Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2651. pottery 2:21 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Yeah, I'll agree that they are virtually the same thing, but Pacific Typhoons generally form from a large area of unorganized convection while Atlantic storms are spawned mostly by thunderstorm complexes that move off of Africa. I think this year people are comparing the systems we've seen in the Atl so far to the way in which pacific typhoons form. True. Good points. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

2654. MiamiHurricanes09 2:22 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2655. Dakster 2:22 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: as all will dev the same we really have wpac type sst's and other factors which more than likly will govern most systems this season till sst's begin the downward turn and we wring out some water vapour from the atomsphere Yep... Nice poem. I see Patrap is still ignoring me... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5266

2656. Patrap 2:23 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting msgambler: Pat, I can see I am gonna have to make a trip to my local Wal-Mart for beer, coffee, and doritos. Gonna be a long week. Id get that done in the am ASAP. Cuz when this gets a name and the networks,which runs about 18 hours behind us here will have the a run on the stores somewhere. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112973

2657. kmanislander 2:23 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: No way. Not believing that ob.... I agree. Maybe the barometer fell in the water or something. Nothing in any of the surface graphics supports that. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

2658. BahaHurican 2:24 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
is that Freak91 in the blog??? Good 2 seeya, kid! Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2659. Patrap 2:24 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Dakster: WOW. Patrap... Nice Radar. I c-yas. Just eating and blogging. COol whip and a brownie Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112973

2660. Tazmanian 2:24 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle. hold on there slow down its not even the end of july yet Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

2661. FLWeatherFreak91 2:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: is that Freak91 in the blog??? Good 2 seeya, kid! Hey Baha Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516

2662. MiamiHurricanes09 2:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
00:00 UTC shows the highest 925mb vorticity consolidating around the strongest convection. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2663. atmoaggie 2:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting P451: Oops! Green one on the image.... First impression is that it is most certainly an error. Yet, the QC algorithms let it through... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2664. Patrap 2:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Increase in the showers in Mississippi Sound as the Atmosphere moistens up a tad tonight. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112973

2665. mikatnight 2:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Id get that done in the am ASAP. Cuz when this gets a name and the networks,which runs about 18 hours behind us here will have the a run on the stores somewhere. And that's why i read this blog to get that 18 hour head start Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 2186

2666. MiamiHurricanes09 2:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: hold on there slow down its not even the end of july yet Crazy huh? Well they all have a good chance of becoming a TS. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2667. Dakster 2:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
I thought you were mad at me... Welp. Time for me to go to bed. Hopefully I don't wake up to any "surprises" or more circles! Good night all. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5266

2668. msgambler 2:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
At least not too many crows will perish Pat. It is just the 2 of us that seem to have this agreement. Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

2669. atmoaggie 2:27 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I agree. Maybe the barometer fell in the water or something. Nothing in any of the surface graphics supports that. Would be anomalously high pressure in that scenario... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2670. weathersp 2:27 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle. I don't know about getting to D before the 10th LOL but out of all of the wave's right now, this one is got the most going for it... which is time.. and albit low shear. Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

2671. Mikla 2:27 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Buoy and METAR info... Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 227

2673. Patrap 2:27 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112973

2674. gordydunnot 2:27 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Just got home from fireworks, what's up with the NHC map looks like their using illegal fireworks or is that just a shot gun approach. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2675. MiamiHurricanes09 2:28 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting weathersp: I don't know about getting to D before the 10th LOL but out of all of the wave's right now, this one is got the most going for it... which is time.. and albit low shear. I think all 3 systems that I pointed out have a good chance of becoming a TS. Weather456 can explain clearly why I believe that. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2676. kmanislander 2:28 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Would be anomalously high pressure in that scenario... Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

2677. MrstormX 2:28 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
It fell so quick, that to me usually indicates some kind of an error... either that or 96L is really strengthening quick. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312

2678. Tazmanian 2:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Crazy huh? Well they all have a good chance of becoming a TS. ture Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

2679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day. i didn't think anyone notice but you been here a bit so its expected Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

2681. atmoaggie 2:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Just got home from fireworks, what's up with the NHC map looks like their using illegal fireworks or is that just a shot gun approach. Hadn't thought of that. Maybe the NHC needs to use red, white, and blue on their maps when their just playing around. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2683. Bordonaro 2:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Please excuse the off-topic post for a minute. To all the WU folks along the Boston, NYC, Philly down to DC. Heads up! The heat wave you will experience this week is very similar to the TX heatwaves we have every summer. Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non- caffeinated beverages, like water & Gatorade. Wear light-weight, light-colored clothing. Avoid exercising or doing any strenuous activities during the heat of the day. Please stay in the AC as much as possible. Do NOT risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke, as they can come on quickly & kill. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2684. aquak9 2:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
goodness. I come back and it's four circles. shotgun approach, gordy. :) Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

2685. bwi 2:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: No way. Not believing that ob.... Maybe the buoy tipped over! Wind readings died same hour pressure plummeted. We'll know soon enough. Any ship obs? Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1138

2686. LADobeLady 2:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: You don't really want to know, do you? No I'm southern and live on the coast of LA so I'm happily doing my Scarlett O'Hara thing and will think about it tomorrow. I love swimming down the bayou of denial...oil and all. Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

2687. Tazmanian 2:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
hey 09 do you think will be up too the N storm by the end of the july if we see thing rely pick up Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

2688. Asta 2:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Usually on July 4th there is nothing to watch in the tropics. The tropics don't really start until middle of August and peak in September. If early July is as active as it is now what will August and September bring? Snow!- just kidding.. but nothing would surprise me... Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

2690. Hurricanes101 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
um Plywood, JFV or whatever your name is 96L is not getting sheared and for anyone who wondered why you should be banned for good, your last post is an example your condescending nature towards other is not welcome here Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

2691. aquak9 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
can't forget the zombie. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

2692. LADobeLady 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aquak9: goodness. I come back and it's four circles. shotgun approach, gordy. :) Shhhh Aquak that is just the NHC having some fun with their crayons! :) Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

2693. BDAwx 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
how about that. Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

2694. aspectre 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
2612 Patrap "[Radar Loop of 95L]" So the CoC is back over land? Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

2695. hercj 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Good night all! Busy day tomorrow. Night Senior. Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2696. HurricaneSwirl 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
On this date in 2005 we were following Tropical Depression 4, which would later become Tropical Storm Dennis the next day. Dennis would become the strongest July hurricane only to have that record broken just a week later by Emily. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

2697. aquak9 2:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
ladobelady♥ Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

2698. MiamiHurricanes09 2:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: hey 09 do you think will be up too the N storm by the end of the july if we see thing rely pick up No. Lol. From what I'm currently seeing and thinking, (call me crazy, lol) I believe we will see 5 named storms in the month of July. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2699. brla61 2:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting pottery: Excellent! And you? I'm great!. Just trying to learn here. don't know much about weather but for some reason i'm addicted. lurking every week since Gustave hit. Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

2700. atmoaggie 2:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment. Sry, just hit me that it would cause high pressure...figured I'd say as much. No biggie, of course. Yeah, something's not right. Though, I'm pretty sure these major moored buoys have 2 barometers. I know they have 2 anemometers. Been to the workshop they are built in and deployed from, once. (Where's that guy that had an internship at NDBC? He might know) Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2701. viman 2:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Good evening all, seems Like we may run out of floaters this year. Lol -- What would the AOI east of the Leeward Islands be, Invest 97L or 98L? Which came first the AOI east of SFla or the one east of the Islands and would that determine how it gets classified? TIA Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 350

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