Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2251. Tazmanian 12:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
nevere mine Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2252. TampaSpin 12:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane: Good Evening Levi, Storm, Tampa, Rita, Nash! All we need now is for JPHurricane2006 to show up and we would be complete! lol The crew is on tonite...LOL.....dang it...LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2253. Tazmanian 12:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting SiestaCpl: No time for worries we have "stuff" all over the sat maps...need us all watching..well mother nature doesn't need us at all..but it is fun to watch the systems at work 'eh? Your good here....enjoy! Hope others listen as well... me tooo Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2254. lordhuracan01 12:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. 2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 3. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART NNNN Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

2255. Levi32 12:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting bappit: Quoting StormW: Alex was blocked by a mid level ridge, not upper...and regardless of what the NHC has, it's not a wave...it's the same monsoonal, Typhoon type development. So the first point sounds like a semantic issue. The second one is more interesting. What is supplying the vorticity for 96L? It seems a lot different from Alex in that respect. With Alex it took a long time for vorticity to develop. The vorticity is being caused by positive feedback. Low pressures over boiling water.....this was festering for a couple of days before the tropical wave arrived. The monsoon trough has also had a tendency to drift north into that area to enhance convergence. The heat buildup got enhanced by a cold upper TUTT low early on, which then backed away to the southwest and ventilated the area. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2256. Patrap 12:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111602

2257. helove2trac 12:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
I just see different colors

2258. muddertracker 12:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: 456, Take a look at the Gulf, what do you see? That somebody left the barn door open? Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

2259. SiestaCpl 12:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting bappit: "Moving too fast" is key. Do not drive into water that covers the road. Also worth noting, National Guard diesel trucks were used after Allison. TV commentators kept repeating how they could run just as long as their exhaust pipe stayed above water. They were saying that just as they televised one of those trucks run off the road into a ditch. The whole thing went under water. Similar story recently in Houston with a lady who tried to get her car out of a flooded street. (An MCS dropped about 5 inches in two hours.) She drove drove off the road way into a flood retention pond over six feet deep. She drowned. Years of experience in the worst bush (and river crossings) driving in Africa...so well advised here..and that's a good reminder to all! Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2260. MiamiHurricanes09 12:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Close...memory brings back the same upper patter that strengthened OPAL...Weak trof to it's west; ridge to the N Sounds like a very interesting set-up for July. Something to take into consideration is that Opal is the 9th strongest hurricane in recorded history, so it definitely is a favorable set-up. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2261. Patrap 12:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111602

2262. hurricane23 12:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Some wild stuff from TPC...Would not be suprised to see 3-4 named storms in july. Could have been 5 with wave that just rolled of the african coast. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

2263. SevereHurricane 12:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: The crew is on tonite...LOL.....dang it...LOL LOL! Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2264. homelesswanderer 12:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: LOL....I totally understand....Course channel 6 doesn't really say anything until they feel more certain of the situation.....BUT, with that said they could at least mention that it is possible if things at the moment may suggest it. UGH! Don't even know why they bothered! Heck don't even know why I bothered looking. I'll never learn. :( Oh and Hi Levi. I'm hopelessly behind on posts. Lol. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

2265. nyhurricaneboy 12:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Happy 4th Everyone! Hurricane season is acting in the great words of Bonnie Raitt, "Let's give 'em something to talk about!" Speaking of Bonnie, we could have her by Wednesday. We might also see Colin before the week is out. This could get interesting... Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503

2267. Tazmanian 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting lordhuracan01: FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. 2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 3. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART NNNN is been posted 20 times now lol Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2268. MiamiHurricanes09 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
04/2345 UTC 27.7N 89.8W TOO WEAK 95L Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2269. sebastianflorida 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Who Left The Crayons Out? Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 509

2270. jpritch 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
This is so frustrating. We're supposed to fly from Austin to Cancun via Houston on Friday. It can't really wait. :( Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 291

2271. Levi32 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Hi everyone. Hope y'all enjoyed the holiday. Can hear the crackers starting to go off at the beach. Every year they post "no fireworks" and every year it's a big show down there. I see not the only thing cooking today was on the barbecue. Where is the invest east of the Windwards supposed to track? The tropical wave east of the islands will track through the Caribbean. The CMC tries to feedback the northern portion of the wave and take it north of the islands and up east of the U.S., but I have doubts that will happen. The bulk of the energy is going west through the Caribbean, where it could be trouble down the road farther west. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2272. bappit 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
StormW is Master. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4384

