A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3551. IKE
Yes, it's the non-tropical NAM....but at 18hrs. on the 12Z run...where is 96L?

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
I see a spin just north of Honduras and another one headed for the Isle of Youth.

At 21.1N and 85.7W I see no spin.
Thank You Ike at least you agree whith me
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Quoting kmanislander:
The CIMSS wind shear map is still messed up. It is time stamped for today but is showing yesterday morning's 850 vort map.
I noticed that as well.
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Quoting sarahjola:
so 96l must be dying. that is amazing how fast these invest fall apart. 96l looked like a depression last night, and this morning its a shell of what it was last night. just heard on the news that the oil is getting near the rigoletts, and maybe in a little bit. this is gonna be bad. i can see it will get into the lake. st. Bernard parish president said its getting into our bayous down there and that makes me sick to my stomach. best fishing in the world in those bayous. red fish(my favorite), trout, flounder, sheep head, drum. you can catch all these fish while watching the alligators relax and sun bathe.:( will the gators move inland to get away from the oil? i sure hope so. as much i as love the fishing, i love to watch the alligators. they are so beautiful, and awesome. prehistoric looking.


BP oil spill 'increases arsenic in ocean' British scientists say


THE BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is increasing the level of arsenic in the ocean, British scientists have revealed.

Imperial College London researchers published a study which found oil stops the oceans natural filtering process of arsenic.

The arsenic then gets magnified up the food chain, as fish eat small amounts of the deadly poison and may eventually impact humans, researchers said.

Professor Mark Sephton said arsenic, which is found in seawater, was normally filtered out of the ocean when it combined with sediment on the sea floor.

But oil spills stop the normal process because the oil combines with sediment and it leads to an accumulation of arsenic in the water over time," he said.

"Arsenic only needs to be a 10th of a part per billion to cause problems.

He added: Our study is a timely reminder that oil spills could create a toxic ticking time bomb, which could threaten the fabric of the marine ecosystem in the future.

Prof Sephton said comprehensive mapping of arsenic levels around the world was needed. The maps would allow authorities to consider banning oil drilling in areas with dangerous levels of arsenic.

The findings were published this month in the journal Water Research.

BPs Deepwater Horizon rig has been spilling between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico each day since it exploded on 22 April.
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3547. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TAFB position tomorrow morning 8AM EDT





That's a WNW movement from it's current position.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3546. aquak9
skylight repair, gambler? that thing still givin' ya the headache? hope for sure ya got it fixed this time.

96L ain't dead by no means, sara. Just glad it looks pathetic this morning. Will take each morning like that with a smile.
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3545. IKE
I see a spin just north of Honduras and another one headed for the Isle of Youth.

At 21.1N and 85.7W I see no spin.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The CIMSS wind shear map is still messed up. It is time stamped for today but is showing yesterday morning's 850 vort map.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

I am beginning to believe that no one really knows where the low is with 96L. I have seen coordinates that have literally been all over the map in the NW Caribbean. Either the low is jumping around or tracking it has been sporadic.
I still believe its right under the convection and will stick to it till the crow comes onto my plate
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kman, I was thinking the same thing. I kept getting readings further North that were lower than what they were using. Then we have 95L just sitting out there when it looked like it was coming ashore last night. I guess every storm is going to have a mind of its own this year.
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TAFB position tomorrow morning 8AM EDT



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Sarah, I don't thik 96 is even close to dying
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Still dunno. Did come back to an expected pressure. This almost looks like an eye passed very close or directly over.



But leaning towards "that ain't right"...


Good morning.

I am beginning to believe that no one really knows where the low is with 96L. I have seen coordinates that have literally been all over the map in the NW Caribbean. Either the low is jumping around or tracking it has been sporadic.
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so 96l must be dying. that is amazing how fast these invest fall apart. 96l looked like a depression last night, and this morning its a shell of what it was last night. just heard on the news that the oil is getting near the rigoletts, and maybe in a little bit. this is gonna be bad. i can see it will get into the lake. st. Bernard parish president said its getting into our bayous down there and that makes me sick to my stomach. best fishing in the world in those bayous. red fish(my favorite), trout, flounder, sheep head, drum. you can catch all these fish while watching the alligators relax and sun bathe.:( will the gators move inland to get away from the oil? i sure hope so. as much i as love the fishing, i love to watch the alligators. they are so beautiful, and awesome. prehistoric looking.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


No, the COC is far to the north of the convection on the coast of Honduras. Land interaction isn't what happened.
We will wait a couple of hours and see what happens There are still not a lot of visible loops available to actually tell whats really going on
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Just a little rain this morning Aqua. Starting to shine now and was able to check my skylight repair. NO HOLES
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Watching the loop for 95L he seems to be just sitting there trying to gain some strength. Poor little fella. Could have at least given him some kind of honorary name.
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3534. guygee
Looks like the 06Z HWRF was still trying to develop 96L. 06Z GFDL did nothing with 96L.
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3533. aquak9
hiya gambler. Loved the way Ike said 95L looked like a little raccoon. They can be smart little buggers, y'know?

