A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Take a look at the satellite loop then ask yourself which part of the circulation closes last before you have a depression . Now tell me if that side is closed already according to the visible .
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1800. Patrap
96L 18Z Models
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah...first off, 96L isn't a wave, second, unless it becomes CAT 3 or better, and upper level ridge ain't gonna do squat for steering.


Well, at least to be fair to them, the sentence before the upper level ridge part says "THE GFS/ECMWF SUPPORTS THE NOTION
THAT ODDS ARE AT LEAST ON OUR SIDE...", so I think they were just interpreting where it would go if those model runs were to come true. I dunno, could be totally wrong, just a novice here :)
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Quoting Weather456:
I am becoming increasingly inclined to believe 96L is a threat to Texas.



Is there and trough that can pull it further up Texas or into the Northern Gulf?
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1797. JamesSA
Quoting Weather456:
I am becoming increasingly inclined to believe 96L is a threat to Texas.

It looks like it will be a large system, like Alex, too. This one has my full attention!
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1796. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 27N90W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN NW AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS IT
BECOMES DIFFUSE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BUILD A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OR POSSIBLY A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND INTO THE SW GULF TUE AND WED. THIS SYSTEM MAY THEN REACH THE
MEXICAN COAST THU.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
This is certainly no 2009, lol wow. Talking about the possibility of our second and third named storms and its only July 4th.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
What is better than eating pulled pork with backed beans and grilled corn and Blogging on WU.....Priceless..at least the food is..HAPPY 4th of JULY GANG!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting YourCommonSense:


Dry air to the rescue

is´╗┐ it a bird, is it a plane, no its sinking air!

Dry air is having absolutely no affect on 96L, unless you're speaking about another feature.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I gotta downcast, 95L not going to do anything, and 96L not much either. In Vegas this coming week and better not be anything going on


What is that Aerosmith song??? Used to be an HBO show too, years ago.....

Oh, yeah, Dream On.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Bahamas


Best to keep to the Islands where the snakes will squeeze you like the best women! No venomous is a nice perk!
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Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
What do u guys think cause to me its not going to be a good week or so for the gulf of mexico,invest 96 should become Bonnie within 24hrs i predict they system almost over the lesser antilles will follow suit into the gulf then the large tropical wave off the coast of africa now where will that head, anyone got a bead on the steering patterns long term.Lets hope that Alex stirred up enough of the cooler water in that part of the gulf to limit its strength, but the flip side of the coin they certainnly don't need anymore rain in northeastern mexico or southern texas, man mother nature can suck bad.


That's what I'm a little confused about. The ECMWF seems to show another wave/disturbance following 96l in the Caribbean. I'm assuming from Africa. But it also shows a positive NAO which I thought would mean more recurves. So I'm not too sure about the steering currents.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting SLU:


Wonderful stuff on your July outlook. It rivals those issued by CSU, NOAA etc. Keep it up!


Thanks
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1787. Patrap
#1783

AND POINTS EAST
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Quoting Weather456:
I am becoming increasingly inclined to believe 96L is a threat to Texas.

I agree.
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1784. Patrap
2100 surface

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I am becoming increasingly inclined to believe 96L is a threat to Texas.

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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Baha...where abouts are you? On the Gulf or near Baha..?
Nassau, Bahamas. I'm now wondering how snakes survive hurricane landfalls. Do they swim / float?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Storm Chaser..I was about to ask about that lil' thing...circulation forming it seems...
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Quoting StormW:


Are you copying my posts? (Just kidding)
LOL. Well after looking at steering currents I see no reason why models should stay the way they are but rather move more towards the right.
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1779. Patrap
Quoting Torgen:


Looks like 95 just gets pummeled by something there in the loop. Shear and/or dry air from the west?


Most likely Northerly Shear..but a lil window appears tonight as it closes on the coast so we may see one more convective burst..

95L WV loop
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Looks like a tropical depression is imminent with 96L. I would watch the area east of the islands as well.

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1776. ackee
what will the NHC do u 8pm

A RED
B ORANNGE 40%
C TD#2
D BONNIE

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Quoting Weather456:
Visible satellite imagery indicates there is a surface circulation associated with 96L and I suspect the NHC will increase to about 50% at 8PM. Surface obs indicate the circulation is only missing west wind and I would say we are pretty darn close to TD 2.






