A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1701. bappit
96L has an upper anticyclone to its west much like Alex did when forming.
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Quoting IKE:
18Z NOGAPS through 72 hours....


Hey IKE,

Yes is the same track as GFS 18Z. I agree this is the possible track by the moment
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1698. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:


First time for me Patrap, wife has been here a couple of weeks...seems like home! Wife's famly is 1st gen French and Indian....and me a Indian from the upper midwest...so I like the people here...seems like home.


Well were like a good Gumbo down here,..all the more mix is best for the pot.

Thats a fine heritage too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
1696. Patrap
Also..speaking as a Portlight rep in this post.

Please check out the Portlight blog as we had a request from a Mexican Blogger suffering from Alex's Impact and were sending water ASAP to their requested area thru some contacts.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would say that there is a low at the surface, it just remains broad and weak.

I tend to agree one may be developing. 96L is looking very healthy.
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Quoting Patrap:


Sure can feel that dry air..it moved in here on the S shore after that Morning round of Storms.
Sweet out at the moment.


Welcome to Louisiana


First time for me Patrap, wife has been here a couple of weeks...seems like home! Wife's famly is 1st gen French and Indian....and me a Indian from the upper midwest...so I like the people here...seems like home.
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The history of the Western Caribbean is these systems are slow to organize unless something extraordinary comes into play. AL 96 is a case in point.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Not yet at the surface. G.ood vorticity at 700-850MB, a mid level circulation will slowly translate to the surface over the next 24 hrs or so. As soon as the NHC discovers a surface L, we will have TD 2 for sure :o)
I would say that there is a low at the surface, it just remains broad and weak.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1691. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:
Just left FL West coast and the drop to dry air here North of NOLA is refreshing...


I concur,..

shame it aint going to last.

I advise also to make preps early this week just in case 96L decides to be all it can be and move north.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
96L looks to follow ALex's path, at least thats what local media is saying in SE TX, no worry and enjoy your week.
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Will their be enough mosture in the GOM by the time 96L gets in their or will the dry air pull west or east come next week?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1688. IKE
18Z NOGAPS through 72 hours....
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I agree 96L looks much better than this p.m., but still don't see NHC taking it over 50% on this discussion....
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
soo..... 96L DOESN'T have a circulation?? hmmm....

Not yet at the surface. Good vorticity at 700-850MB, a mid level circulation will slowly translate to the surface over the next 24 hrs or so. As soon as the NHC discovers a surface L, we will have TD 2 for sure :o)
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Just left FL West coast and the drop to dry air here North of NOLA is refreshing...
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1683. bappit
Quoting EricSFL:


Based on what I have seen, Gov. Jindal has been on top of the Oil Spill situation since day one. At least much more than Mr. Independent Charlie Christ has.

Yah, Jindal has national ambitions. He was down on the coast for every photo op he could get while the legislature was in session, but ... this is strictly off topic.
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1682. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Hi from near New Orleans...or more particularly Hammond..just moved for Wife's job from Sarasota Fl...and 95 if following us..LOL..its small and kind of cute so far..hope it stays that way...that dry slot can really be felt up here.


Sure can feel that dry air..it moved in here on the S shore after that Morning round of Storms.
Sweet out at the moment.


Welcome to Louisiana
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
Hey SiestaCpl,

I've been trying to find out since u started posting here what kinda snake that is in ur avatar...

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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
soo..... 96L DOESN'T have a circulation?? hmmm....
96L does have a circulation, it just isn't closed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Looks like 96L has someplace to dress for and in a hurry...wrapping up quickly.
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100 degrees and 10% humidity, ah refreshing heat in the desert
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1677. Patrap
Geezum,..

Now Politics.

I need another bev...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Reno 911 a little ways off Pat


Just like yer post's



LOL


Boom,bada BING.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
soo..... 96L DOESN'T have a circulation?? hmmm....
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1675. xcool
96L GET NAME SOON.
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Reno 911 a little ways off Pat
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we have some sort of rotation over southern Florida. any ideas?
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Quoting Patrap:


On the move..yep


Hi from near New Orleans...or more particularly Hammond..just moved for Wife's job from Sarasota Fl...and 95 if following us..LOL..its small and kind of cute so far..hope it stays that way...that dry slot can really be felt up here.
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1671. Patrap
I'll alert RENO 911
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
Quoting medicroc:

Red
I see absolutely no reason for 95L to be upgraded furthermore than the current percentage it has.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I gotta downcast, 95L not going to do anything, and 96L not much either. In Vegas this coming week and better not be anything going on
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re. 1634 AstroHurricane....

did u post any info about it on ur blog? How did things go? (I wasn't able to be in the blog during the "crucial" moments.... :o(

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1667. EricSFL
Quoting bappit:

Good ole Jindal. Say what?

Hmmmm, someone was subtly promoting their personal business on here a couple days ago. Is this a sneak political ad?


Based on what I have seen, Gov. Jindal has been on top of the Oil Spill situation since day one. At least much more than Mr. Independent Charlie Christ has.
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1666. Patrap
96L Big Bada Boom Rainbow loop

Click the MSLP box for steering
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
1665. xcool
here goooooooooo 96L BIG MOM
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GFS 18Z 72 hours



I dont said GFS developed 96L i just say move perturbation near Louisiana at 72hours is the low of 1011mb

Link
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Quoting sarahjola:
why is 95l not firing up convection? tia:)

Link
Lots of dry air
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1662. Patrap
Quoting bappit:

Looks like it is headed north at a steady pace.


On the move..yep
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
96L looking very impressive on satellite imagery. If it wasn't for the lack of a well-defined surface circulation I would expect to see red at 8PM. With all factors in place, 96L should be given a 50% chance at 8PM on the TWO, imo.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
CIMSS took 95L off, though it's still on ATCF and the Navy site so idk why.
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1658. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
TDWR High Definition Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.60 Degree Elevation Range 225 NMI


Looks like it is headed north at a steady pace.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am sorry all i guss i did yet thing out of hand a little but am sorry so what this forget it and get back too the weather


That's a wonderful idea. Too many important things on the horizon that need to be monitored.
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I aint got tiiiiime for all this, going to Vegas on the 6th and returning on the 9th
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1655. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1653. Patrap
TDWR High Definition Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.60 Degree Elevation Range 225 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128333
Quoting sarahjola:
why is 95l not firing up convection? tia:)



95L is under a lot of dry air
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Use ur tools, folks.

Don't quote inflammatory / derogatory remarks. Use [-], [!] and [ignore].

DO post interesting links, imagery and articles that relate to the wx events being discussed.

Don't kill off all the crows in the world by making wild unsubstantiated (to replace a shorter word lol) guesses about the wx; use ur tools!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.