Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2401 - 2451

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 — Blog Index

2401. blsealevel 1:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Link Very Ironic are we sure this isn't ground hog day. lol Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

2402. Patrap 1:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2403. pottery 1:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: The one closest to the system that isn't ridiculous sense... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

2404. Levi32 1:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I see that reading at 42056 as being anomalous as I am not finding surrounding pressures in the vicinity of that reading anywhere near that. Yeah I'm waiting for this hour's report to come in to see if the reading remains the same. You don't often see these buoys just randomly go haywire, but this one may have. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2405. MiamiHurricanes09 1:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting IKE: I was looking on here. Well they are the incorrect coordinates, I'll take the ATCF site. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2406. kuppenskup 1:02 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting JRRP: dry in front the wave near antilles When should that dry air in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic start to lift? Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

2407. JRRP 1:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
this image have been deleted a peticion popular Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

2408. Patrap 1:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
00Z New Batch Model Runs 96L Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2410. BahaHurican 1:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Thisfrom the 8:05 discussion: MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. Seems to suggest that whatever is forming out of this system isn't likely to spin up before midweek.... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17676

2411. Patrap 1:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
and then a step to the right.. Put yer hands on yer hip's Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2412. Hhunter 1:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2886

2413. MiamiHurricanes09 1:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: 00Z New Batch Model Runs 96L Can you post the image, I can't see it for some reason. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2414. Levi32 1:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
There is a serious decrease in convection currently with 96L, but it should burst again during the night. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2415. Levi32 1:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
BAM suite shifted slightly north. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2416. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 1:06 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: and then a step to the right.. Put yer hands on yer hip's Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

2417. MiamiHurricanes09 1:06 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah I'm waiting for this hour's report to come in to see if the reading remains the same. You don't often see these buoys just randomly go haywire, but this one may have. Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure Time (CDT) Pressure 7:50 pm 29.71 in Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2418. JLPR2 1:06 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting JRRP: dry in front the wave near antilles No problem for the wave, the SAL is moving along with it, the wave would have to move faster to get caught up in it Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2419. BahaHurican 1:06 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Anybody see HGW in the blog recently? Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17676

2420. nrtiwlnvragn 1:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting IKE: It's moved .2N and .6E.... Ike you are correct in that the original 18Z coordinates were 16.7 83.5. With the latest update to ATCF they changed 18Z to 16.4 82.6. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8943

2421. MiamiHurricanes09 1:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: There is a serious decrease in convection currently with 96L, but it should burst again during the night. Diurnal minimum taking its toll on 96L since it doesn't have a well-defined circulation. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2422. WindynEYW 1:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Geeze i am gone 20 minutes , i run a cardiac arrest call & dispatch 2 other rescues, i come back & there are 7 pages of blog to catch up on, gonna break out some of the good stuff & slooooooow the blog down below light spped so i can catch up Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

2423. pottery 1:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting JRRP: dry in front the wave near antilles That is SAL aerosols on that image. Not water vapour. There is some slightly drier air to the west of the system, but not by much. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

2424. JamesSA 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Can you post the image, I can't see it for some reason. You have to click the tab for "Storm 96". Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579

2426. MiamiHurricanes09 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Ike you are correct in that the original 18Z coordinates were 16.7 83.5. With the latest update to ATCF they changed 18Z to 16.4 82.6. Well that's weird. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2427. bappit 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting beell: NDBC 42056 gasp Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4387

2428. JLPR2 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Diurnal minimum taking its toll on 96L since it doesn't have a well-defined circulation. convection with the TW east of the Antilles is enhanced by something right? It made it through D-min suspiciously good. :\ Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2429. RitaEvac 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
I feel much better, this is a piece from NWS in Houston I copied and pasted here.... Moisture from the tropical wave in the Caribbean may also push northward toward the area during the latter half of the week as well. If so... higher rain chances may be needed. For now any development of the Caribbean system is expected to be well to the south.

2430. Bordonaro 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure Time (CDT) Pressure 7:50 pm 29.71 in Is that buoy near that huge T-storm complex over the Yucatan Peninsula? If so the sudden decrease in pressure may have been caused by that. It happens here in N TX during severe thunderstorms every once in a while. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2431. sarahjola 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting IKE: It's moved .2N and .6E.... so, it has moved nne? Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

2432. Levi32 1:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

2433. Patrap 1:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Purr-fect KOTG Madness..takes it toll Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2434. MiamiHurricanes09 1:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Models came right. STATISTICAL MODELS DYNAMIC MODELS Good call Storm! How bout that TVCN taking it to central Texas? Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2435. pottery 1:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Diurnal minimum taking its toll on 96L since it doesn't have a well-defined circulation. DMIN does not seem to have affected the east Antilles blob too much. DMAX is going to be rather spectacular, I think... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

2436. beell 1:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Can you post the image, I can't see it for some reason. Make sure you click "Storm 96" at the top. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12887

2437. blsealevel 1:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Link 96L will defently travel NW to NNW for a day or two. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

2438. Tazmanian 1:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: keep i would re move it or you risk geting banned Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

2439. MiamiHurricanes09 1:10 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty: Yeah I would say it is. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2440. stormwatcherCI 1:11 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty: I just looked at that buoy and it has pressure at 1006 mb and falling rapidly but isn't that too far north for 96L ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

2442. Dakster 1:11 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting WindynEYW: Geeze i am gone 20 minutes , i run a cardiac arrest call & dispatch 2 other rescues, i come back & there are 7 pages of blog to catch up on, gonna break out some of the good stuff & slooooooow the blog down below light spped so i can catch up Yep... BTW, Are you Fire Rescue in Key West? Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942

2443. nrtiwlnvragn 1:11 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Well that's weird. Not at all, ATCF is preliminary, unofficial data. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8943

2444. MiamiHurricanes09 1:11 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting beell: Make sure you click "Storm 96" at the top. No use, doesn't work for me. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2445. Patrap 1:11 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
geeuzum.. LOl Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2446. Patrap 1:12 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
00Z New Batch Model Runs 96L Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2447. JamesSA 1:12 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
I just took a look at the BP ROV cams and the only activity I see is they are hooking up their unattended dispersant system. I think they have noticed 96L too. :-( Not a good sign. Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579

2448. WindynEYW 1:12 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Dakster: Yep... BTW, Are you Fire Rescue in Key West? logistics chief for key west rescue Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

2449. JRRP 1:12 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: No problem for the wave, the SAL is moving along with it, the wave would have to move faster to get caught up in it Quoting pottery: That is SAL aerosols on that image. Not water vapour. There is some slightly drier air to the west of the system, but not by much. gracias por la aclaracion :) Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

2450. MiamiHurricanes09 1:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Yeah, both consensus models..TVCC also. Not good for the folks in Texas. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2451. beell 1:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty: Maybe so. 2mb's in 1 hr. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12887

Viewing: 2401 - 2451

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters