Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Levi32:
Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty:

Maybe so. 2mb's in 1 hr.

Crazy... 4 circles on NHC now

Quoting pottery:

That is SAL aerosols on that image. Not water vapour. There is some slightly drier air to the west of the system, but not by much.

This one is better?

Also Buoy 42056 is reporting a rapid pressure fall currently 1006mb so suspect it may be near a newly forming TD center over the NW Caribbean Sea.

Quoting WindynEYW:
logistics chief for key west rescue

Nice... I bet it is crazy in Key West right now.

Quoting xcool:

Hey xcool. Didn't see ya come in. :)

Rains here have once again commenced here in Cayman…along with squalls of about 25-30mph right now. I feel this is the beginning of a rather wet and windy night. Seems to be coming out of the ESE.

Is the TVCN model the one that the national hurricane center go with on most of there forcast tracks?

Just look at the NHC site, what a difference a day makes!

What is the time frame on the most recent models? I know it's too early yet, but as far as ballpark arrival on shore...

any info on that disturbance southeast of PR? It has caught me by surprise and it has 20%...

I pray this doesn't develop or anything. I live in friendswood which is by galveston and we got hammered with rain a lot of flooding in houses and stuff even though he made landfall in mexico. We don't need another storm please Levi StormW anyone don't develop this.

Pat, I said earlier that I'm thinking LA/MS area. But like I said then. I don't know squat.

I'm just north of Bayside and the fireworks are going off left and right.

2413 MiamiHurricanes09 "Can you [Patrap] post the image, I can't see it for some reason."

Gotta push the Storm96 button above the top right corner.

Quoting msgambler:
Pat, I said earlier that I'm thinking LA/MS area. But like I said then. I don't know squat.

Neither do I..

But No sir,

..I dont like it already.

Check out the pressure fall at 42056

Quoting Levi32:


Alex? Lol.

It's the son of Alex.

Or actually maybe the daughter?

Just got back after dinner. Then the name would have to be "Alexis".

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm just north of Bayside and the fireworks are going off left and right.

Is that actual fireworks of weather fireworks? lol

Hello

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

First mission for Monday afternoon if needed for 96L

Quoting StormW:


Well, looking at the maps, the wave at 18Z was located near 87W...96L at 2315Z was located near 84W.

So the Lake Charles office and NHC are wrong? The NHC said:

...Special feature... A tropical wave is analyzed over the far NW Caribbean...from western Cuba near 22n82w extending southwest to eastern Honduras near 15n84w...continuing into the far eastern tropical Pacific. This wave is embedded in an area of considerably high values of total precipitable water. Furthermore...water vapor imagery also indicates high values of moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere encompassing the wave. Broad cyclonic circulation is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis and most of the western Caribbean on the visible spectrum.

Quoting bigdoge3:
I pray this doesn't develop or anything. I live in friendswood which is by galveston and we got hammered with rain a lot of flooding in houses and stuff even though he made landfall in mexico. We don't need another storm please Levi StormW anyone don't develop this.

If I could stop it I would! I can only try to help figure out where it will go if it does develop.

Quoting HouGalv08:
Just got back after dinner. Then the name would have to be "Alexis".

I would say Alexandra. But Alexis will do! =)

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Is that actual fireworks of weather fireworks? lol

Actual fireworks. LOL, very beautiful.

Hey Drakoen I don't even think that the COC is even where the BEST track plots puts it I think it is more like at 17.6N 81.2W and movement to the NW-NNW

96L isn't a tropical wave. Explain how 96L's area of disturbed weather was festering 2-3 days before the wave at 87W even arrived? And barely moved 1 degree longitude during that time?

Quoting JLPR2:


This one is better?

Yeah! Good one.
You can see the convection with the system pushing the drier air away in front of it. North west.
No doubt the dry air will help to restrict performance, and perhaps this is why the NHC has it at 20% for now.
Going to give the islands some heavy rain I think.

I'm surprised we don't have 97L yet, expect it at any moment.

What is it with this pictures that makes everything look intimidating LOL!

Some terrible squalls here in SouthWest(South Sound) , Grand Cayman, can't stand the howling, have to take a clonazepam to relax.

Link

36 h still moving NW to NNW.
Is this about the same time frame that Trof is to open up between Tx. and Miss.?

Quoting Levi32:
96L isn't a tropical wave. Explain how 96L's area of disturbed weather was festering 2-3 days before the wave at 87W even arrived? And barely moved 1 degree longitude during that time?

The NHC thinks otherwise, even though I think you are correct.

From the 8:40PM EDT discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...FROM
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN HONDURAS
NEAR 15N84W...CONTINUING INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF CONSIDERABLY HIGH VALUES OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ENCOMPASSING THE WAVE. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND MOST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THE VISIBLE SPECTRUM. CURRENT WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

This is for Storm W:

I've paid attention to your contributions for several years and am impressed with your professionalism. Your attitude and caring for the individuals who know some or little about Meteorology. You are patient and understanding and this is so important. Thank you.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actual fireworks. LOL, very beautiful.

Yeah, those are nice, but I'll have to wait for New Year's to see some of those XD
Meanwhile expect the Wunderphotos section to be filled with fireworks pictures LOL!

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey Drakoen I don't even think that the COC is even where the BEST track plots puts it I think it is more like at 17.6N 81.2W and movement to the NW-NNW

As msgambler just said, I don't know squat either but that is exactly what I see.

Quoting StormW:
Levi?

Storm?

Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, those are nice, but I'll have to wait for New Year's to see some of those XD
Meanwhile expect the Wunderphotos section to be filled with fireworks pictures LOL!

LOL!

The NHC loves to explain away lots of things with tropical waves. They did the same thing with 92L.

Quoting JLPR2:
What is it with this pictures that makes everything look intimidating LOL!

Please tell me that's not headed toward the area 96L is in , I'm starting to feel a little sick to be honest.

Quoting Levi32:
96L isn't a tropical wave. Explain how 96L's area of disturbed weather was festering 2-3 days before the wave at 87W even arrived? And barely moved 1 degree longitude during that time?

now i understand jejeje

Quoting StormW:


I think the point some folks are missing, yes...there is a tropical wave in the Caribbean...NO! 96L IS NOT PART OF IT...THE WAVE DID NOT CAUSE the formation of 96L!

Exactly.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Some terrible squalls here in SouthWest(South Sound) , Grand Cayman, can't stand the howling, have to take a clonazepam to relax.

Wow! Looks like you are in for a bad night!
Take care...

Quoting StormW:


I think the point some folks are missing, yes...there is a tropical wave in the Caribbean...NO! 96L IS NOT PART OF IT...THE WAVE DID NOT CAUSE the formation of 96L!

Oh I understand that very clearly. I think we can all agree that the tropical wave only was added later to the equation but 96L did not form out of a tropical wave.

Hi Storm - If that 1006mb pressure from 42056 is valid then we might have a center forming somewhere near the buoy based on it's light winds so far.