather spinning off 96L?

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Key West, FL
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3667. Drakoen
Looks like those readings we saw yesterday from buoy 42056 may have been correct. Ship Carnival Liberty reported a pressure around 1006mb at 8UTC. 96l jumped northward in a big way.
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Quoting StormW:


You'll have to stop in and share a cup of coffee!


I'm only 30 minutes away so I'll bring the crullers! lol

Good morning all. STILL raining here in New Port Richey, FL and I'm beginning to think it will never stop.
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Appears 95L's COC is drifting west, maybe a little south of west.

Link
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Quoting sarahjola:
is 95l getting its act together? local radar shows some banding. where will it make landfall?


I just saw a 1011.1 come up at the NW side of it. It doesn't seem to want to make that turn and go inland yet.
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is 95l getting its act together? local radar shows some banding. where will it make landfall?
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
The main center of 96L is near 18.6N and 83.9W. The other center near the Yucatan is already falling apart.
Which would be just to the east of Honduras.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Ohh water puppy, you just think your sooooooooooo smart now don't you....LOL
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The main center of 96L is near 18.6N and 83.9W. The other center near the Yucatan is already falling apart.
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Quoting beell:


Make sure you don't call it a wave, nrt...
:)


I'll go with ATCF, disturbance.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L not dead just yet. Convection getting closer to the LLC and Winds sustained 29mph




still attached to the front, very close to land
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3656. bassis
Quoting aquak9:


OOO!! OOO!!! let me try to answer this one, PLEASE??

ok, statistical models, use information from the past, like where storms have historically gone in the past, taking into account the present conditions.

dynamic models take more info into account, using the info acquired at the beginning of the computation, and working it into the later part of the computations.

Statistical models try to look into the past for info. Dynamic models try to look into the future for info.

PLEASE someone tell me that's kinda right...


Thank you. i appreciate the answer
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Quoting Drakoen:


I can see some cyclonic curvature oriented east to west on. Perhaps the northerly shear is impeding on its development causing the convection to lag south of the system.
Looks like a pretty decent spin in the blob just to the east of Honduras where the heaviest convection is. Is it my eyes or do you see it too ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting StormW:


Palm Harbor.
I live in Largo. Glad to know you are in the neighborhood. Thanks for your expertise.
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95L not dead just yet. Convection getting closer to the LLC and Winds sustained 29mph


Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Good morning Tim
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.