Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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2151. medicroc 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: 5?? Whats the 5th one. Interested in knowing also Member Since: September 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

2152. Patrap 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

2153. Tazmanian 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
how many times do we need to post the twos Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

2154. Hurricanes101 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol StormW can lead one team and you can lead the other lol Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2155. SiestaCpl 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else. Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge. Without a doubt. 18Z 96L Run Rib anyone,..mmmmm ? ...had Voodoo BBQ for lunch but another rib...sure!! Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2156. MiamiHurricanes09 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol LOL! I call dibs on 96L's team. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2157. CybrTeddy 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20250

2158. Hurricanes101 12:16 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting medicroc: Interested in knowing also I think he meant 5 TWO graphics were posted, not that there were 5 circles on the TWO Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2159. HurricaneSwirl 12:16 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Dakster: ???? I only see 4... Unless I am missing something. He's talking about how many TWO graphs have been posted, not how many AOIs are shaded. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

2160. Cavin Rawlins 12:16 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: how many times do we need to post the twos Its July 4 and we have 4 circles so 4^4? Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2161. Dakster 12:16 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Patrap - Pass the BBQ sauce please... And hold the rain... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

2164. pottery 12:17 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Dakster: ???? I only see 4... Unless I am missing something. He means it's been posted, 4 times.... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

2165. SiestaCpl 12:17 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol LOL I think you are right! We'll take the...um..er...the easy ones! Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2166. HurricaneSwirl 12:17 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests. But how do we know which invests become CAT5's and which don't? Hmmm.. lol Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

2167. Cavin Rawlins 12:17 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests. LOL LOL Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2168. hydrus 12:17 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: We are. Other than a few areas of shear, Have you been able to find anything that could actually hinder tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin? Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

2170. SiestaCpl 12:18 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Dakster: Patrap - Pass the BBQ sauce please... And hold the rain... ....peeerfect day in LA....NOLA is dry and sunny...or it is just north of there where I sit.. Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2172. Claudette1234 12:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
The Antillies wave 97L have shear at NW in the last map, so by the moment i dont see a rapid developed. 96L has much more future. Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

2173. weathermancer 12:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I'm not discounting the trough split over the Bahamas by any means. I think that she has a good chance of becoming Danielle. Looks like a game of marbles in the Atlantic now. Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

2174. LightningCharmer 12:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: we are up to 5 TWO graphs now Six LOL Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

2175. Tazmanian 12:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: i may want too re move that Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

2176. Fl30258713 12:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: Its July 4 and we have 4 circles so 4^4? May the 4's be with you Young Skywalker. Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

2177. Dakster 12:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: He's talking about how many TWO graphs have been posted, not how many AOIs are shaded. Gotcha... I just misunderstood. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

2178. USSINS 12:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
2141, 2152. Exactly. Who would write this system off? Not a good idea. Yes, small, but does anyone remember Humberto? Plus, this is in good proximity to shore, making reaction time short, and in near proximity to all the DWH traffic. Buoy #42001 pressures are dropping. Good posts, fellas. Thanks.

2179. MiamiHurricanes09 12:20 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests. Well that will be no fun for 456 or StormW because category 5's only last for a couple of hours, on the other hand invests take long to develop. That's why invests is where it's at. LOL. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2180. Cavin Rawlins 12:20 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting hydrus: Other than a few areas of shear, Have you been able to find anything that could actually hinder tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin? Some dry air in the tropical Atlantic And all this cloud cover could have a negative feedback loop on SSTs Both can be overcome though. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2181. homelesswanderer 12:20 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
4! My turn to say wow! Now here's another wow. After 2 days of weather silence my locals speak up. Ch 12 said 95l or 96l either could become Bonnie. 95l was going north into La. And he categorically said 96l could not get any closer to us, SE TX than Corpus. Ch6 just said, And I'm not kidding. "There's really nothing going on in the tropics. Spent 2 seconds on 95l. Then that's it. OMG! THESE PEOPLE DRIVE ME NUTS!!!! I'm sorry I had to get that off my chest. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

2182. Tazmanian 12:21 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
there is no 97L yet Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

2184. JRRP 12:22 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Claudette1234: The Antillies wave 97L have shear at NW in the last map, so by the moment i dont see a rapid developed. 96L has much more future. we don´t have 97L Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4311

2186. Cavin Rawlins 12:22 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
This is why we need to watch the last three areas mentioned in tonights TWO. This chart has never failed me since it based on Coriolis, ssts, rh and wind shear. Through 4 days, shaded areas favourable for cyclogenesis...GOM for 96L, W Carib for Antilles wave and the Bahamas. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2187. nash28 12:22 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Ok... StormW, 456, myself, Drak and Levi get the real "underwear relocaters." Everyone else can fight for the rest of the scraps. Kidding of course:-) Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

2189. TexasHurricane 12:23 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: 4! My turn to say wow! Now here's another wow. After 2 days of weather silence my locals speak up. Ch 12 said 95l or 96l either could become Bonnie. 95l was going north into La. And he categorically said 96l could not get any closer to us, SE TX than Corpus. Ch6 just said, And I'm not kidding. "There's really nothing going on in the tropics. Spent 2 seconds on 95l. Then that's it. OMG! THESE PEOPLE DRIVE ME NUTS!!!! I'm sorry I had to get that off my chest. LOL....I totally understand....Course channel 6 doesn't really say anything until they feel more certain of the situation.....BUT, with that said they could at least mention that it is possible if things at the moment may suggest it. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2190. Patrap 12:23 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

2191. MiamiHurricanes09 12:24 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Interesting fact... Alex so far has caused $1.152 billion in damage. This is about 12 times of all the damages totaled in 2009. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2192. SiestaCpl 12:24 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: This is why we need to watch the last three areas mentioned in tonights TWO. This chart has never failed me since it based on Coriolis, ssts, rh and wind shear. Nice graphic..... Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2193. Tazmanian 12:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
i dont no how many of you got me on Ignore but the ones that dos i this like too say sorry about be for i guss i did yet thing go out of hand so if any one see this am sorry Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

2195. Levi32 12:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Good evening all. It looks like things are really heating up out there. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

2196. Cavin Rawlins 12:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Fact time! Alex so far has caused $1.152 billion in damage. This is about 12 times of all the damages totaled in 2009. Alex was that costly? Just goes to show, it only takes one. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2197. Patrap 12:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111476

2198. SiestaCpl 12:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Fact time! Alex so far has caused $1.152 billion in damage. This is about 12 times of all the damages totaled in 2009. Yaaaw! Tiem to help Portlight and other charities! Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2199. RitaEvac 12:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
I keep thinking of that Staples commercial of that guy saying "WOW! thats a low price!" But him looking at the NHC page with 4 circles out there saying "WOW! thats another circle!"

2200. MiamiHurricanes09 12:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Good evening all. It looks like things are really heating up out there. Yeah we got 4 AOI's. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2201. nash28 12:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Yo Levi. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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