Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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The most above average part of the atlantic is now off the NJ/DE coast. I was there just over a week ago, I did think it felt unusually warm. Also note the western gulf is below average where Alex went and will inhibit development of 96L slightly.
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1469. Daveg
Really no reason to focus on the possible path of 96L right now. The models can't really "lock on" yet.
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Quoting Levi32:


I was going to be a bit surprised if we didn't get a named storm out of one of those areas. We still might, but chances are lower than they were. The pattern will remain favorable though for this kind of stuff to keep popping up, and I'm sure we will have more circles to watch soon enough.


personally I think the area off the Eastern coast of the US has the best shot to become the next system
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1467. Asta
Just got 1 inch of rain in 15 minutes of a gusty downpour north of Covington, LA
Sure felt like a tropical band...
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1466. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Unless something changes fast, I don't see 96L developing anymore

amazing we had 4 circles for 4 areas of interest just 36 hours ago, and now just 36 hours later it is a real possibility that none of them will develop


I was going to be a bit surprised if we didn't get a named storm out of one of those areas. We still might, but chances are lower than they were. The pattern will remain favorable though for this kind of stuff to keep popping up, and I'm sure we will have more circles to watch soon enough.
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1465. IKE
This season, so far, reminds me of 2007...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1464. jaseone
Recon currently out on a non tasked mission to drop dropsondes to help seed the models for 96L it would seem.
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1463. SQUAWK
Quoting hydrus:
Alex Garcia maybe? Heavyweight boxer from the 1990,s...


The problem with that concept is that someone has to know where it's going in order to properly name it ----- I just don't see that happening. We would all be fighting over the name as soon as it became a blob. LOL
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Well MH09 there is some vort with that wave at 40W at 850 mb so yeah very interesting
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Jewish hurricane?


Only if the salt in the water is kosher...
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1460. Levi32
A track along the current BAM forecast would take 96L over the upwelled path of Hurricane Alex which drained a lot of heat out of the ocean in the southwest gulf. It has started to warm back up in there but is still very cold relative to what it was. A path over this would limit development of 96L if the mid-level center tries to work down to the surface.



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Quoting tropicfreak:


From now on, lets call TWC the Fashion Channel.


A friend and I used to call it the commerical channel in the 90's. Now it is the new lifetime. More stories than actual weather coverage!
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1458. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
ECMWF shows very little anywhere over the next 10 days


Correct. And what it does show heads west toward Mexico...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Levi32:
Models are getting locked onto 96L's mid-level center and taking it towards Mexico or southern Texas. The surface center is going up into southwest Louisiana or northeast Texas and bringing heavy rain and gales to them in 36 hours or so.



Unless something changes fast, I don't see 96L developing anymore

amazing we had 4 circles for 4 areas of interest just 36 hours ago, and now just 36 hours later it is a real possibility that none of them will develop
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Quoting StormW:


Well, it has been busy. Just pointing out that this is the calm before the storm.


Hi Storm, if this has been asked before I don't remember the response. What year would you compare this year to in the amount of storms, strength and tracking?
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1454. hydrus
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Goldstein?

It hit Mexico not New York lol
Alex Garcia maybe? Heavyweight boxer from the 1990,s...
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1453. Levi32
Models are getting locked onto 96L's mid-level center and taking it towards Mexico or southern Texas. The surface center is going up into southwest Louisiana or northeast Texas and bringing heavy rain and gales to them in 36 hours or so.

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Quoting StormSurgeon:


No,no...let's abbreviate...A-Rod will do it....


Again it made landfall in Mexico not New York lol

either way last names for storms are up there on the list of dumbest things ever invented along with scented toilet paper
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Hi everyone. 1424. My guess is 1995.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


No,no...let's abbreviate...A-Rod will do it....


Jewish hurricane?
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Quoting bdkennedy:
I think Hurricane's should have first and last names. Alex Goldstein would have been more memorable.


No,no...let's abbreviate...A-Rod will do it....
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Quoting StormW:
In regards to Levi's outstanding video...the portion he showed with the MJO Multivariate Index...the majority of those forecast models indicate the MJO to stick around in Octants 1 & 2, mostly Octant 2. Octant 2 is where we see most of our development. So, even though it seems like a dud season, this MJO Multivariate Index is a good Tropical development indicator.

Phase Plots of MJO Index Forecasts


what do you see for July?

If you did a monthly forecast I must have missed it, but how many systems to you expect?
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Great video Levi.....thanks.
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1445. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
824

WHXX01 KWBC 061848

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1848 UTC TUE JUL 6 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100706 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100706 1800 100707 0600 100707 1800 100708 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.6N 88.6W 22.2N 90.8W 23.8N 93.2W 25.2N 95.4W

BAMD 20.6N 88.6W 21.6N 90.2W 22.4N 91.9W 23.0N 93.8W

BAMM 20.6N 88.6W 21.8N 90.5W 23.0N 92.7W 24.0N 94.9W

LBAR 20.6N 88.6W 21.8N 90.4W 23.1N 92.4W 24.9N 94.8W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100708 1800 100709 1800 100710 1800 100711 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.3N 97.7W 28.2N 101.8W 30.1N 105.6W 32.3N 107.7W

