Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010 +2
Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...
Categories: Hurricane
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2051. xcool 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
97 come soon
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
2052. MiamiHurricanes09 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting RitaEvac:
96L going to mexico people quit wishcasting
Explain your reasoning please.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2053. leo305 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is no 97L yet


oh, I thought there would be one, since they tend to declare waves and systems invest when they hit 20%
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752
2054. RuBRNded 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..



lol, at least its on subject again.
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
2055. Cavin Rawlins 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting RitaEvac:
96L going to mexico people quit wishcasting


You remembered when I said not Texas for Alex, well its not the same case this time around.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2056. RitaEvac 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
like in 05 everything is close to home
2057. Jedkins01 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Most of 96L's moisture is probably gonna get sucked into the trough in Florida anyway! LOL

We picked up over 3.50 inches today, and 1.77 yesterday, and over 10 in the last week! I love this
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321
2058. SiestaCpl 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


95L was nuther 18-20 to da coast,then inland thru the thickest warmest marsh.


Stay Tuned.



Land Rover is ready here...LOL..bad habit I picked up in Africa..can drive through water up to the windows..if it isn't moving too fast!!!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
2059. MiamiHurricanes09 11:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


LOL! 25 circles, of all different colors, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, magenta, scarlet, cinnabar XD
LOL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2060. CybrTeddy 11:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
NHC's going to run out of yellow crayon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179
2061. TampaSpin 11:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
READY! SET!! GO!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
2062. Dakster 11:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..



Do you hear that often Patrap??

Isn't there a post limit per blog... I remember last year we exceeded it.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4922
2063. texascoastres 11:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
noaa has 4 circles now
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
2064. RitaEvac 11:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Weather456:


You remembered when I said not Texas for Alex, well its not the same case this time around.


Nooooo! dude Im going on a trip, what are you seeing??
2065. beell 11:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.


Thanks, W456!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12838
2066. Drakoen 11:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting WxLogic:


Jeje... close.


And perhaps a bit further west :)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
2067. HurricaneSwirl 11:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
I see someone in the NHC went a little overboard with one of these:

Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2068. RitaEvac 11:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Explain your reasoning please.


lmao cuz Im going on a trip and dont want to be worrying about the gulf
2069. SiestaCpl 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Kristina40:


Is that a Red Shoulder Hawk? He looks almost identical to one that lives in the woods next to our house. I have a whole family of Black Racers that lives under my driveway, very cool snakes.


Red Tail Hawk here....the big bad boys (or girls more often if they are big) of the Hawks in North America...
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
2070. Patrap 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
2072. RuBRNded 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC's going to run out of yellow crayon.


NHC is gonna have an aneurysm.
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
2073. TexasHurricane 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Weather456:


You remembered when I said not Texas for Alex, well its not the same case this time around.


What? Where are you thinking it will go?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2074. MiamiHurricanes09 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting RitaEvac:


lmao cuz Im going on a trip and dont want to be worrying about the gulf
LOL!! Well I'll leave that one up to W456.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2075. xcool 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
96L FROM LA/TX border.
KEEP EYE OUT
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
2076. LightningCharmer 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


Do you hear that often Patrap??

Isn't there a post limit per blog... I remember last year we exceeded it.
Post Limit? Have seen over 4000 posts several times. What would that limit be?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111
2077. Patrap 11:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
2078. Cavin Rawlins 11:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
What is so amusing is that 2, 3 and 4 have the potential to become named systems. They really do. As for 95L, well I don't think so.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2079. muddertracker 11:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..


eeek...roflmao!! Hooper drives the boat!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2093
2080. WxLogic 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
My goodness... I can't imagine Aug. and Sep. when it comes. The atmosphere is definitely trying its best to balance all the heat content in the tropics.

This blog will definitely be too busy to follow soon.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4666
2081. TampaSpin 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    


MJO is due to arive in 7-10 days...HOLLY CRAP
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
2082. Tazmanian 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:



95L looks like 95L is starting too fall a part some
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111313
2083. ackee 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
The wave near Island should be invest 97L before night is over I think invest 96L will be a TD#2 BY 5AM
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194
2084. pottery 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting Weather456:
What is so amusing is that 2, 3 and 4 have the potential to become named systems. They really do. As for 95L, well I don't think so.

Agree.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703
2085. Dakster 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Post Limit? Have seen over 4000 posts several times. What would that limit be?


IIRC, 6,000 posts. Unless Dr. M and his tech staff increased the limit or upgraded the blog software.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4922
2086. CybrTeddy 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
We'll likely have 97L soon with the area entering the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179
2087. hydrus 11:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2010    
Quoting muddertracker:

eeek...roflmao!! Hooper drives the boat!
Chief...Hooper drives the boat chief.lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14243
2088. RitaEvac 12:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
95L reminds me of Alica in 83, small system and south of LA
2089. MiamiHurricanes09 12:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Weather456:
What is so amusing is that 2, 3 and 4 have the potential to become named systems. They really do. As for 95L, well I don't think so.
Agreed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2090. Patrap 12:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting muddertracker:

eeek...roflmao!! Hooper drives the boat!



snicker,ack..!

vvvvrooooom!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
2091. LightningCharmer 12:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I see someone in the NHC went a little overboard with one of these:



Don't mind their "crayon" circles. Just hate when they use that "cone" drawing tool though.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111
2092. hydrus 12:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:


MJO is due to arive in 7-10 days...HOLLY CRAP
Arent we already in an upward phase?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14243
2093. stormpetrol 12:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Wait a minute I leave for a few hours and now 4 AOI, who ticked off Mother Nature? Caribbean AOI looking better organized by the hour.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394
2094. Cavin Rawlins 12:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2095. MiamiHurricanes09 12:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:


MJO is due to arive in 7-10 days...HOLLY CRAP
MJO in our basin and reluctant to leave because the Atlantic is where all the activity is.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2096. TampaSpin 12:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting RitaEvac:


Nooooo! dude Im going on a trip, what are you seeing??


That Trough is might big and pretty strong...?

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
2097. Dakster 12:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting stormpetrol:
Wait a minute I leave for a few hours and now 4 AOI, who ticked off Mother Nature? Caribbean AOI looking better organized by the hour.


BP did... 'nuff said.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4922
2098. CybrTeddy 12:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
96L and the Caribbean wave (97L soon to be) have the best shot of becoming Bonnie and Colin.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179
2099. tropicaltank 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Weather456:
The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas.
What do you think about the LA/MS region?
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
2100. LightningCharmer 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


IIRC, 6,000 posts. Unless Dr. M and his tech staff increased the limit or upgraded the blog software.
Thanks, wasn't aware of that. Guess I don't lurk enough to see them all.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111
2101. Cavin Rawlins 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
Arent we already in an upward phase?


We are.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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