Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting goalexgo:
95L is a joke. NHC really needs to stop pushing it.

noted

Quoting helove2trac:
but opal didnt go to texas

yes, I know....not sure if he was referring to the same area or the same strength but different location.

Quoting USSINS:


Happy 4th, Levi, but go ahead and hurry up and give us the 411 on 95L. Small system, building convection on the west side now. An overnight surprise maybe? What's your take?

I say it's a gonner. The heat buildup to its south and east is too much for it, and it's not big enough to compete. I don't think we need to worry about it anymore.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Why was that a surprise....NO surprise here?

The surprise is that it shouldn't of gotten a T1.0 in the first place, which it did get.

Quoting beell:


NDBC 42056

What a drop

Quoting beell:


NDBC 42056

Oh snap.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry pple, but every time I see that graphic again, I think "96L and the Yellows"... like a 50s doowop group.... lol

Good one, Baha!

Quoting helove2trac:
but opal didnt go to texas

True... Stormw was thinking of a setup like Opal. If it goes to Texas it could be like Ike...

Quoting Levi32:


Oh snap.

thats not good right ?

SkyePony was laughing at the 4circles last night;
ie the 00Z CMC placed 4lows on those 4circles then moved them:
Circle1(95L)'s low dissipated after heading northwest into a western Louisiana landfall.
Circle3(Bahama)'s low dissipated before hitting Florida.
Circle2(96L)'s low went straight to CorpusChristi.
Circle4(LesserAntilles)'s low headed toward Georgia, then turned northeast just left of the Bahamas and was heading toward Massachusetts.
A 5th low began development at ~34W as a CapeVerde ITCZ wave then turned into a low as it headed west of WNW to the LesserAntilles. After passing through those islands, it was heading through the highTropicalCycloneHeatPotential zone south of Jamaica when the run stopped.

I wonder if NHC will continue to follow CMC's lead with a 5th circle soon.

Quoting Tazmanian:



thats not good right ?

Not good at all..

Quoting StormW:


Well, if you go to the shear map (site) the 200mb flow on the map I posted would be a weak trof to the west of 96L, and a upper level anticyclone, albeit small, north of 96L...at around that time. The resulting flow would have the tendency to ventilate the area as it did Opal.

I see what your saying.

Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin
19.874 N 85.059 W

Conditions at 42056 as of
(6:50 pm CDT)
2350 GMT on 07/04/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 123 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.9 °F

Low-level steering:



Mid-level steering:

The Alex comparison can drift away as this 96L is a much more organized system in this stage of its new Life.

Plus..the System will tend to make the Gom a lot further N thru the Yucatan proper

Quoting Tazmanian:



thats not good right ?

A pressure drop like that in the tropics is never good.

well if it is the same setup as opal shouldnt it follow the same path?

Station 42056

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 123 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.9 °F

Quoting beell:


NDBC 42056

Very impressive.

when are the new update on wind speeds for 96L out may be will have 97L by then

Deepening is not a problem in 2010.

Quoting Weather456:


What a drop

Any idea what is going on? A pressure drop of 0.06" in one hour? Could it be from 96L's outflow, creating the big line of showers/t-storms over the Yucatan Peninsula causing the pressure drop?

2005

28 NAMED STORM



2010

A 20
B 25
C 30
D ?

96L moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,

Quoting Patrap:

looks very organized. is it a t.d already in your opinion? should we be worried about 96l in our part of the woods? tia:)

dos any one think will have a TD by sunday PM?

Quoting Patrap:

This is from fellow Wunderblogger mtyweatherfan90 describing needs in his area after Hurricane Alex:

Hi, my name is _______ _______ and I live in the northwest part of Monterrey in an area called Cumbres. We're mainly dealing problems with lack of drinkable water due to the destruction of many pipelines. I don't have water right now but they're other parts in the city that are dealing with a worse situation. We would like to see the way we could receive help like water, clothes, medicines, non-perishable foods, etc...

Thanks so much for posting that!

The blog sure is picking up speed.

Quoting lordhuracan01:
2005

28 NAMED STORM



2010

A 20
B 25
C 30
D ?

D) ?, about 15-18

Quoting helove2trac:
well if it is the same setup as opal shouldnt it follow the same path?

the upper environment in relation to intensity should not be confused with the upper environment in relation to track.

Just came back and my jaw dropped, we got 4 circles o.O
That's impressive for early July!

Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think will have a TD by sunday PM?

I think we will see TD#2 after recon investigates.

Well Pat they better start getting BP outta there, cuz this one is gonna stir those waters up more than Alex did

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,

Alex? Lol.

It's the son of Alex.

Or actually maybe the daughter?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,

Alex???

Quoting lordhuracan01:
2005

28 NAMED STORM



2010

A 20
B 25
C 30
D ?

C

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,

Alex was last week

Quoting sarahjola:
looks very organized. is it a t.d already in your opinion? should we be worried about 96l in our part of the woods? tia:)

Im going to stay up on it this early week as it has potential to Impact someone as the Model runs show.

Prepare now and ones ahead of the rat race.

Quoting Levi32:


Alex? Lol.

It's the son of Alex.

Or actually maybe the daughter?

LOL, my bad.

Taz where do you live? its already sunday pm

Quoting RitaEvac:
Well Pat they better start getting BP outta there, cuz this one is gonna stir those waters up more than Alex did

BP can stay..if they want.


I could care less.

For all they spend on weather Contracts from Private Firms,,
They could most likely get 3-4 good bloggers here.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
The blog sure is picking up speed.

Well there are 4 circles out there, lol.

Quoting SiestaCpl:


That seems imminent ..good eyes if you ask me...

"eye eye"... said the little 'cane that could.

Buoy 42057 which is closer to 96L is reporting a pressure around 1012mb...