Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

edited

04/2345 UTC 16.9N 82.7W T1.0/1.0 96L

Still no word from ADT.

Quoting blsealevel:
Link

I'm not liking the looks of this today anyway.

"Ominising" comes to mind.
The word was coined by a blogger here a couple years ago, cant remember who. Good word!

.

Quoting AllStar17:


Structure improving.

Overall yes. 96L will likely look very good in the morning after the diurnal maximum.

Quoting JRRP:

That's old though.. Sadly. 15Z, or from 11AM EDT

Quoting StormW:


A Cutter is any of our vessels over 65 ft in length...I was stationed on a 327ft, 210ft, and a 270ft.

Senior, is this another typhoon event in the Caribbean like Alex was?

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I will disagree with the consensus on the blog, 96L vorticity is from the tropical wave that tracked across the caribbean as shown by the 850mb movie. No need to respond.

This tells a different story. While the tropical wave naturally enhanced low-level vorticity as it passed through the area, you can clearly see that the heat buildup over the past several days has been generating its own low-level vorticity field for some time now, before the wave arrived. The wave is traveling on its way at a fast clip, and temporarily dragged the highest vorticity westward with it, but you will see this re-situate under 96L's cloud mass, which the last image in the loop above shows. The tropical wave is moving on. 96L is self-sustaining and was not spawned by the wave.

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's old though.. Sadly. 15Z, or from 11AM EDT

when is the next update ?

Quoting StormW:


Ya remember that active 2010 season I told ya about?

HA!!
Its July 4th, and not a Hurricane as yet!

(kidding you, Storm...)

Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.

Someone must have fed it after midnight and it multiplied lol

Quoting pottery:

Steering patterns (current ones) dont look promising.
Sorry.
But the system over you should have moved out by then, if it pans out.

We had very gusty winds & squalls here in Grand Cayman today/in my estimation probably peaked mid to high tropical storm force, for short durations.Torrential rain this hour too.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I will disagree with the consensus on the blog, 96L vorticity is from the tropical wave that tracked across the caribbean as shown by the 850mb movie. No need to respond.

100% @gree

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Someone must have fed it after midnight and it multiplied lol

must have been all that vegemite it ate

Quoting StormW:


Ya remember that active 2010 season I told ya about?

Uh Yea....but this is kind of scary.

Hey Aussie... Hope you had a good night's sleep.

Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.

I would stay away from bed, if I was you.
Look what you did!

Good evening

Well, the area over the Windwards has now been flagged by the NHC but 96L seems to be engaged in Plan B. Squally weather has set in here again after a break this afternoon.

Sometimes these systems just sit over the NW Caribbean until they organize. Motion in any particular direction is not a given until then.

I really hope that nothing comes into the Gulf this week. We are having our high school reunion Fri & Sat...and we are planning a sunset cruise along the coast for Friday night.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
.

TAFB at 1.5.

AL, 96, 201007042345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1660N, 8270W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, HC, VI, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.5 PAT=

Are these thyphoon type storms worse than Hurricanes are they just form different than Hurricanes?

Uh Ohhh. Here comes the Jimmy Buffet parodies.

Quoting WindynEYW:
must have been all that vegemite it ate

vegemite... yuck, feeding them that must of upset them.

Quoting JRRP:

when is the next update ?

It's supposed to update every 3 hours. It's broken tho.

Quoting StormW:


Yes.

Ok here we go again. 960 mb and TS force winds. This is REALLY getting interesting.

I think maybe JB is tnat wunder blogger here called,

...well,

..nevermind

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB at 1.5.

AL, 96, 201007042345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1660N, 8270W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, HC, VI, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.5 PAT=

How do you get to TAFB? I can get to SAB and ADT but that one's new to me. :)

Quoting StormW:


Excerpt from Bastardi:

There is a tropical wave entering the caribbean, two frontal waves, one in the central gulf that should go into Louisiana tomorrow, the other off Florida, and what may anther western gulf development.. the area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean. Like Alex, this is not a tropical wave though of course TPC says it is. If it is a wave moving west at 15-20, how is it we have looking at this budding area in the same place for 3 days? Because its not a wave, its gradually lowering pressures and increasing upward motion caused by the pattern and the development of abnormally low pressures, if only by a millibar or two, over abnormally warm water. TPC should send some of their people out the southwest Pacific to watch typhoons develop.

Totally agree.

Quoting Dakster:
Hey Aussie... Hope you had a good night's sleep.

managed to get 4hrs, wont say it was rest-full sleep, just sleep. thanks for your concern.

Quoting hercj:

Ok here we go again. 960 mb and TS force winds. This is REALLY getting interesting.

Buckle in, folks..

Boogity,Boogity,boogity.

Lets go tropical Blogging..Boyz

Quoting StormW:


Excerpt from Bastardi:

There is a tropical wave entering the caribbean, two frontal waves, one in the central gulf that should go into Louisiana tomorrow, the other off Florida, and what may anther western gulf development.. the area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean. Like Alex, this is not a tropical wave though of course TPC says it is. If it is a wave moving west at 15-20, how is it we have looking at this budding area in the same place for 3 days? Because its not a wave, its gradually lowering pressures and increasing upward motion caused by the pattern and the development of abnormally low pressures, if only by a millibar or two, over abnormally warm water. TPC should send some of their people out the southwest Pacific to watch typhoons develop.

Isn't Bastardi speaking in Ft. Meyer's next week? (Look out..) Interesting quote too.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


How do you get to TAFB? I can get to SAB and ADT but that one's new to me. :)

ATCF - FIX

Click on where it says "fal962010.dat" and then you'll see the numbers. Here's the thing, make sure to scroll to your right because that is where the info is.

*Obviously click on the corresponding system, but in this case I just pointed out 96L.

Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.

oh my, i've been mia for a min. i come back to this. i thought it was some type of sick joke..lol. amazing, we are in for a ride! Happy 4th of july everyone!

2560 AussieStorm "What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange."

AHA! So those things popped up cuz you were too busy sleepin' to knock 'em down like you were s'poseta.

that buoy might be broke..however, with a large pressure drop..it always takes 6-12 hours for the winds to catch up to it.i'm also looking for the reason why cmc and nogaps takes soontobe bonnie more north. there is a weakness in there somewhere possibly. might be from 95l?

Quoting pottery:

I would stay away from bed, if I was you.
Look what you did!

Sorry, i tried to stay awake as much as i could, but when my brain stops functioning and my body is frozen, a nice warm bed was the place to be.

Kman: Good evening, how is it outside down your side tonight?

Quoting AussieStorm:

managed to get 4hrs, wont say it was rest-full sleep, just sleep. thanks for your concern.

I've been through the same thing a few times now. The first few days aren't that great and sleep is something that doesn't come easily. Although time may not "heal" all wounds, it at least dulls the pain.

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Are these thyphoon type storms worse than Hurricanes are they just form different than Hurricanes?

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.

Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.

ok.....just curious. Thanks.

Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.

Quoting StormW:


Yes.

They don't issue models until they're labled invests, right?