Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting soflamac:


wee bit of revisionist history here. they took prayer out of school because it does not belong there. Are you so myopic that you can't even acknowledge that other religions exist? And if you can see beyond your nose, which religion's version of prayer would you allow?

"One Nation, under God" enough said

Quoting kmanislander:


Lots more to come.

Agreed.

cyclogenisis occurring x 2...i believe in the next 24 hours we could have double trouble.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AOI #1 and 96L



AOI #2

what about that off the E coast of FL

Quoting Orcasystems:


Good morning... its a wonderful day :)
KOG is being good... its a long weekend... there is stuff to watch in the GOM.. and we have T times. What more could you ask for.

nothing more nothing less

Quoting Tazmanian:


what about that off the E coast of FL

That would be "AOI #1".

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and to set the record straight

plywoodstatenative
has been a blogger for over 4 yrs now

theplywoodstate
is a new ly created handle by a former blogger thats trying to decoy himself around a permanent ban under a different username

If you want proof, check the profiles:

plywoodstatenative has blog entries going back to 2007, ThePlywoodState has NOTHING. There's your answer.

Quoting Hhunter:


cyclogenisis occurring x 2...i believe in the next 24 hours we could have double trouble.

Possible even triple trouble. The area east of Florida looks suspicious for some cyclogenesis.

Sorry guys, I am letting these nonpatirotic/misinformed bloggers get to me today. I am getting back on track with the tropics. Sorry again

20% development chance appears to be the magic number to be classified as an invest.

Quoting kmanislander:
Here comes the heavy stuff from the SE. This image only a few minutes old.

So much for our holiday Monday, huh kman.

Quoting stormpetrol:

Yep, really squally here thats for sure, my brother just called and told me a tree just missed his car by about 5 feet when it fell across the road, not looking good!

I had a small tree fall down in my yard last night, and damage the fence. That wind was a good 35-40mph in gusts.

If the wave at 40W can battle off the SAL and gain some Lat I believe it has a chance to develop. Shear is reasonable, temps are warm and it has some decent convections.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That would be "AOI #1".

then where 2 and 3

Happy 4th July to All the Americans From Scotland... Hope You have a Cracking Day :)

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End is POURING and very windy indeed.

Just had a very heavy downpour in West Bay. I was showering my dog when it started - didn't need the hosepipe!

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
POOF

So what exactly does this have to do with the Tropical weather in the atlantic?

absolutely nothing...but then again neither did the original comment and you chose not to flag that...I wonder why?

Quoting StadiumEffect:
So much for our holiday Monday, huh kman. I had a small tree fall down in my yard last night, and damage the fence. That wind was a good 35-40mph in gusts.

Yeah, golf game cancelled again this morning. Course underwater.

Quoting Hhunter:


cyclogenisis occurring x 2...i believe in the next 24 hours we could have double trouble.

I wouldn;t be surprised there could be 3 or 4 areas of interest

yea maybe...but i am super impressed with the more classic atlantic wave near the islands. Man very nice presentation..perfectly positioned to run the gauntlet..

Quoting extreme236:
20% development chance appears to be the magic number to be classified as an invest.

94L got labeled when it had a 10% chance. If you don't remember 94L it was the wave that interacted with an ULL north of the greater Antilles. To me it just looks like they label an invest as soon as it goes yellow.

Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... I'm not sure that's the "sea breeze" I'm looking for. ;)

There you go... putting stipulations on it, your as bad a Zoo. I want rain really bad... umm not that much rain. She wanted it colder.. we sent you snow... then everyone complained it was to cold.

There is no making some people happy :)

Quoting Michaelkaii10:
Happy 4th July to All the Americans From Scotland... Hope You have a Cracking Day :)

Hey Michael... how's the weather in Scotland atm,,, cold and wet?

Quoting Tazmanian:



then where 2 and 3

AOI #1 is east of Florida. Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean. And AOI #2 is east of the lesser Antilles.

Quoting kmanislander:
1500 UTC vort map. The area just East of the islands looking very impressive. This will likely be an invest soon IMO

Agreed.
Wow. I take a 3 day break and return to a very active North Atlantic.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AOI #1 is east of Florida. Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean. And AOI #2 is east of the lesser Antilles.

oh ok cool

Quoting kmanislander:


Lots more to come.

Agreed.

Quoting XL:

Just had a very heavy downpour in West Bay. I was showering my dog when it started - didn't need the hosepipe!

It has been basically pouring up here since mid-day yesterday other than maybe a 1/2 hour here and there. Weather stations up here clocked 46 mph winds.

From Crown Weather:

Area Two: Invest 96-L in the western Caribbean, looks likely to develop this week: Of much more interest is Invest 96-L located over the western Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions look like they will be favorable for development over the next several days. The entire satellite presentation of Invest 96-L is better than what it was 24 hours ago which means it is organizing. This system and its overall setup synoptically and the environment it is in is very similar to Hurricane Alex. The European model forecasts development and forecasts it to track inland into eastern or northeastern Mexico by the end of the week. The Canadian model also forecasts development from Invest 96-L and ultimately forecasts a landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border around Thursday. So, yes this looks like an Alex Redux. This system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today through Monday.

