A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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5301. xcool
MiamiHurric -Freedom of speech
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Quoting ElConando:
95L can still do some stuff to SE LA flooding and minor damage could happen as this continues inland.
New models have tropical storm hitting central tx.coast now..
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Taz - did you do that on purpose? (call him out of hiding?)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
These are not betting odds. =)


1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
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Folks: Where does 95L's moisture go next? Any chance it ends up in north central Texas?
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WOW, gotta go, bye folks, be back later, hopefully have a fresh new blog to scroll through.
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Quoting xcool:
palmpt .it call Freedom of speech
It's called going against the "Rules of the Road". Don't curse unless you want a *cue music* "Perma Ban!"
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Patrap:


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.
Did you really think it would?
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Robert, I accidentally flagged one of your posts. If admin's give you any grief it was an accident and meant for the post above yours. I'm sure they will see your post was not inflammatory or off topic though. Having mouse issues.
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I think it is as ridiculous to give 95L a 0% chance now as it was at the 2:00 TWO. The forming COC is lingering on the coast and has been for 2 hours. It seems to be moving NW, along the coast, and could still develop further. I'm not saying it will reach TD status, but I am saying it deserves better than 0%. NHC is cocky today.
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I'm out till the blog regains some sanity.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I know this is off topic,but could someone plz tell me why FLdeway thinks my name is a disquise?
Sweetheart I have no "Idea"
and "Not Smart" if you know what i mean....


Taco :o)
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Quoting STORMTOPII:
The NHC is out to lunch...


It was a cute little gale center.

Better to give 60% warning in an oil-soaked GOM.
now... back to 96L
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95L can still do some stuff to SE LA flooding and minor damage could happen as this continues inland.
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Sooooo entertaining, this weather blog is. Well, enough entertainment. Think I'll work on the storm shutters for the new house. Back later and lurk some more.
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5281. xcool
Tazmanian jfv is here
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5280. calder
Quoting Patrap:


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.


i think the concept of percentage is lost on most of the blog
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As has already been pointed out, they bumped it up because there was a chance that it could pop before making landfall. Now that it IS making landfall and didn't intensify enough, the chance is ZERO. This isn't some tinfoil hat C/T.
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5278. xcool
palmpt .it call Freedom of speech
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5276. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

plz edit the two except miami plz it was an order for one TWO only


No, it was suggestion, if people want to post it, let them post it, you are making more posts about not posting it that the ones with the Two and this one is also a waste of space LOL!
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Quoting aquak9:
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

if this is what we have to look forward to this Season™ from the NHC....

Where's my magic eight-ball?


You mean 95L? It made landfall. It looks like a subtropical storm.
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5273. Patrap
Quoting calder:
good god people. Think about it. 95L suddenly started trying to organise and it looked to the nhc like it might be able to make depression status before landfall - hence the special advisory at 60%... Now since we're close to coc landfall and the system isn't yet a depression hence the percentage drops to near 0. Is it really that hard to comprehend?


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



now look here we can post has many twos has we need too


LOL
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


In the end that got it right IMO

not disappointed here


Yeah the drop back to 0% was expected.. that STWO should have never been posted and we knew that from the time it was posted.. not surprised nor disappointed.


Honestly though I am kinda baffled by the NHC. If they brought it up 30% that would've been understandable, but that doesn't warrant a STWO, which is why it wasn't needed. While it was definitely detaching and whatnot that 60% was way overboard IMO.
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5270. palmpt
Quoting xcool:
NHC F-- JOKE

Xcool is uncool.
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



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I know this is off topic,but could someone plz tell me why FLdeway thinks my name is a disquise?
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5267. calder
Quoting btwntx08:

plz edit the two except miami plz it was an order for one TWO only


***NO***
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on

well its not legal
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...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W MOVING
SLOWLY W-NW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-22N BETWEEN 83W-91W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE...WHILE A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...MOST OF CUBA...AND AN AREA FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 76W-86W. WHILE A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO
DEFINE...A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON CANCUN RADAR
THIS EVENING NEAR 19N96W...OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF COZUMEL. IT
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND WESTERN CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on


Why?
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Wow, I must be a weather dweeb too. Can't pull myself away from the BLOG. J/K LOL
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Quoting btwntx08:

plz edit the two except miami plz it was an order for one TWO only



now look here we can post has many twos has we need too
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5260. aquak9
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

if this is what we have to look forward to this Season™ from the NHC....

Where's my magic eight-ball?
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5200+ comments!
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5258. calder
Quoting CosmicEvents:
It's ridiculous. And disturbing to think about what happens when we get close to a landfalling strong cyclone in the US mainland. Admin does need to do something and I expect they will.
.
.
In the meantime, we have some serial posters that need to show some self-restraint instead of posting every last thing that enters their head.


agreed wholeheartedly. They know who they are...
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We need a new blog, now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting itrackstorms:
5000 posts

We are in serious need of a new blog.
It's ridiculous. And disturbing to think about what happens when we get close to a landfalling strong cyclone in the US mainland. Admin does need to do something and I expect they will.
.
.
In the meantime, we have some serial posters that need to show some self-restraint instead of posting every last thing that enters their head.
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LOL that's hilarious. 0% to 60% to 0%? LOL
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Yawn
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Quoting Seastep:
OK. For the 95L... and life... and such... knock it off.

You obviously don't live in FL.

Is it a weather event? Yes. Watch the weather, but this should not be something raising alarm.

This is from a storm (that's 150mph anchorage) that came through my neighborhood about a month ago.



95L is not going to produce that. Not even close.

If someone is not watching the weather and knowing that they are going to get some rain and wind, well, tough.

I guess the bottom line is, it is not something that needs to be prepared for.

Anyone in a hurricane effected area that is "really" concerned about this needs to move.

Looks nice, though. ;)


Seastep....Informative MAIL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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