BAMD 23.6N 95.9W 24.2N 100.3W 25.1N 105.3W 27.0N 109.4W

BAMM 24.9N 97.1W 26.3N 101.6W 27.9N 106.1W 30.0N 109.5W

LBAR 26.5N 97.1W 29.5N 100.4W 31.7N 101.0W 33.3N 99.4W

SHIP 46KTS 53KTS 57KTS 56KTS

DSHP 48KTS 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 88.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 19.8N LONM12 = 86.5W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 85.3W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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Thank you, sir.
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1443. gator23
Quoting StormW:
In regards to Levi's outstanding video...the portion he showed with the MJO Multivariate Index...the majority of those forecast models indicate the MJO to stick around in Octants 1 & 2, mostly Octant 2. Octant 2 is where we see most of our development. So, even though it seems like a dud season, this MJO Multivariate Index is a good Tropical development indicator.

Phase Plots of MJO Index Forecasts

seems like its been a pretty busy season to me so far... But thats because I pay attention.
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Quoting bdkennedy:
I think Hurricane's should have first and last names. Alex Goldstein would have been more memorable.
That would be insignificant and unnecessary.
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1440. Levi32
Quoting nola70119:


Amazing work.....Levi32. That was fascinating to hear. I have bookmarked your blog!


Thanks =)
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Quoting nola70119:


Amazing work.....Levi32. That was fascinating to hear. I have bookmarked your blog!
I haven't been able to look at the video but from the comments I'm hearing it must be promising. I think we should all be very proud to have someone like Levi here at WU.
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1438. ssmate
I'm also on a tornado chaser forum/chat room, and they may be even more vocal in criticizing TWC. As far as SPC (Storm Prediction Center) they tend not to criticize too much, though when SPC blows a high risk day (either because a major tornado outbreak didn't materialize or one did happen but no high risk was declared) the members do tend to take SPC to task a little. (I'll admit, I've done it too when they should have had a high risk day for the major tornado outbreak in MN a few weeks ago).

There's a tornado chat room? what a bunch of geeks. jk.
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96L 18Z runs

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting bdkennedy:
I think Hurricane's should have first and last names. Alex Goldstein would have been more memorable.


Goldstein?

It hit Mexico not New York lol
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1435. angiest
Quoting bdkennedy:
I think Hurricane's should have first and last names. Alex Goldstein would have been more memorable.


They could let Ubuntu come up with the names...
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Quoting Floodman:


You too? What a surprise that was...LOL


coke and Sailor Jerry's rum...my personal favorite. Has a vanilla taste to it, at least for the first couple. I don't live in a hurricane prone area but if i had to ride one out, those ingredients would be top of my shopping list.
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The tropical wave near 40W looks very ominous, could be a very big problem down the road when it gets into the Caribbean. Another wave emerging off of the African coast also looks very interesting.



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I'm bored, I'm going to the chat room. Anyone want to join??
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I think Hurricane's should have first and last names. Alex Goldstein would have been more memorable.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi,

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.


Amazing work.....Levi32. That was fascinating to hear. I have bookmarked your blog!
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1429. gator23
Quoting tropicfreak:


From now on, lets call TWC the Fashion Channel.

TWC The Where's Cantore?
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ECMWF shows very little anywhere over the next 10 days
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My guess is 2005
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1425. angiest
Quoting PtownBryan:


Give it another model run, itll change. It was forecasted to come right here into Houston yesterday. A better forecast will be along in the next 24-48 hrs. That is when more will be known. One thing for sure, no burn ban or drought here in SE Texas!!! Praise the Lord!


For the first time in a long time I wasn't worried about 4th of July revelers burning down my house this weekend with a defective firework. :)
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does anyone know what the record for highest number of storms, TD and up i guess, at one time? It would be interesting to me to go back and look at what that years conditions were like?

If anyones knows and cares to post the year i would appreciate it. I dont expect a breakdown just a year would be great. Thanks
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1423. gator23
Quoting Hurricanes101:


who told you to light the rum on fire?

he drank to much rum and set himself on fire.
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1422. angiest
Quoting Floodman:


Most here pick on the NHC because they tend to be more conservative in their forecasts...some defend them regardless, as well they should. Now, about TWC...they are attacked here roundly by all, and deservedly so...LOL


I'm also on a tornado chaser forum/chat room, and they may be even more vocal in criticizing TWC. As far as SPC (Storm Prediction Center) they tend not to criticize too much, though when SPC blows a high risk day (either because a major tornado outbreak didn't materialize or one did happen but no high risk was declared) the members do tend to take SPC to task a little. (I'll admit, I've done it too when they should have had a high risk day for the major tornado outbreak in MN a few weeks ago).
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Quoting gator23:

the TWC is aweful, just aweful. The NHC does an amazign thing when you think about it. they are able to tell you where a tropical weather system can impact within 186 miles 2 days out. Thats pretty remarkable.


From now on, lets call TWC the Fashion Channel.
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1420. gator23
Quoting Floodman:


Most here pick on the NHC because they tend to be more conservative in their forecasts...some defend them regardless, as well they should. Now, about TWC...they are attacked here roundly by all, and deservedly so...LOL

the TWC is aweful, just aweful. The NHC does an amazign thing when you think about it. they are able to tell you where a tropical weather system can impact within 186 miles 2 days out. Thats pretty remarkable.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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