A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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The images from the LSU site are creating havoc on my internet connection

Every other page loads fine for me and when there are no LSU images on the page here it loads fine as well

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831
Quoting xcool:
take models throw it out the door


ok well do
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:


Hasta ahi llegastes, xxxxxxxxxx, ya lo veras, ^_^.

reported... no need for language like that
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597. xcool
IS JFV HERE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Surprising....

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595. xcool
old dirty 95L SHOWS LIFE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting ThePlywoodState:


Perdon, was that a threat, analfabeto? Ooooooohhhhhhhhh, you are certainly asking for it now, Keeps. Oh, admin................



dont start it JFV
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Quoting Drakoen:
orange

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
orange
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
591. xcool
take models throw it out the door
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
GOM disturbance blew up since last night..or at least a little.

Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
After all the HWRF takes 96L to Mexico.

HWRF 12z 120 hours



Alex part 2
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, GFDL kills 96L in 12 hours. It did the same thing with 93L for those who remember.


Just before that it had winds of TS strength, they were probably far away from the inner nest so thats probably why it disipated it.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11223
guys.... Alex absolutely drained the gulf of mexico of warm waters... 96L may develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm... but it will not measure up to Alex.... unless it stalls or something and lets the heat content build back up
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422
Surface pressures are falling...Winds corresponding as well.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
After all the HWRF takes 96L to Mexico.

HWRF 12z 120 hours

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582. IKE
Latest/new discussion on 96L...

"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
77W-86W."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico


As of Sun 04 Jul 2010 17:00:02Z
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.
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LOL, GFDL kills 96L in 12 hours. It did the same thing with 93L for those who remember.
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Hey Storm, have a look at this. Tell me that the system off our coast is helping or not to produce this:

http://english.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=1 5&scale=0.125&noclutter=1&ID=AMX&type=NCR&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&sc ale=0.125¢erx=192¢ery=784&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_s tns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1
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Quoting extreme236:


Eh, I think it could get somewhat stronger than that. Its all going to depend on how fast it organizes. If it becomes a tropical depression tomorrow, I easily see it being a moderate tropical storm.
That's true, but it doesn't have a surface low level circulation, so unless it organizes quite rapidly and develops a closed surface low by tomorrow it is unlikely it will be a TD tomorrow. Either way, I do think that 96L will eventually become Bonnie, but not in the next 30 hours.
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Quoting skepticall2:


Oh Houston doesn't need anymore right now. Katy still may be under water.

Further down the coast, putting the heaviest rain to your west, that would be ideal, giving S Central TX into N & NE TX a good dose of rain.

From the "Ghost of Alex" & the weak surface boundary the Arlington Municipal AP has 4.70" of rain, from 6-28 through 7-3-10. We need another 2-4" to catch up to "normal" for the year.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Orcas, when he hijacks my photo and impersonates me he is worth getting stomped on.


Oh I didn't say he didn't deserve it :)
I just said he isn't worth it.
He is just like the runt of the litter trying to get attention.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Orcas, when he hijacks my photo and impersonates me he is worth getting stomped on.



come on now not worth geting a banned
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568. xcool
Crawls .really no clue
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.9 82.9 290./11.1
6 16.5 83.0 357./ 6.7
12 17.0 86.2 279./31.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11223
I think the CMC is moving 96L too fast. The ECMWF on the 00z run didn't have it making landfall till around 144 hours.
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Quoting Crawls:
96L - is this going to be a repeat Alex track?
I'm thinking of a more northerly track, instead of a Mexico landfall this one might threat Texas. Also, 96L will be weaker than Alex because Alex drained the Gulf of heat content.
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Quoting xcool:
happy 4 july all
Same to you buddy.
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Quoting TankHead93:
That was too funny, lmao! don't worry StormW, it's a sign of respect ;), right Orcasystems?


He knows.. just two old sailors poking fun :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


The SHIP was the most aggressive with Alex, as it is again with 96. BUT, it was the only one that was right with the strength.


oh
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The most I could see 96L at the point in time is a 40mph TS and I'm being aggressive.


Eh, I think it could get somewhat stronger than that. Its all going to depend on how fast it organizes. If it becomes a tropical depression tomorrow, I easily see it being a moderate tropical storm.
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Orcas, when he hijacks my photo and impersonates me he is worth getting stomped on.
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Quoting StormW:


LMAO!
That was too funny, lmao! don't worry StormW, it's a sign of respect ;), right Orcasystems?
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Hi Everyone...Happy July 4th....
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96L - is this going to be a repeat Alex track?
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Trouble is a lurking in 96L,..for somebody's coast.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



too me thats a little too fast


The SHIP was the most aggressive with Alex, as it is again with 96. BUT, it was the only one that was right with the strength.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF takes 96L through the northernmost tip of the Yucatan as a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane and then to Texas. On its way to Texas it remains as a weak system in the GOM because of low TCHP.


do we most go overe the TCHP thing how many times have i been trying too say it
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Quoting extreme236:


That's crazy.
The most I could see 96L at the point in time is a 40mph TS and I'm being aggressive.
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Quoting xcool:
look out ROB BIG BIG MOM COME FOR YOU .

Send 96L into TX, we can really use the rain :O)! No wind, just bring a soaking rain to SE TX into N TX, thanks :O)!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.