Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline
Hi all,
Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.
Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.
Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.
Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.
Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.
Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.
Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.
96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.
The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.
The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.
The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.
Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.
Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).
Reader Comments
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Indeed is raining very hard and radar shows it might continue at least 5 more hours. Right now as of 2 am cdt I'm collecting water with a tray from rain and from the runoffs of the roof. 5 days without water, we desperately need water and outside is still raining!!!!
They're some rumours that two medium dams within northern Nuevo Leon have collapsed and also Sabinas river has crested and some friends living in Piedras Negras next to Del Rio it seems that the Rio Grande has crested there too. WATCH OUT LAREDO, McAllen and BROWNSVILLE!!!!!!
Naaaah, nothing tropical and significant about this lil ol' thang! ;P
It's called a T R O P I C A L Depression!
Were can I find the data about the levels of us rivers?
Here ya go
i just took a shower from water collected from rain and used only 10 liters!! :) that has to be green!!! xD
Talk about flip-flopping over 96L...lol.
The 00Z ECMWF doesn't do much w/96L at all.....or anything significant in the Atlantic....
2005, part 2? Ain't happening, #'s wise. I wonder if these experts will lower their #'s on their next update?
13-7-4 was my pick a few months ago. Maybe I won't be that far off.
After 96L I don't see much in the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days.
I think it is a good possibility they could lower just a little. I do think in August and September we could have storms form in the Caribbean and GOM comparable(intensity)to 2004 and 2005. The water temps are going to be slightly higher this year during the peak of the season than 2005 most likely. I do believe the #s will not be anything close to 2005 though. I do agree we will not see a named storm for another 7-10 days as well. The pattern right now shows something missing for sure. I don't think 96L is going to even get to TD status imo. We shall see.
I disagree completely. They will not be lowering there numbers. I think you will find that the beginning of the season has no effect on the end of the season at all...... just because the first half of the season may be a little on the quiet side.... doesnt mean late season will do the same. 2005 was a perfect example... also..... if we make it out of july with even just 3 named storms... that puts us only a few storms behind 2005... plus... in 2005 most forecasts called for only 12 to 14 named storms.... seasons are very unpredictible... im going in 17-12-5
GFDL and HWRF aren't strong with 96L either. Not much model support on 96L. Looks like a rainmaker for the Texas and possibly Louisiana coast and Mexican coast.
2005 had 7 by the end of July and 9, total, by August 4th.
so you agree... because if we made it out of july with 3 that puts us at 4 which is only a few behind 7
That's over twice as many. Average that out over a full 6 months. I think 2010 will be above average, just not as much as some thought and not another 2005.
If u think 7 is over twice as many as 4.... you need to go back to school
Morning, Storm!
I thought you meant 3 total(June and July) and not just 3 in July.
Think what you want...maybe you'll be correct and I'll eat crow.
yum
i See the llc just east of the tip of the yucatan
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 29.5N92W AT 0600 UTC IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. BROAD
LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL DEVELOP TODAY
ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 87W S OF 26N. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR 23N90W EARLY WED...27N94W EARLY THU...AND THEN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NE TEXAS THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
FROM THE E ALONG 28N THU THROUGH SAT.
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE W AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W S OF 13N IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND FOLLOW THE FIST WAVE THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE
AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI AND THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT.
the average for june is 1 storm every other year and for july i think its 1 a year
6 GMT coordinates were 19.6N and 86.1W...that was a few hours ago...5, I think.
Hope your right Ike, otherwise alot of reliable agencies would be wrong, I think only one group had below average WRC (Weather Research Center) maybe they will be right, but 8 systems?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2325344420100623
Current weather....
Cozumel, MX (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 34 sec ago
Overcast
73 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.75 in (Steady)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
Viewing: 651 - 701
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