A little further review- nothing really ramped up over night. Nothing looks better than yesterday. A'course, 95L's proximity to land has got to be throwing ya'll into a tizzy over there.
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3532. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0900 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ALONG 83W/84W FROM CUBA W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO W PANAMA
MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 78W-86W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA W OF 76W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WHILE THE
WAVE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS STILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND WRN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting belizeit:
I still see the storm on the cost of Honduras on the visible its right under that big blob of convection just like last night . That is why the system became last organized because it moved towards the SW last night and felt the land interaction


No, the COC is far to the north of the convection on the coast of Honduras. Land interaction isn't what happened.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
3516This almost looks like an eye passed very close or directly over...

Mentioning an "eye" ought to still the blog a bit...LOL

An interesting observation though.
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Yep Ike, I kind of have a soft spot for the little guy as I watched him being spawned over my head.
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I still see the storm on the cost of Honduras on the visible its right under that big blob of convection just like last night . That is why the system became last organized because it moved towards the SW last night and felt the land interaction
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good morning water dog
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Another View from 25k



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3525. aquak9
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide.

Pleased to see what a mess 96L is this morning. A little dry air, a little shear, competing areas of low pressure...doesn't take much to make me happy.

Let me enjoy my little nirvana for a while, ok?
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Recon was already canceled.
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Quoting sarahjola:
do you all think recon will be canceled? they are supposed to leave at 1:30. that is what someone said last night. does anyone think that 96l is going to get some convection later today? why has 96l not blown up into a depression yet? are the conditions not favorable? if not, could you explain why,and if conditions are expected to change? thanks in advance.:)
Morning Sarah, Someone posted earlier that recon has already been nix. Not sure who though.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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do you all think recon will be canceled? they are supposed to leave at 1:30. that is what someone said last night. does anyone think that 96l is going to get some convection later today? why has 96l not blown up into a depression yet? are the conditions not favorable? if not, could you explain why,and if conditions are expected to change? thanks in advance.:)
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Still dunno. Did come back to an expected pressure. This almost looks like an eye passed close.



But leaning towards "that ain't right"...


Wind at that bouy is now out of the south which would make sense with a system moving over it towards the NW/NNW.
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Almost closed but, still open to the NE it appears!

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Cancun did see lower pressure this morning.

Latest 8 AM (12) Jul 05 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.84 (1010) Calm
7 AM (11) Jul 05 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.82 (1009) Calm
6 AM (10) Jul 05 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.82 (1009) Calm
5 AM (9) No Data
4 AM (8) Jul 05 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) Calm
3 AM (7) Jul 05 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.85 (1010) Calm
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3517. IKE
Quoting Kristina40:
Hahaha Ike, but the little bugger still ain't dead yet...


LOL...true...a survivor.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Maybe that Yucatan bouy plunge lastnight was legit and they are tracking the area of lowest pressure.
Still dunno. Did come back to an expected pressure. This almost looks like an eye passed very close or directly over.



But leaning towards "that ain't right"...
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I think the center of 96L is moving and will probably end up close to the channel. Seems there is convection firing up there and the L will probably reform under it..

Just my thought.
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Hahaha Ike, but the little bugger still ain't dead yet...
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Is there a 97L n of the leewards yet?....
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3512. IKE
95L looks like a raccoon with 2 eyes bugging out. 96L looks like a 40% chance needs reducing to about 20%....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the moisture from 96L is getting drawn/pulled/moving NNW, but at 21.1N and 85.7W is very little.


Maybe that Yucatan bouy plunge lastnight was legit and they are tracking the area of lowest pressure.
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Quoting cccidojr1:
any chance of 96 coming to my hometown? im in corpus christi..

God, let's hope not. Maybe it'll fizzle out.
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3509. IKE
Looks like the moisture from 96L is getting drawn/pulled/moving NNW, but at 21.1N and 85.7W is very little.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Here is a GHCC Loop centered on the new coordinates. Now it is in Rapid Scan Mode, but I don't see it.
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I'm giving 95L a 5% chance and 96L a 15% chance. The blobs further out? 1% chance. Given all the hype on this season, I'm surprised how slowly its starting.
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Quoting IKE:


What were the stats 6 hours ago?


Originally LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 83.3W

Now

AL 96 2010070506 BEST 0 205N 853W 25 1010 DB
AL 96 2010070512 BEST 0 211N 857W 25 1009 DB
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3505. Dakster
IKE,

I agree I don't see a center there either...
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Quoting IKE:


What were the stats 6 hours ago?


That is a big relocation. At 06z it was at 17.3N-83.3W.
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any chance of 96 coming to my hometown? im in corpus christi..
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Don't get it, how they got these coordinates:

AL 96 2010070512 BEST 0 211N 857W 25 1009 DB


With this data as input:

AL 96 201007051145 DVTS 1740N 8290W SAB 1010 ///// DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO DT PA=50 NMI
AL 96 201007051145 DVTS 1810N 8320W TAFB 1015 ///// DT = 1.0 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
AL 96 201007051200 ANAL 1775N 8365W CIRA 201007050025
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3501. IKE
21.1N and 85.7W is at the Yucatan channel...WTH?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.