Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3701. kmanislander 4:02 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Hi kman! Hi there Storm. Looks like "son of 96L" trying to come to life just offshore the N coast of Honduras. This season may be one where we see many unexpected things, like how 96L has behaved so erratically to date. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3703. TampaSpin 4:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
NASA Radar Images Show How Mexico Quake Deformed Earth PASADENA, Calif. -- NASA has released the first-ever airborne radar images of the deformation in Earth's surface caused by a major earthquake -- the magnitude 7.2 temblor that rocked Mexico's state of Baja California and parts of the American Southwest on April 4. The data reveal that in the area studied, the quake moved the Calexico, Calif., region in a downward and southerly direction up to 80 centimeters (31 inches). The maps can be seen at: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/UAVSARimage20100623.html . Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3704. Hardcoreweather2010 4:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
JimCantore 95L trying to beat 96L to #Bonnie , however, t-storms NOT currently co-located near micro center south of Lafayette, LA Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

3706. stormwatcherCI 4:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I agree. Something is trying to spin up there. Thanks. I thought I was seeing things. I think this might be the more dominant coc and where 96L "might" organize a little better. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

3707. Drakoen 4:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
96L is pretty much like pre-Alex except 96L is oriented north to south due to northerly shear whereas pre-Alex was oriented east to west due to westerly shear. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3708. TampaSpin 4:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting LightningCharmer: I really felt like a geek reading this blog on my phone for the last few years. I was hiding and supressing my terrible habit. Now I know, I'm not alone. I'm out of the closet now. LOL......I have been called many things even from this blog! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3709. MiamiHurricanes09 4:08 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Very interesting scenario playing out with 96L... Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3710. kmanislander 4:08 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Looks that way. Have to agree with Drak on the Yucatan thing...someone posted this earlier, but here's what Bastardi had to say on it: MONDAY 9 AM ON THE ROAD, POST LATER Quick look at the Caribbean system indicates the mid-level center is behind the low-level center, which is near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. Not a favorable scenario for rapid development, and part of the way large-scale systems organize... rather than one tropical wave. The system is not sheared, it's just that it has different areas at different levels where it's trying to develop. In the Pacific, this takes several days. In the Atlantic, this can run out of room. Texas should still keep an eye on this. Yeah, I saw his post. 96L just took off to the NW last night while everyone, including the NHC it seems, was watching the area much further S. If the area near Honduras develops a surface low would that then become 97L ? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3712. wunderkidcayman 4:09 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
ok yeah Drakoen I can see it now but weak and just about dead Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5513

3714. MiamiHurricanes09 4:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Yeah, I saw his post. 96L just took off to the NW last night while everyone, including the NHC it seems, was watching the area much further S. If the area near Honduras develops a surface low would that then become 97L ? I assume if the NHC decides to circle the area north of Honduras it could become 97L. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3715. blsealevel 4:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: BR/NOLA Radar Looks like 95L comeing to give my area a vist don't look to bad though I am expecting lots of rain from it looks like just a tad west of Morgan City Louisisana. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

3716. LightningCharmer 4:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I assume if the NHC decides to circle the area north of Honduras it could become 97L. So this bunch of clouds or blob had two lows or will have two lows? ... one off Nicaragua, and one off the Yucatan? Interesting. Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

3717. kmanislander 4:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I assume if the NHC decides to circle the area north of Honduras it could become 97L. The circle they have now is so wide it encompasses the entire area where 96L is and the blow up near Honduras. 96L will soon travel outside the cirle to the N so then the options would be to create a second circle OR expand the existing circle so that it continues to cover both LOL Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3718. Drakoen 4:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting YourCommonSense: Morning Drak! What do you think of the AOI in the E.Caribbean? Nothing at the moment. Approaching an area of upper level convergence and low level divergence Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3719. TexasHurricane 4:15 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
So, I guess 96L isn't going to develop as good as we thought.....should we still be concerned with this one? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3720. CybrTeddy 4:16 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: So, I guess 96L isn't going to develop as good as we thought.....should we still be concerned with this one? Its doing everything pre-Alex did except its going to take a more northerly track so YES! Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280

3721. Drakoen 4:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: The circle they have now is so wide it encompasses the entire area where 96L is and the blow up near Honduras. 96L will soon travel outside the cirle to the N so then the options would be to create a second circle OR expand the existing circle so that it continues to cover both LOL Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3722. kmanislander 4:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: So, I guess 96L isn't going to develop as good as we thought.....should we still be concerned with this one? Until it is dead and gone absolutely. Don't let a fall off in organization with any tropical system lull you into a false sense of security. They can and do bounce back very quickly. Just keep up to date on what is happening with it from time to time. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3724. MiamiHurricanes09 4:18 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: The circle they have now is so wide it encompasses the entire area where 96L is and the blow up near Honduras. 96L will soon travel outside the circle to the N so then the options would be to create a second circle OR expand the existing circle so that it continues to covers both LOL LOL. I'm sure they will just expand the circle until they start thinking, "Damn, that's a big circle!" Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3725. aspectre 4:18 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
BTW, the night before last, SkyePony posted the 00Z CMC, which developed the low over the Bahamas then quickly dissipated it as the low headed toward Florida. It also tracked 95L northwestward into western Louisiana before dissipating it after landfall. And it took the the LesserAntilles low and pushed it above the GreaterAntilles toward Georgia before recurving it above the western Bahamas into northeastward track heading toward Massachusetts or eastward thereof. However the CMC took what-is-now-96L through northern Yucatan and into Texas rather than through the Yucatan-Cuba Channel. So the analogy falls apart there. Plus it developed an ITCZ wave west of WSW of CapeVerde into a deep low, which then proceeded through the LesserAntilles into the western Caribbean. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