My take is that this will be our next named storm and I suspect that we will have a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Bonnie by or before Tuesday. Strengthening into a hurricane is quite possible as it tracks west-northwest to northwest across the southern and western Gulf of Mexico during Wednesday and Thursday. I do not believe the Canadian model’s forecast of a landfall near the Texas-Louisiana state line and favor a track very similar to Alex and think a final landfall area between Brownsville, Texas and Tampico, Mexico is very possible during Friday.

All interests in south Texas and northeastern Mexico should pay very close attention to the progress of this system.

Area Three: Off of the coast of Florida: Development may occur off of the coast of Florida this week just north of the Bahamas along the tail end of a frontal system. The combination of very warm ocean temperatures and a stalled front with area of low pressure spells potential trouble. Right now, I put the odds of it happening as low to medium. Right now, it is primarily non-tropical in nature and surface pressures off of the US southeast coast are fairly high and this would make it very hard for this system to acquire tropical characteristics. This low pressure system, tropical or non-tropical, will track northward towards the eastern North Carolina coast later this week.

Area Four: Tropical Wave Approaching The Caribbean: Another tropical wave is expected to enter the Caribbean over the next day or two and this wave needs to be monitored very closely. Over the next three or four days, I do not expect development from it, however, when it gets into the northwest Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico next weekend (July 10-11), it will be moving into an area of building heat and moisture. To be perfect blunt, area 4 poses the greatest threat to the United States Gulf Coast as the pattern will be very favorable for another storm in the Gulf of Mexico during the week of July 12th. So, I urge everyone to keep a very close eye on this tropical wave.

The overall weather pattern across the eastern United States and into the tropics is changing as a large ridge of high pressure is shifting north. This will leave the Gulf of Mexico open for upward motion, building heat and building moisture. This weather pattern also means that troughs of low pressure out in the western Atlantic will try to dig down and then be kicked out leaving pieces of energy behind to the east of Florida. These pieces of energy either track westward into the Gulf of Mexico and then develop or they remain over the southwest Atlantic and ventilate the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. This is the type of weather pattern that the tropical wave now approaching the Caribbean will be moving into in about 7 days; therefore, environmental conditions may be very favorable for development. If that isn’t enough, the Madden Julian Oscillation appears to be stuck in a upward motion phase across the Atlantic and this says to me that there is a lot of potential with this particular tropical wave. Obviously, I will be watching this tropical wave very closely and will keep you all updated.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That would be "AOI #1".

Hello good morning!! and happy 4th of July,we are located in Miami and looking at the disturbance East of Florida,what is "AOI #1".means?,some of the models have this mess going east over South Florida,like a tropical disturbance? any comments? thanks!!!!!

15 N 59 W

This wave is really starting to amplify.

I don't mind people saying Happy Birthday to our southern neighbours, just as they did to us on July 1st.

If they want to add politics, religion or anything else to it.. then I guess they will just be added to the iggy list.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Michael... how's the weather in Scotland atm,,, cold and wet?

its Been Soaking Wet and Rather Windy God a Though a woke up to a Tropical storm that How bad it Was

Looks like Owen Roberts airport in Grand Cayman got its weather station knocked out. It isn't reporting pressure, visibility, or humidity. The last report was 28 minutes ago and it reported a wind gust of 33 mph.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AOI #1 is east of Florida. Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean. And AOI #2 is east of the lesser Antilles.

AOI #1... Just needed a few days to detach from the front.

the tropics are really active.. and it's only early JULY..

if it wasn't for shear..

Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello good morning!! and happy 4th of July,we are located in Miami and looking at the disturbance East of Florida,what is "AOI #1".means?,some of the models have this mess going east over South Florida,like a tropical disturbance? any comments? thanks!!!!!

Area of Interest #1

yes kman and that is one that bares great attention by you and yours.

385 is a good example.. poof

Quoting kmanislander:
15 N 59 W

This wave is really starting to amplify.

This little (actually big) guy is going to be a big problem when it gets into the central Caribbean.

Parallel 12Z GFS @ 90 hours...

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Area of Interest #1

Thank you!!!!!!!!!

Quoting Murko:
TX, so much for free speech. Why the hell would I be patriotic about America??

Because we invented your sunglasses...

Do us a favor, then. Do not benefit from the US in any way. You can start by not using any of our satellite information for tropical systems, invented/designed/funded by us. Some of you islanders would be constantly surprised by TCs without the US and European satellites.

Quoting Drakoen:
Lots of lower level convergence and upper divergence associated with 96L but surface pressures are not falling.

This things identical to 93L so far.

Quoting IKE:
Parallel 12Z GFS @ 90 hours...

Paralell being rather conservative with development. It didn't develop Alex, and isn't doing anything with 96L. It's starting to remind me of the UKMET.

Quoting Michaelkaii10:



its Been Soaking Wet and Rather Windy God a Though a woke up to a Tropical storm that How bad it Was

Typical Scottish weather then.... I just found out my uncle in Blackpool past away from heart attack. His cleaner found him. Funeral is on Tuesday, then it's my other Uncle and Aunties 50th wedding anniversary on Friday, he was meant to be guest of honor. A sad time in our Clan at the moment.

where has it ever been stated that the only praying allowed was to be christainity. I grew up to believe that prayer was your way of of connection with your religion regardless of what faith.