A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting StormW:


These guy's don't make sense


Lol. I know. See what we have as guidance! Thank goodness you and this site is here.
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1750. Patrap
Trouble here with Moccasins is that Katrina knocked down many a cypress Tree in the marsh west of Lake P.

And the snakes like to sun on them Big Laying down Cypress tress,

..so ya gotta beware as to those Large root systems sticking up still blocking out your view.

I almost stepped right on one in April..a BIG One.
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96L is affecting North side of Cuba to Columbia to Western Central America...she will likely be another wide storm...very CV like as Patrap stated.
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Yep I love it in Louisiana!! I'm in Canton TX on vacay but this 96L has really caught my eye in the last hour... interesting to see when this thing will be named...
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Hello 456! Nice to have you back especially with all the bickering that has been going on lately. Have your thoughts changed any on 96L?
If any thoughts changed they are probably that he is more affirmed that 96L will become a tropical depression by tomorrow.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Wow, getting a torrential downpour here in Panama City right now. I guess yesterday was our short reprieve from the rain.
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1744. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:


My money is with Patrap...



Id put a Lil on the side for the NHC too.

I usually shy away from any forecast as Im not a met in any sense of the word.

More a observer.

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UGH! Back after another boot. Trying to catch up. Good Evening 456. And all.

Storm, is 96l a depression already? I saw the T.D. on that last model chart.
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Quoting Patrap:


Moccasins I hate,,esp when crawfishing.

yikes..

BOOM!


Had one try and crawl up into my canoe once, but he though better of it when my paddle lifted him...
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What do u guys think cause to me its not going to be a good week or so for the gulf of mexico,invest 96 should become Bonnie within 24hrs i predict they system almost over the lesser antilles will follow suit into the gulf then the large tropical wave off the coast of africa now where will that head, anyone got a bead on the steering patterns long term.Lets hope that Alex stirred up enough of the cooler water in that part of the gulf to limit its strength, but the flip side of the coin they certainnly don't need anymore rain in northeastern mexico or southern texas, man mother nature can suck bad.
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Quoting Patrap:
I gonna go out on a Limb this evening for once and state that Id give the HH teal Flight Tomorrow a 60% chance of declaring "Bonnie" when they get a Fix.


My money is with Patrap...
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Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all
Evening.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
here we go again! flip floping models an such.lol
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting BahaHurican:
I've been pretty busy myself, so I thought I'd better ask while I was actually in the blog... lol

That's pretty cool w/ the snake.... we don't have many here, so I know lots of names but don't know many by sight....


Best to know them from a slight distance, but this one was asking for a little ride to a better home so I obliged...I worked for the better part of 15 years in Africa too so fanged snakes are a bit more normal for me to deal with...but I do stay clear of spitting cobras in South Central Africa...
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1734. Patrap
96L also encased in a Good overall envelope.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which one?



Of course, 96
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Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


Hello 456! Nice to have you back especially with all the bickering that has been going on lately. Have your thoughts changed any on 96L?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Homeless....a little concerned with 96L today?....


Hey Tex. Yeah just keeping an eye on it. Don't know if you've seen it or its been posted but Lake Charles said ECMWF is our model. Lol.

ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...THAT THIS WAVE BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS/ECMWF SUPPORTS THE NOTION
THAT ODDS ARE AT LEAST ON OUR SIDE...THAT IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DOES DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND BE STEERED MORE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED, BUT ALWAYS PLAN AHEAD DUE TO
VARIABILITY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN.

IF YOU DON`T LIKE TROPICAL SYSTEMS, THEN THE ECMWF MODEL IS IN
YOUR CORNER FOR NOW. THE GFS MAKES IT A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STAY
TUNED.


SO WITH THIS IN MIND...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
EVEN FRIDAY. WE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT
THE 7 DAY FORECAST ENDING NEXT SUNDAY.


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1729. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:


They don't bite us 'ndians...they're to afraid we might eat 'em...Really I love the little guys...never met a mean snake...just careful ones...and sloppy humans...


Moccasins I hate,,esp when crawfishing.

yikes..

BOOM!
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Good evening all
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Just had to leave a comment I just past the Belize Natural Energy compound and was surprised that the smoke was rising towards the east earlier this afternoon we had a 5mph wind out of the ne
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1726. JamesSA
Just checking in and see we have 96L. It is looking like Alex II already! Yikes!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If we get a clear-cut ASCAT pass later this evening that might be the determining factor on whether we get a TD today or tomorrow.


