A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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700. txjac
Quoting Tazmanian:
95L is not going any where but poof


I'm curious as well. We have had lots of rain here in Houston and I was wondering if we will have more when 95L moves west? Or if it "poofs" as you say does that mean the rain will go away too? I dont think that we are saying that it's going to TS, TD or hurricane.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hmmm. Theplywoodstatenative has a blog entry from 2006.

Theplywoodstate has a first blog entry from 10 minutes ago. Which I won't link to. Hmmmmm.



look what it says on top of his blog the Theplywoodstate blog that is what dos that tell you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
Quoting tropicfreak:


Is this the one models have been developing off the coast of SC?


Previously the Jul 3 12Z model cycle developed in that area and moved a system towards the SE coast. Since then the models have backed off and no longer show that, but things could change.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

And how do you know this ? please explain it to the rest of the class. Thanks


James,

Dry air entrainment will eventually cause the thunderstorm activity over the LLC to collapse.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

And how do you know this ? please explain it to the rest of the class. Thanks


Take a look at water vapor. There is a lot of dry air surrounding the system. Dry air entrainment will cause the convection to collapse.
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Quoting Levi32:


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN


Your late. :)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Convection on the increase during the daytime and surface pressures falling when they typically should be rising. Something going on at the surface.



We could see them bump it up to 50% this evening at 8pm advisory based on how well this is organizing, I think this is the one that will become bonnie. what do you all think?
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

And how do you know this ? please explain it to the rest of the class. Thanks
95L is attached to an Upper Level Low (ULL). Currently a cold core system. The convection increases early afternoon, and the dry air to the NE of the system, 15 kts of wind shear and loss of daytime heating will cause the convection to collapse in a few hours.
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Impressive -80˚C cloud tops can be noted.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

And how do you know this ? please explain it to the rest of the class. Thanks


VERY DRY air and light shear

I guess that's why he thinks it's going to collapse
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
we have a 10/30% on the TWO yellow and orange 96L is doing good
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
The carib has been upgraded from 10% to 30 - 50% for development in the next 48 hrs



its olny at 30% right now may be 50% tonight or monday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
95L is not going any where but poof
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
The carib has been upgraded from 10% to 30 - 50% for development in the next 48 hrs
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Quoting muddertracker:
Looks like Mexico/Texas might have to take another one for the team. I'm not sure if we can do this all season long, though. Where's all the SHEER?

Wind shear has taken an early vacation to the areas north of 32N. Shear was expected to slow the start of the season down several weeks, wrong answer!!
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Quoting StormW:
The convection on 95L is going to collapse.

And how do you know this ? please explain it to the rest of the class. Thanks
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting StormW:
The convection on 95L is going to collapse.



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recent ASCAT area east of Florida/Bahamas



Click on image to view original size in a new window





Is this the one models have been developing off the coast of SC?
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Good answer Sir StormW
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L could easily get a subtropical tag before tomorrow

Ditto Taz..
nothing but a L on the map.
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95L the little system that ya'll want to ignore

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
96L is now ORANGE and 95L still yellow
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is looking much better and if convection keeps on increasing it will be code orange at 7pm. You don't ignore systems in your backyard



plzs put 95L too rest and move on its overe for 95L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
96L firing some impressive cloud tops in the western quadrant.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting xcool:
hydrus .yeah very busy August September
I posted this earlier, but its worth mentioning again. Look at the areas of low pressure on the GEM. It looks like things are going to be active in a hurry if it were to pan out....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19497
Quoting msgambler:
granny, as long as AL doesn't show up in your text your alright
If the pattern stays like this all season-- everyone will get thier threat sooner or later!
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95L is looking much better and if convection keeps on increasing it will be code orange at 7pm. You don't ignore systems in your backyard
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Wonder if 96L is moving more North north west going to the weakness in the GOM,and may go thru eastern Cuba and not the Yucatan channel,the satellite presentation have the clouds moving more NNW? any comments on this obeservation?
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granny, as long as AL doesn't show up in your text your alright
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Forget the popcorn.Its time for something a lil stronger.Chips and Dip and a cold Dr. Pepper..........LOL!!!!!!Boy it is getting its act together isnt it.Storm if it follows the steering pattern could it then be a threat to Louisiana/Ms?

Looks like a Mexio or South Central TX storm. For the moment,, LA/MS/AL appear to be safe :o)!!
Check out the latest Caribbean AVN Infared link below. It is doing very well this afternoon!!

Link
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Admin now on the blog removing comments unrelated to the current topic. Now please, enough.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Recent ASCAT area east of Florida/Bahamas



Click on image to view original size in a new window



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Quoting leo305:
a swirl seems to have formed west/wnw of jamaica

moving NW/NNW at the moment.. it was a mid level spin, but it looks closer to the surface now

Caribbean Region AVN Infared Satellite link:
Link
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L could easily get a subtropical tag before tomorrow



not a ch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
Quoting btwntx08:

i just did that too

I did as well, his earlier comment in spanish was completely uncalled for
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95L could easily get a subtropical tag before tomorrow
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
654. xcool
jfv stuff get old fasttt
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Quoting btwntx08:

i just did that too



thank you



evere plz do the same thing has well re port him the more we re port him the better ch JFV being out of here today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
Quoting StormW:
Forget 95L.


Are you concerned with 96L?
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Forget the popcorn.Its time for something a lil stronger.Chips and Dip and a cold Dr. Pepper..........LOL!!!!!!Boy it is getting its act together isnt it.Storm if it follows the steering pattern could it then be a threat to Louisiana/Ms?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.