2273. Patrap 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111602

2274. TexasHurricane 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Close...memory brings back the same upper pattern that strengthened OPAL...Weak trof to it's west; ridge to the N Opal? and most likely going to TX? ughhhhhh Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2275. SevereHurricane 12:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 04/2345 UTC 27.7N 89.8W TOO WEAK 95L What a surprise... Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2276. JRRP 12:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

2277. Tazmanian 12:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: matches this... my eyes see 3 name strom un less i need new eyes Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2278. Levi32 12:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: UGH! Don't even know why they bothered! Heck don't even know why I bothered looking. I'll never learn. :( Oh and Hi Levi. I'm hopelessly behind on posts. Lol. Hey homeless lol. I know I've been gone all day so I'm catching up on stuff too. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2279. RitaEvac 12:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
My only hope is if we get all this activity in July with storms and convections with invests, maybe it will cool off the waters in time for August/September so an average setup is there instead of hyperactive activity

2280. Tazmanian 12:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
i smell a TD Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2281. SiestaCpl 12:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Well it's afternoon here but I have to accommodate the dominant time-zone in here lol. LOLOL years in Minnesota taught me to love watching the sun skim the horizon, but for you it's more of a circle...Northern Indian here...working in NOLA this week...Africa last year..FL for the beaches...time zone what is a time zone...? Where am I..? Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2282. MiamiHurricanes09 12:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane: What a surprise... Well it had a T1.0 earlier, that was the surprise. Lol. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2283. Patrap 12:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
This will all be over in 99 Hours. So best follow the Guidance and timing and spread the Word we could have a significant Hurricane Mid Gulf Come Late Tuesday. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111602

2284. Cavin Rawlins 12:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Close...memory brings back the same upper patter that strengthened OPAL...Weak trof to it's west; ridge to the N Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2285. Dakster 12:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Hmmm. An "Opal" in July -- What in the world does August and September have in store for us. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

2286. bappit 12:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The vorticity is being caused by positive feedback. Low pressures over boiling water.....this was festering for a couple of days before the tropical wave arrived. The monsoon trough has also had a tendency to drift north into that area to enhance convergence. The heat buildup got enhanced by a cold upper TUTT low early on, which then backed away to the southwest and ventilated the area. Ummmm, the NHC says there is a tropical wave moving through and StormW says there ain't. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4384

2287. SiestaCpl 12:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: my eyes see 3 name strom un less i need new eyes That seems imminent ..good eyes if you ask me... Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2288. RitaEvac 12:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting jpritch: This is so frustrating. We're supposed to fly from Austin to Cancun via Houston on Friday. It can't really wait. :( Are you kidding me I'm leaving Houston on Tuesday to Vegas and now everybody is saying storm in Gulf. And I might be in the line of fire, cant even enjoy a vacation!

2289. helove2trac 12:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
but opal didnt go to texas

2290. TampaSpin 12:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Well it had a T1.0 earlier, that was the surprise. Lol. Why was that a surprise....NO surprise here? Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2291. USSINS 12:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Hey homeless lol. I know I've been gone all day so I'm catching up on stuff too. Happy 4th, Levi, but go ahead and hurry up and give us the 411 on 95L. Small system, building convection on the west side now. An overnight surprise maybe? What's your take?

2292. xcool 12:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
HMM Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

2293. Cavin Rawlins 12:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
StormW I guess this is what you meant....4 Oct 1995. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2294. Levi32 12:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting bappit: Ummmm, the NHC says there is a tropical wave moving through and StormW says there ain't. There is a tropical wave "moving through" which is the key phase. It didn't spawn 96L, and 96L is not a tropical wave. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2296. SiestaCpl 12:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Enjoy all..off to pick up the wife and get her car from the airport and then dinner in NOLA...don't go cross eyed watching too close..share some ribs and watch the local skies for some fireworks too!!! Enjoy all! Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2297. blsealevel 12:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Is that a Trough on the cmc T=60 h round about where 95L is to go ashore + or -? Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

2298. goalexgo 12:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
95L is a joke. NHC really needs to stop pushing it. Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 126

2299. Tazmanian 12:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting SiestaCpl: That seems imminent ..good eyes if you ask me... thanks do you ues facebook i like too add any one oh ues facebook Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2300. BahaHurican 12:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Sorry pple, but every time I see that graphic again, I think "96L and the Yellows"... like a 50s doowop group.... lol Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17672

2301. beell 12:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
NDBC 42056 Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12884

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