Thanks Weather 456! Love your charts!
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1773. calder
Quoting btwntx08:


why?
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Quoting Weather456:
Visible satellite imagery indicates there is a surface circulation associated with 96L and I suspect the NHC will increase to about 50% at 8PM. Surface obs indicate the circulation is only missing west wind and I would say we are pretty darn close to TD 2.




We here in Belize are far away from the system yet but a west wind has started to pick up in the last hour witch is unusual for this time of day
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Baha...where abouts are you? On the Gulf or near Baha..?
Bahamas
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1770. bappit
Quoting StormW:


These guy's don't make sense

Can you elaborate?
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1769. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Looks like a rainy week for me :S
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Quoting Patrap:
Trouble here with Moccasins is that Katrina knocked down many a cypress Tree in the marsh west of Lake P.

And the snakes like to sun on them Big Laying down Cypress tress,

..so ya gotta beware as to those Large root systems sticking up still blocking out your view.

I almost stepped right on one in April..a BIG One.


In Zimbabwe and Botswana the puff adder likes to sun on your front porch mat where the sun hits in the morning..have to look down before you go out each day..I work as a mine consultant in "interesting" bush areas..so I watch me feet ..carefully...trained as a tracker by age 5...love catching snakes...but not to play with!
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1766. hydrus
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Soon to be code Red 95L and 96L

It is interesting what the NOGAPS model shows behind 96L and the Antilles wave...Link
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1765. Torgen
Quoting Patrap:
NOAA Atlantic Active Floaters,95L,96L,Oil Spill


Looks like 95 just gets pummeled by something there in the loop. Shear and/or dry air from the west?
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I still think models will shift more towards the right, at least that is my current thinking. After looking at PSU e-WALL forecasted steering currents, 96L going through the Yucatan channel would be a safe bet.

18z model plots



18z intensity plots on 96L

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1763. ackee
96L looks like a TD now but dont think NHC will upgrade until monday dont see 96L be big threat to the us the wave to watch is the one eastern carrb when that reach western carrbbean and beyound condtion might be ripe for major cane and more NW track Gulf state watch out
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1761. SLU
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


Wonderful stuff on your July outlook. It rivals those issued by CSU, NOAA etc. Keep it up!
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Best to know them from a slight distance, but this one was asking for a little ride to a better home so I obliged...I worked for the better part of 15 years in Africa too so fanged snakes are a bit more normal for me to deal with...but I do stay clear of spitting cobras in South Central Africa...
LOL I understand the distance part.... the few native species here are constrictors, but they go after small game, mice being fairly big for them... though there are some pretty fair-sized ones in Andros. Our yard has some relatively undeveloped areas, so from time to time we'll have a little family of them in the NW corner... haven't seen them for a while, though.

Hope I never meet a venom-spitting snake of any kind anywhere.... lol
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1759. Torgen
A wet thundering 4th of July here east of Tampa.I'm guessing no fireworks tonight! I'm a bit under the weather myself, and slept the afternoon away.

Is 95L going to affect the oil spill? I see all the chatter is about 96L; rightfully so with those forecast tracks!
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Soon to be code Red 95L and 96L

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1757. Patrap
NOAA Atlantic Active Floaters,95L,96L,Oil Spill
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Quoting StormW:


Not yet Stef. I think that may stand for Tropical Disturbance


Ah ok. So I'm not that far behind. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all
Good evening.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Visible satellite imagery indicates there is a surface circulation associated with 96L and I suspect the NHC will increase to about 50% at 8PM. Surface obs indicate the circulation is only missing west wind and I would say we are pretty darn close to TD 2.




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Quoting BahaHurican:
I've been pretty busy myself, so I thought I'd better ask while I was actually in the blog... lol

That's pretty cool w/ the snake.... we don't have many here, so I know lots of names but don't know many by sight....


Baha...where abouts are you? On the Gulf or near Baha..?
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Quoting StormW:


These guy's don't make sense


Lol. I know. See what we have as guidance! Thank goodness you and this site is here.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.