Right now we're still at 30% (it's likely to change at 8PM though). A TD today is a little far fetched, but I guess anything is possible.
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1724. Patrap
I gonna go out on a Limb this evening for once and state that Id give the HH teal Flight Tomorrow a 60% chance of declaring "Bonnie" when they get a Fix.
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Quoting Patrap:


They can be nasty buggers,..boot sleepers too


They don't bite us 'ndians...they're to afraid we might eat 'em...Really I love the little guys...never met a mean snake...just careful ones...and sloppy humans...
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De ja vue??



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting goalexgo:
This is definitely a depression at 8pm. Right through the red light.


which one?
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Sorry 'bout my hit and run..I have been ready for the move this week. That little guy was in my garage last Sept..a pygmy rattlesnake..picked him up and took him out a half mile to deeper woods and let him go..
I've been pretty busy myself, so I thought I'd better ask while I was actually in the blog... lol

That's pretty cool w/ the snake.... we don't have many here, so I know lots of names but don't know many by sight....
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This is definitely a depression at 8pm. Right through the red light.
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1717. bappit
Quoting blsealevel:
Will their be enough mosture in the GOM by the time 96L gets in their or will the dry air pull west or east come next week?

I think as 95L moves north the moisture from the south will move back in.
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Quoting StormW:


Got your back, Stef!


Counting on it. :)
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Quoting beell:
I'd go with red on 96L at 18.5N/81.5W. 96L continues to tighten up. Alex came together in the Caribbean under very expansive and strong cyclonic flow. Don't see the same situation now.

Pretty close to a TD, imo.

If we get a clear-cut ASCAT pass later this evening that might be the determining factor on whether we get a TD today or tomorrow.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1714. Patrap
I tell yas..these close in Invest systems have shown CV Like Girth and tenacity.

Also, Ive never seen them so early..

..save for 05 Cindy and 95

96L rainbow still

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Quoting IKE:
18Z NOGAPS through 72 hours....


Sorry. I'm posting later than usual today. :)
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Quoting Patrap:


I concur,..

shame it aint going to last.

I advise also to make preps early this week just in case 96L decides to be all it can be and move north.



My beautiful wife is part of an emergency react team in case of storms...so we are ready...for them to come....
Where's the best resataurant near NOLA airport..we have to pick her car up there tonight?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


This is getting more unfunny by the minute. For some reason I can't post pics or links today. Major puter problems. Ugh! Anyway the 18z NOGAPS takes what I assume to be 96l to TX/LA at 60 hours.



Hi Homeless....a little concerned with 96L today?....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1707. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Sorry 'bout my hit and run..I have been ready for the move this week. That little guy was in my garage last Sept..a pygmy rattlesnake..picked him up and took him out a half mile to deeper woods and let him go..


They can be nasty buggers,..boot sleepers too
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1706. beell
I'd go with red on 96L at 18.5N/81.5W. 96L continues to tighten up. Alex came together in the Caribbean under very expansive and strong cyclonic flow. Don't see the same situation now.

Pretty close to a TD, imo.

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Quoting Claudette1234:
GFS 18Z 72 hours



I dont said GFS developed 96L i just say move perturbation near Louisiana at 72hours is the low of 1011mb

Link


This is getting more unfunny by the minute. For some reason I can't post pics or links today. Major puter problems. Ugh! Anyway the 18z NOGAPS takes what I assume to be 96l to TX/LA at 60 hours.

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1704. fsumet
Use the Parallel GFS cause the old one is doing awful. The parallel run is similar to the ECMWF which shows near Brownsville moving west southwest after this time.

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Quoting Claudette1234:


Hey IKE,

Yes is the same track as GFS 18Z. I agree this is the possible track by the moment
Where does it take it to?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey SiestaCpl,

I've been trying to find out since u started posting here what kinda snake that is in ur avatar...



Sorry 'bout my hit and run..I have been ready for the move this week. That little guy was in my garage last Sept..a pygmy rattlesnake..picked him up and took him out a half mile to deeper woods and let him go..
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1701. bappit
96L has an upper anticyclone to its west much like Alex did when forming.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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