Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline
Hi all,
Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.
Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.
Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.
Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.
Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.
Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.
Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.
96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.
The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.
The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.
The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.
Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.
Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).
Reader Comments
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Looks interesting, moving west?
cutting the yard- gambler, boy did you hit a nerve. The only time I HAVE to mow, is when we're in the Cone'o'Doom. It's a tradition.
And I do NOT like to mow.
Seems to be by my eye..
But then again I like Mauve too
That is the last thing left on my list too. Fire up the genny. Someone mentioned a product called Sta-bil that helps gas to last longer. Going to invest in some of that as well and get ahead on gas storage.
Just done that too, then got fuel while it is so called cheap...
but at $2.44 a gal is not that cheap....
But with all due respect I just donot like the
set up of 96L and the location....
Taco :o)
Nice pictures of the cloud formations -- they certainly seem to be low and ominous
Never hurts to be prepared! I guess I need to do the same and check out the generator!
Not worth the drama and all the yacking. Like Andy tells Opie in one episode, "all that's important is that you know."
Clearly, there was a "closed" low-level center, exposed at one point and void of convection, but it appeared to be moving back under the convection that was on its east side. And, evidently, it's still not quite through - though "tropical storm" force winds may be felt. LOL, but it's not a TD. Yeah, ok.
July 5, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE%u2026 High Pressure Ridge across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.
Comment
The High Pressure Ridge dominates across Jamaica for the next couple of days until an active Tropical Wave moves across the island mid-week.
24-HOURS FORECAST
Tonight%u2026 Partly cloudy.
Tomorrow%u2026 Mainly sunny morning with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly
across central and western parishes.
3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Wed%u2026 Mainly sunny morning with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across
central and western parishes.
Thurs/Fri%u2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, especially during the afternoon.
Regionally%u2026 An active Tropical Wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern Caribbean. The Wave should bring increased showers to the Jamaica area by Thursday.
nch/kjb
Easy now.
Storm you got a point. Hail to the exbloggers...GO 96L....Bring on the rain.
Dr. Rob was looking at radar for a "closed center of circulation." Nice. More jargon with no explanation like being "attached" to a front. Leaves it open to the cynics to attach whatever meaning they want. (Ha! And I am not cynical. LOL)
Edit: CCOC not COC
Murphy USA at University and Cottage Hill Rd
Walmart parking lot next to Pizza Hut....
:o)
Believe me, cleaning up small twigs and raking leaves and small debris is a lot easier on a shorter grass lawn than higher grass.
The original STORMTOP was quite a character extraordinaire on this blog. He made a secret word that he shared with some of the blog elders to identify himself just in case of a situation like this. So, ST2, 3 4 or 5000....whoever you are.....if you are the original....simply go ahead and e-mail one of us the "secret word".
Now that I think of it, he has several novels that, because they have to do with air or sea travel, are rather connected to wx....
What!!!
That ridge puts up quite a fight on that run. I hope it can do a bit better in real time. Lotta uncertainty there it seems. GFS 18Z doesn't pick up the storm, but it does show a similar "shaky ridge" in the NE gulf.
July 5, 2010 - 10:45 PM EDT - Invest 96L Likely To Become Bonnie Down The Road
The ethanol actually sucks up moisture and can absolutely ruin some engines. Be careful...
Keeps down the "skeeters" too!!!
Um - you mean water/moisture. Condensation is more like a verb...
Its called marsh for a reason Dr. Carver.
As so many here like to say,.."it strengthened over the everglades".
Same applies here.
And the Entry Header should read,
Arrive's....not arrive.
The devil is in da details.
Always.
No PHD required sometimes,..
Just saying
True. I look but I can't find EtOH free mogas very often. But I'm not near a refinery.
Suspect if you are near a refinery - you are more like to find EtOH free mogas.
Ethanol is frustrating to the industry.
Cosmic, besides the secret word, all he has to do is answer CORRECTLY these three questions:
1. What is his eye color?
2. Who's his favorite college basketball team?
3. Who all stayed with him during Katrina?
See? easy...if it's the real deal.
Nuff said there.
Woof!!!
Dats a fact, Jack
I had no idea. I'll have to drop by one day and say Hey...
Thats if you are not busy, but if it is like the one here
well I would not even get a chance... LOL
cause it is always very Busy....
Taco :o)
AOI
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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