3726. kmanislander 4:18 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary Collapsing thunderstorm. We'll see if that is the start of a downward trend. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3727. TexasHurricane 4:19 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Its doing everything pre-Alex did except its going to take a more northerly track so YES! oh ok. Just noticed it was down to 40% and doesn't look very healthy (from the picture I saw). Just wondering if it wasn't going to be able to develop or not. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3729. angiest 4:19 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: NASA Radar Images Show How Mexico Quake Deformed Earth PASADENA, Calif. -- NASA has released the first-ever airborne radar images of the deformation in Earth's surface caused by a major earthquake -- the magnitude 7.2 temblor that rocked Mexico's state of Baja California and parts of the American Southwest on April 4. The data reveal that in the area studied, the quake moved the Calexico, Calif., region in a downward and southerly direction up to 80 centimeters (31 inches). The maps can be seen at: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/UAVSARimage20100623.html . 2.5 feet of motion (mostly horizontal in that area) isn't a whole lot. It is believed by some seismologists that the San Andreas proper north of the border may have up to 30 feet of motion built up in it. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake involved up to 20 feet of movement. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

3730. Abacosurf 4:19 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Looks like the outflow boundary from the southern cluster is interacting with the northern cluster. 42056 is SSE at 25-31knts. Looks like a new center is forming on 85W and 19N Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 911

3731. MiamiHurricanes09 4:19 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3732. kmanislander 4:20 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Although I don't see an outflow boundary in this image. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3733. Drakoen 4:20 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Collapsing thunderstorm. We'll see if that is the start of a downward trend. Yea. I would focus more on the area around the Yucatan Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3734. FatPenguin 4:20 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
is there some rotation just off the NE tip of the Yucatan? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 307

3735. bwi 4:20 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
I think the blob at about 19n 86w is worth watching. Near those weird pressure falls last night. Calm winds now along Yucatan coast, strong SSE wind at 20n 85w. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

3736. IKE 4:21 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
My amateur guess is...they'll lower the pct. on 96L further on the next TWO and 95L looks near land...close to death.... I'll go w/a 20-30% chance on 96L. I'd say 20%, but I don't think the NHC will.... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

3737. Chicklit 4:21 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Hi everybody. Looks like shape shifting going on in the WCaribbean. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

3738. Bordonaro 4:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Collapsing thunderstorm. We'll see if that is the start of a downward trend. Nah, 96L is an area of Lower pressure caused by very warm temps, very high SST's & gradually lowering pressures in the area. This will go on until a TD develops or the pressures rise in the W Caribbean. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3740. Drakoen 4:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Although I don't see an outflow boundary in this image. Run this loop. It is somewhat obscured by mid leve cloudiness but you can see it eject out of the blob. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3741. StormSurgeon 4:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary Noticed that a while ago, Couple of little engines down there that stall out before they can get going. Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

3742. lavinia 4:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
On the NHC satellite page, why are there so many different views? Vis and WV are pretty obvious, but do the other ones (shortwave, funktop, rainbow etc) show different aspects? Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I've been wondering about this for a while and haven't found an answer. Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 216

3743. MiamiHurricanes09 4:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Run this loop. It is somewhat obscured by mid leve cloudiness but you can see it eject out of the blob. Are you talking about the northern and eastern quadrant, because that's where I see them. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3744. BenBIogger 4:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Mid-Level Shear. Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

3745. TexasHurricane 4:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
What are the models suggesting with 96L today? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

3746. Drakoen 4:25 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Are you talking about the northern and eastern quadrant, because that's where I see them. Yes Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3748. kmanislander 4:25 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Run this loop. It is somewhat obscured by mid leve cloudiness but you can see it eject out of the blob. The one that takes off to the N very quickly ?. It is partially obscured so the still would not pick it up. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3749. HideawayOnTheGulf 4:25 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Hey Everyone. Our local Houston news (CHannel 2) is saying that 96L could be at the Texas coast on Wednesday (day after tomorrow) as Bonnie. Does that sound reasonable to be here so soon? I'm located on the coast near Freeport and was curious. Thanks! Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

3751. Chicklit 4:25 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
ShortWaveLoopWCarib ShearMap is down but SST's are showing 30C. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

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