Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

here 96L Convection refiring

Quoting Patrap:


Best of luck with the Whole situation.

Thanks. I think it will be okay. It's just hard to deal with another layer of worry. We're flying from Austin through Houston to Cancun, so it's probably in the cone at this point, but it sounds like the storm is likely to be well inland before we go.

I don't understand the models. They seem to be going way too fast with this (track-wise).

Models flip-flopping. BEEP

96L will remain no more than a strong wave.

Quoting bakers:
96L will remain no more than a strong wave.

What is your basis for this?

BUL SHI .96L TD COME SOON

Mon Jul 5 03:04:38 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 050643

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0643 UTC MON JUL 5 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600 100706 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 83.3W 19.6N 85.1W 21.6N 86.8W 23.7N 88.3W
BAMD 17.3N 83.3W 18.4N 84.6W 19.5N 85.7W 20.4N 86.9W
BAMM 17.3N 83.3W 18.8N 84.7W 20.3N 86.0W 21.8N 87.3W
LBAR 17.3N 83.3W 18.2N 84.1W 19.3N 85.5W 20.5N 87.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600 100710 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.4N 89.9W 28.2N 93.0W 29.8N 95.0W 29.9N 96.1W
BAMD 21.2N 88.1W 22.1N 91.3W 22.6N 95.2W 22.9N 99.5W
BAMM 23.0N 88.7W 25.2N 92.2W 26.8N 95.3W 27.4N 98.1W
LBAR 21.8N 89.1W 24.9N 93.0W 27.5N 96.5W 29.1N 97.6W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 37KTS 48KTS 57KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 83.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

it appears good on satellite and that is all. no depth, no closed low. few models only show slight generation of the wave. many show none.

As I sit here in Port Fourchon, LA on a supply vessel waiting for 95L to dissipate, I can only hope my eyes and gut are both wrong, and
96L fizzles..but it sure looks like it will be TD #2 soon.....Hope not...we are trying to get back out to Deepwater Horizon spill and skim up more oil..been shut down since Alex.....

ANYWAY

95L is looking pretty good tonight, its convection has refired and a shell oil platform south of the center has recorded a quick wind shift from the east to west over the last few hours. The spin is decent on radar too with cloud tops @ 40 kft..

Shell Oil Platform OBS

YEAH 95L

NEXRAD Radar

LOOK AT 95L spin OH WOW

I said earlier last evening that 3 am would be the witching hour for 95L.

That Dry air is off to the NW now and boom.

Climo is a reality.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Hurricane Cindy 5 years ago tonight



Current radar 95L

95L



Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 220 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 85.8 °F

Somthing is going on under 95L....

West wind shift followed by big spike in winds.

Wind Direction:


Wind Speed:(kts)

95L TD IMO IMO

Quoting weathersp:
Somthing is going on under 95L....

West wind shift followed by big spike in winds.

We've seen this before.
A Baroclinic Low..with Shear and dry air abating fast.

Now the flue iz open and the engine is starting to crank

PAT KEEP EYE ON 95L

The next Surface Map may show it detached.

95L lot of dry air today now wow

NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

The convective burst continues to grow.


New frame.

hmmm

3 rings in the Dvorak with the Inner a Butterfly pattern,,indicative of the Up pulse continuing and building.

Quoting xcool:
PAT KEEP EYE ON 95L

Okay... just saying... IF something were to develop from 95l...

... the stronger it gets - which direction is it most likely to go?

I'd rather Hous/Galv NOT get hit by two storms coming from different directions, but... if Houston getting hit meant that the Deepwater Horizon group could get back to work quicker and if there would be less oil damage if it hit Houston... then I say...

...bring it on.

Interestingconvection

The Guidance for 95 iz Nnw as shown by clicking the MSLP box here.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

The problem 95L presents isnt its impact so much,,its going to be Minimal at best..but the weakness it may leave behind for 96L to follow.


Stay Tuned this week early.

Quoting Patrap:
The Guidance for 95 in Nnw as shown by clicking the MSLP box here.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Thanks - I saw some models and they were mostly pointed toward SE Texas.

Link

errrm... xcool, it's the same ol' same ol' posted under his 15th or so pen-name -- contradicts something he knows was recently discussed (in this case, 96L existed pre-wave and is now post-wave) while also contradicting the overwhelming prevalence of opinions without giving cause or reason...
...in hope that someone will call him a moron or otherwise speak vituperatively.
And we all know his following steps...

0715 UTC Rainbow Image

aspectre bye iknow who you are

New Surface Map

Quoting Patrap:
New Surface Map

Interestingly, HPC continues to [analyze] a warm/stationary front with this low... However, I see no evidence of a frontal inversion on the 00z lix sounding.



ThetaE indicates a boundary right along the coast; however, that is likely the land/sea contrast.



EDIT [Corrected spelling error] What can I say? It's late...

lol

Quoting SALAMETGRAD:


Interestingly, HPC continues to analize a warm/stationary front with this low... However, I see no evidence of a frontal inversion on the 00z lix sounding.



ThetaE indicates a boundary right along the coast; however, that is likely the land/sea contrast.

I believe you and the Sounding are correct.

Its detached and on itsa own now.

I think the Radar return says the same

New frame is still increasing in Diameter and Symmetry

Quoting bakers:
it appears good on satellite and that is all. no depth, no closed low. few models only show slight generation of the wave. many show none.

It has good vorticity from 850 mb upward to 500 mb, based on CIMSS vorticity analysis.

You're correct about the lack of a closed low, but that too will probably change soon.

Many models also stubbornly refused to develop Alex initially.

Quoting Patrap:
New frame is still increasing in Diameter and Symmetry

For some reason, low pressure systems/tropical cyclones always seem to rapidly organize just prior to landfall. a la Isidore and Gustav. 'Tis weird.

95L looks good on the IR. Bad news for development though, the Shortwave Loop shows air (banding of clouds if you will) moving away from the low in the NW quadrant. The system has nice vorticity to the SW,SE, and NE, but remains embedded in a larger non tropical feature. Any quadrant where air is moving away from a low is a bad sign and this action is growing more pronounced with time. Actually, radar is now starting to support this too. Where this comes ashore, some good weather. Probably some gusty squalls, but a dead stick from the standpoint of further tropical development. Had this thing truely been able to seperate from the larger pattern, this would have had the potential to become one of those true "vort cyclones" I've referenced in the last two weeks, but this baby is out of time and will not do anything more.

Down the raod, 95L will be long gone. So highly unlikely that 95L will have any influence on 96L.

Quoting KoritheMan:


For some reason, low pressure systems/tropical cyclones always seem to rapidly organize just prior to landfall. a la Isidore and Gustav. 'Tis weird.

Yup..dat they do seems.


Cindy was 5 years ago tonight..


Go fig-yer

Quoting Patrap:


Yup..dat they do seems.


Cindy was 5 years ago tonight..


Go fig-yer

I thought Cindy was on July 6?

I might be wrong, though.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I thought Cindy was on July 6?

I might be wrong, though.

Night of 5-6 July see post #3269