Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3151 - 3201

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 — Blog Index

3151. chrisale 5:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting AlexEmmett: one per week You're saying it is more the norm to have one area of interest per week, yes? Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 60

3152. jlp09550 5:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: jlp09550 .SOORY 95L DOOM Lol, I just want to see what it does since it's right offshore from me, heading in my direction. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

3153. xcool 5:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
jlp09550 LOL Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3154. homelesswanderer 5:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Yep back to TX/LA. Well one good thing yesterday everyone was saying the CMC was on drugs. Personally I think the GFS has been smoking that wacky tabacky but thats just my opinion. Lol. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3155. Grothar 5:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aspectre: 3087 Grothar "96L starting to look mean" Take a look at P451's 2483posting. Even the color bar is shakin' (from 224 to 250) Do I have to?????? Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

3156. AlexEmmett 5:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting chrisale: You're saying it is more the norm to have one area of interest per week, yes? thats how it been the last few years and this july we have 4 and the 1st week isnt even up yet

3157. JLPR2 5:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
hmm... so... ...yeah LOL! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

3158. jlp09550 5:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Yep back to TX/LA. Well one good thing yesterday everyone was saying the CMC was on drugs. Personally I think the GFS has been smoking that wacky tabacky but thats just my opinion. Lol. It appears none of the computer models are trustable anymore.. at least not this year. They're all smoking something, that's for sure. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

3159. Grothar 5:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

3160. TexasHurricane 5:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Yep back to TX/LA. Well one good thing yesterday everyone was saying the CMC was on drugs. Personally I think the GFS has been smoking that wacky tabacky but thats just my opinion. Lol. hmmm, interesting.... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3161. xcool 5:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
ngp to Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3162. Grothar 5:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

3163. homelesswanderer 5:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting jlp09550: It appears none of the computer models are trustable anymore.. at least not this year. They're all smoking something, that's for sure. Yeah. That could be too. And Like with Alex once they get a good fix on the coc the models should fall in line. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3164. hunkerdown 5:44 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting AlexEmmett: thats how it been the last few years and this july we have 4 and the 1st week isnt even up yet better go back and check 2009...extratropical/subtropical system in early June, then nothing till near mid August...July = 0 Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

3165. Bordonaro 5:44 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3166. Bordonaro 5:45 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Nothing has changed :o)!! Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3167. homelesswanderer 5:47 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
This is what the HPC said yesterday morning. Before the models moved more east. TEXAS... WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN ADVERTISES A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW MEMBERS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY NO FARTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ORGANIZE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE 03/16Z COORDINATED POINTS BETWEEN HPC/NHC FOR THE TIME BEING WHICH AIM THE SYSTEM TOWARDS TAMPICO MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS TRACK MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED NORTHWARD. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3168. xcool 5:47 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
the you have it Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3169. OracleDeAtlantis 5:47 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
What would we do without our scatter backup ... Looks better up top and in the mid levels. Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 290

3170. JLPR2 5:47 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Nothing has changed :o)!! Well 95L dropped to 10% it was at 20% XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

3171. chrisale 5:48 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
WHat about the Eastern Atlantic? Why if there is so much activity on the West side, why no activity on the East side in the Cape Verdes? Dry Air? Wind Shear? Gives you the feeling that given another week or so and a little bit of "luck" (I use that term ironically) we could have areas of interest in every possible place. Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 60

3172. homelesswanderer 5:49 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: the you have it Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3173. xcool 5:50 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
15min ecw Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3174. TexasHurricane 5:50 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Gotta love these smiley faces.....well, in this case unsmiley face.... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3175. homelesswanderer 5:51 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Gotta love these smiley faces.....well, in this case unsmiley face.... Yeah. My little sigh guy. :) Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3176. jlp09550 5:52 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

3177. homelesswanderer 5:53 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: 15min ecw Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3178. xcool 5:54 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
homelesswanderer lmao Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3179. homelesswanderer 5:54 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Lol. That one was for laughs. :) Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3180. homelesswanderer 5:54 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: homelesswanderer lmao Lol. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3181. xcool 5:56 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
where rob Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3182. louisianaboy444 6:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
00Z NOGAPS takes it in South Central LA Link Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

3183. jlp09550 6:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting louisianaboy444: 00Z NOGAPS takes it in South Central LA Link Aha, that's right over me. ^_^ Exactly. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

3184. homelesswanderer 6:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: where rob I dont know. Saw him earlier. The HWRF is sending it to him. He needs to follow closely on this too. I guess he got transferred to the day shift. Lol. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3185. aspectre 6:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
3087 Grothar "96L starting to look mean" aspectre "Take a look at P451's 2483posting. Even the color bar is shakin' (from 224 to 250)" 3155 Grothar "Do I have to??????" Nah, that's why I didn't post the loop or a link back to 2483. Viewing is best left for those with an iron constitution and a weak imagination. Besides, it's creepy enough that 95L has arisen from the dead. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

3186. xcool 6:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
HWRF way to south kick out door Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3187. louisianaboy444 6:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting jlp09550: Aha, that's right over me. ^_^ Exactly. yeah me also....hopefully it changes Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

3188. weatherblog 6:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting fire831rescue: I'm gonna throw caution to the wind and give my two cents worth... Regarding 96L, my prediction is that it tracks north-west then north, making landfall to the west of Grand Isle, LA as a high Cat 2, low Cat 3 hurricane... Just my opinion... I'm guessing you live there? LOL Seriously, it's pretty much impossible to pick a specific place of landfall. Picking a specific state might be a long shot, as well. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

3189. jlp09550 6:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting louisianaboy444: yeah me also....hopefully it changes Where are you at? (sorry if I've asked before, there are quite a few Louisianians here) Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

3190. xcool 6:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
<<<< SLIDELL LA Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3191. homelesswanderer 6:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aspectre: 3087 Grothar "96L starting to look mean" aspectre "Take a look at P451's 2483posting. Even the color bar is shakin' (from 224 to 250)" 3155 Grothar "Do I have to??????" Nah, that's why I didn't post the loop or a link back to 2483. Viewing is best left for those with an iron constitution and a weak imagination. Besides, it's creepy enough that 95L has arisen from the dead. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3192. TexasHurricane 6:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
everybody leave? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3193. TexasHurricane 6:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3194. xcool 6:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
DEL Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

3195. Bordonaro 6:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: everybody leave? I guess everyone is getting ready for later today. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3196. TexasHurricane 6:16 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: so another TX/LA? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3197. Bordonaro 6:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
See ya all later this morning, this blog will be a madhouse later today. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3198. jlp09550 6:19 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: so another TX/LA? It looks like it. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

3199. TexasHurricane 6:20 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: See ya all later this morning, this blog will be a madhouse later today. I'm sure it will be..... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3201. xcool 6:21 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
00z ECMWF MORE N Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

Viewing: 3151 - 3201

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters