A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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5151. oakland
Quoting aquak9:


you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon.


Aqua, I've been out awhile. Would you tell me too, please?

Thanx
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still no two
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet

did you call the NHC or something?


No but sit in on the Conference calls all the time :)
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet

did you call the NHC or something?
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
5147. xcool



KABOOM
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Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :)


you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet

did you call the NHC or something?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :)
Lol, you haven't sent me anything.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
What do you mean FLdeway?
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5142. aquak9
Quoting msmama51:


Please tell me what a zombie is in here?


you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon.
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5141. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There would have already been a renumber if so.


yeah, they seem to be thinking it LOL
Well, they have till 8 to publish it and be on time :)
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This is what I think stormpet the one at 19N 83W is the MLC and the one at 18N 82W is the LLC or the MLC making it way to the LL maybe when D-MAX kick in the convection will help out and maybe it could stall and stick around and take advantage of that hot water to the west of us
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
5138. Patrap
96L to swing that energy into the GOM via da channel seems.


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I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :)
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting wfyweather:
its a ts or the 8 would have already been out
There would have already been a renumber if so.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't post it Taz...Lol.


lol
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If you think this # of posts is crazy. Wait for the season to really get popping.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
Quoting Tazmanian:
there late
Don't post it Taz...Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
5131. oakland
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


just watch there will be photos of ppl using canoes in the southern part of broward.


I don't doubt it! :-)
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its a ts or the 8 would have already been out
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Quoting oakland:


Yes move, granted it seems to be at about 1mph, but yea it's been movin'


just watch there will be photos of ppl using canoes in the southern part of broward.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
5128. USSINS
Quoting RecordSeason:
The tar balls are 100% natural phenomenon.

We have not seen any evidence to suggest these tar balls are in any way connected to the relatively minor Deep Water Horizons event.

You can't believe everything you hear on CNN and FOX news. This oil spill is nowhere near as bad as they are claiming. Heck, it's barely a trickle. BP is gonna clean it all up. It's their oil. Give it a few months and you small people will never know it happened. Tony Hayward has canceled all of his vacations so he could concentrate on cleaning up the oil spill, and just the other day, he even skipped lunch. I even saw him shoveling some oiled sand personally!

The oil containment efforts have been a massive success as BP continues to bring in more resources to skim off lots and lots of oil, as well as capture it directly from the busted well. There is no evidence of cracked oceanic crust leaking additional oil, that was just a rumor. BP has given a 100% chance of success from the relief wells. They are guaranteed to work! I mean, they are double redundant, so if anything went wrong the second one is SURE to work right? What more can we do? Make them triple redundant? That's overkill!



This is sarcasm, right?
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5127. Patrap
95L now analyzed at 1008 mb Low

Floater - Visible Loop
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Up my way started getting it this afternoon.Heavy squalls too I might add.
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there late
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hey sweetie.How are you tonight?Are you getting a lot of rain from the outer bands of 95l?If thats what they call it.
Yeah we got some this morning for about 3 hours but it has been sunshining since. But a little is better than none.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Fox news says...possible tropical depression in gulf.......


Nice to see they are really on top of things...
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To minimize the already 5000+ blog, you can be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
To minimize the already 5100 blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.


Ummm why don't you just post a link to it... then no one has to post it :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
5117. oakland
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


Move? That thing has been moving quite slowly all day and that is the reason for the advisories and warnings that were posted for our areas.


Yes move, granted it seems to be at about 1mph, but yea it's been movin'. It's also been expanding so it appears to stay in place.
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5116. xcool
AT 40% NHC
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
To minimize the already 5000+ blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.

go for it i hope people will listen
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Quoting Kristina40:


Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons.


Our 6 dogs and countless cats didn't act too weird last week when Alex landed 100 miles south of us, but my ears were popping the day before till it dissipated. The dogs just hid in the dog houses during the rain, the cats hid too, I guess.
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5113. xcool
Link


rader loop for 96L
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Wow, 102 pages. Went back to page 2 and read a few posts. There were two dinosaurs arguing about the projected path of hurricane Barney.
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To minimize the already 5100 post blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Seastep:
Sorry, forgot the pic in 5055...

Here it is:


better get that fixed never know when the next cane will strike
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Funny last night and early this morning all heavy convection was to the East of 96L , it seems as of midday and this evening it has switched to the west side
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Hey sweetie.How are you tonight?Are you getting a lot of rain from the outer bands of 95l?If thats what they call it.
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Quoting oakland:


I've been watching the western side of it move my way all day. I'm amazed it held together all the way from Naples


Move? That thing has been moving quite slowly all day and that is the reason for the advisories and warnings that were posted for our areas.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
5106. JLPR2
Quoting Kristina40:


Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons.



Yeah I remember my parakeets were going nuts during Hurricane Georges, well they are now deceased :( But yeah, animals, even ants know XD
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5105. bappit
Quoting StormW:


I know Orca, but got some of the folks who sent me to the Conference to further my knowledge, I bring it back here, and well.....

Seems it is okay to say mets working for NOAA don't know what they are talking about (see yesterday).
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Quoting aquak9:
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.


Please tell me what a zombie is in here?
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5103. leo305
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?


the center is moving WNW on visible
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour.



my poor F 5 key
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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