Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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4102. Kaydalenascar 7:08 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
A site someone posted yesterday has all the models plots on it and they are showing a more consensus of Corpus Christi up to the west end of Galveston. Except for one that takes it into LA. Not sure if these are accurate. LINK Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13

4103. RuBRNded 7:08 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting IKE: Defuniak Springs,FL. I just moved from Crestview 6 months ago, aka Lower Alabama Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

4104. Patrap 7:08 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111387

4105. 757weather 7:09 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Looks like its a good thing 95L is about to make landfall, because it looks to be really coming together now. Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

4106. TampaSpin 7:09 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
I would put the most dominiate COC if there was one on 96L near ... 20N 85W....that is what i am seeing! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4107. portcharlotte 7:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
I think the ECMWF is stuck on a southern track and eventually will lose credibility Quoting IKE: Looks like it comes in in extreme SE/southern Texas...moisture to it's north. Several other waves on that run. Nothing serious. Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703

4108. Patrap 7:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
96L 18Z Model Plots Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111387

4109. TampaSpin 7:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Again i can't wait for 2 days after Labor Day!.....THINK WHAT THAT MEANS!!....ROFLMAO Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4110. MiamiHurricanes09 7:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: I would put the most dominiate COC if there was one on 96L near ... 20N 85W....that is what i am seeing! You are too south and east. 217N, 868W, Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4111. Patrap 7:11 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
snicker Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111387

4112. AllStar17 7:12 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: I would put the most dominiate COC if there was one on 96L near ... 20N 85W....that is what i am seeing! I agree. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

4113. IKE 7:12 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Topography: Is it showing the CV storm? Nope. Quoting RuBRNded: I just moved from Crestview 6 months ago, aka Lower Alabama Hello! Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

4114. jlp09550 7:12 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Pressure is dropping slowly here. Not sure if it's a cause of 95L, but I am very close to it. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

4115. Progster 7:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
no TS but respectable enuf: Link Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

4116. TexasHurricane 7:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Seems the blog is kinda slow today....I guess there isn't as much excitement as we thought there might be today over 96L. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4117. DoubleAction 7:15 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Albeit very small, 95L has all the characteristics to be called a tropical depression as we speak, clearly has a closed surface circulation and peak sustained winds are at least 26knots per buoy readings right now. Member Since: August 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 159

4118. TampaSpin 7:16 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: You are too south and east. 217N, 868W, Well as you say i am wrong......I will say you are wrong! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4119. Seamule1 7:16 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
actually....95L is on a NE track, if you believe the radar.... coming into Mobile...a really gully-washer... 96L will be a depression within the next 48-72 hours....landfall northern gulf coast. cat 2 or higher imho Member Since: June 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 27

4120. MiamiHurricanes09 7:16 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DoubleAction: Albeit very small, 95L has all the characteristics to be called a tropical depression as we speak, clearly has a closed surface circulation and peak sustained winds are at least 26knots per buoy readings right now. Still attached to a frontal boundary. No tropical depression or subtropical depression. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4121. StormSurgeon 7:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
We in mobile prefer the designation "South Alabama" because we ain't "lower" than nobody. Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

4122. MiamiHurricanes09 7:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Well as you say i am wrong......I will say you are wrong! Perfectly fine. I'm just pointing out what the ATCF site says. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4123. truecajun 7:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting AllStar17: I agree. looks like he's headed for st. mary parish and iberia parish for landfall. i'd like to be on the bay at cypremort point right now. Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

4124. SAINTHURRIFAN 7:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
actually tampa its 3 days after labor world champs open the nfl season in the dome on that thursday so its 3 days lol Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668

4125. extreme236 7:18 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DoubleAction: Albeit very small, 95L has all the characteristics to be called a tropical depression as we speak, clearly has a closed surface circulation and peak sustained winds are at least 26knots per buoy readings right now. Not sufficient convective organization. T numbers are too low. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

4126. Hurricanes101 7:19 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting extreme236: Not sufficient convective organization. T numbers are too low. Its also still attached to the front lol but I am seeing signs that finally that may be changing, but it may run out of time now if it moves westward along the coast and doesn't go inland, it may have a shot Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4127. homelesswanderer 7:19 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

4128. TampaSpin 7:20 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN: actually tampa its 3 days after labor world champs open the nfl season in the dome on that thursday so its 3 days lol I want Grade School to start! That was my point......LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4129. Hardcoreweather2010 7:21 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting extreme236: Not sufficient convective organization. T numbers are too low. Same T numbers that 96L has had for the last 24 hours :) Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

4130. truecajun 7:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: I want Grade School to start! That was my point......LOL 1 month and 3 days counting!!!!!!!!! Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

4131. TexasHurricane 7:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Hi Homeless... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4132. MiamiHurricanes09 7:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: Same T number that 96L has had for the last 24 hours :) No one said 96L is a tropical depression. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4134. jlp09550 7:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Its also still attached to the front lol but I am seeing signs that finally that may be changing, but it may run out of time now if it moves westward along the coast and doesn't go inland, it may have a shot Would it even be possible to move westward? Looks like there really isn't enough real estate left.. or steering.. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

4135. extreme236 7:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: Same T number that 96L has had for the last 24 hours :) And that number is too low. What's your point? Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

4136. truecajun 7:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting truecajun: 1 month and 3 days counting!!!!!!!!! except i must say that i am very much enjoying not have to spend 1 hr in the car for morning carpool and another in the car for afternoon carpool. Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

4137. homelesswanderer 7:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Hi Homeless... Hey Tex. :) Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

4138. TampaSpin 7:25 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting truecajun: 1 month and 3 days counting!!!!!!!!! I'm not sure this blog can surive that long... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
current conditions at my location in ontario mainly sunny Temperature: 92.8°F Dewpoint: 73.8°F Humidity: 54 % Wind: WSW 15 gust 22 mph Humidex: 112 Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40495

4140. Hardcoreweather2010 7:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
JimCantore Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD. Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

4141. TexasHurricane 7:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Is 96L looking any better than it was this morning? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4142. Patrap 7:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: JimCantore Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD. Dats cuz he's a Lurker.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111387

4143. MiamiHurricanes09 7:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: JimCantore Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD. Systems don't develop a "TD". And for probably the 10th time, 95L is attached to a frontal boundary. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4144. PanhandleChuck 7:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: NEXRAD Radar New Orleans, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI Dats cuz he's a Lurker.. LMAO Pat, I really believe that he does check this blog out occasionally. Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

4145. jlp09550 7:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

4146. SevereHurricane 7:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Again i can't wait for 2 days after Labor Day!.....THINK WHAT THAT MEANS!!....ROFLMAO LOL! 2nd that! Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

4148. Patrap 7:29 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
96L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111387

4149. extreme236 7:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Convection with 95L looks pathetic. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

4150. leo305 7:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Jim Cantore is one of the best mets I've seen.. btw.. yea I agree with him.. Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

4151. PanhandleChuck 7:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Sure looks like 96L wants to shoot the channel Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

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