Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline
Hi all,
Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.
Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.
Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.
Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.
Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.
Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.
Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.
96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.
The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.
The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.
The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.
Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.
Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).
Reader Comments
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95L looking as impressive as ever, inland. I guess all the spurious amounts of rain, mixed with high winds just didn't qualifiy as a TD and any extra alerts for the people of sLA.
HHhhhhhhmmm. NHC mistake? Oh, well.
Link (Sorry...thought I knew how to imbed a Youtube video. guess not - so here's the herding cats video link.)
95L sure didn't wanna let go.
96L putter putter and then KaBoom!
Or a guesstimate?
lol Greyelf! Reminds me of my workplace at the moment with all the layoffs happening.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
That's yesterdays.
That was for yesterday... but as IKE pointed out, it will probably be cancelled for today since it is over land.
Now the councilman who evaded police on a low speed six block chase, now thats news.....
Wonder if that dam is the one featured on the show build it bigger I think last season? It was flood control and I believe hydroelectric dam combined.
What is the latest?
Morning...I had .86 inches of rain yesterday from TD2.
The disturbance slowed down significantly overnight and is just off the Yucatan Peninsula coastline. The system is expected to cross the Yucatan today and impact S-Central Texas in a few days.
I disagree, 96L has a good shot in the Gulf.
I hear ya, Ike. We've had rain almost everyday the past 2 weeks from all this deep tropical moisture that has been in place. Once could argue that this was TS Bonnie. My friend in Dulac, Louisiana had about a half an hour of Tropical Storm conditions yesterday. No real damage to speak of other then a few small branches and sparse power outages.
Good morning "Killer," good to see you.
Hurricane Alex has killed 26 people, 22 are missing, 4 dead indirectly and has caused 1.21 billion dollars in damage. About 4 times as much damage as the entire 2009 hurricane season.
I've had 2.30 inches so far in July. I had 7.59 in June...7.62 in May. Approaching 18 inches since May 1st.
I honestly have not seen such a wet summer like this since 2005.
I know...it's not developed yet....still...no mention.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
927 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF METAIRIE...
WEST CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...
* UNTIL 945 AM CDT
* AT 922 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
ORLEANS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
METAIRIE BY 935 AM CDT...
Yup. But, I don't guess there's "anything" to talk about this morning. ROTFL. 95L was (is) a TD. One simply has to go back and look at all the loops to find a very clearly defined surface circulation (albeit small) and the system did maintain organized convection for more than 12 hours. 15 inches of rain? Yeah, not organized at all.
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
rut roh...that would be me
thanks
Desperate times as Alice shivers on coldest day.
An appeal has been launched for donations of blankets and dry bedding as rain forces people out of Alice Springs town camps on what is likely to be the town's coldest day on record.
The previous coldest day was in August 1966 when the maximum temperature reached just 7 degrees Celsius.
The temperature this afternoon has not gone above 6.3 degrees and almost 50 millimetres of rain have fallen since Monday.
The major service delivery agency for the town camps, Tangentyere Council, says it has run out of accommodation, dry firewood and blankets and does not know where people are going to go.
The council's social services manager, Margaret Reilly, says some people are taking shelter under a bridge over the Todd River.
"There's no firewood to be had in Alice Springs and there's no blankets to be had in Alice Springs," she said.
"People are in very, very damp, very, very cold situations at the moment.
"We've actually had a family whose tin shed has collapsed and we're trying to find a solution for them.
"So it's pretty desperate."
The council is asking that blankets be dropped off at the council, the Salvation Army or St Vincent de Paul offices.
© ABC 2010
Houston mets are downplaying it at this point as well. Basically thinking it will not impact the area or spill clean up. Apparentley, no one told them that their is not an invisible wall to kepp the wave action out of the area.
Also confirmed DWH tar balls in Galveston county....
I'm not sure BP has been too worried about any weather conditions since their "little mishap"!
I can't see 96L fizzling out, just wondering where will she land.
I'm in Lakeview and I see no signs of rotation. Do you see anything?
I can't see a tornado vortex signature on the doppler velocity...maybe its a small one.
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